Dundalk 4.00

Dundalk 4.00 Handicap - 14 run - Standard

 

I've learnt from talking to some AW Dundalk experts and watching with my own eyes not to get too blinkered by the Draw here as I'd always had a view that Low was best. It's not a negative to be drawn low but it's not the massive advantage it used to be in the early days from 2007 when the Course re-opened.

 

If I start at the top of the market and work down I can find reasons to think a few are too short in the market, and a couple a bit over-looked.

 

Just Let Go on handicap debut should benefit from the step up to a mile, far more suited to this on pedigree than the Sprint runs it's had, I don't know how good this mark is, we'll have to wait and see but I wouldn't be rushing to back it at the price. Blyton is second favourite and this is Course and therefore AW debut in Ireland, and I don;t think there is any market value there on Irish or UK form. Zahee is a CD winner, off a mark of 65, steps back up to a mile off a mark of 70 and will be a genuine danger but again the price each way is a bit restrictive for me.

 

Never back Down is another with a decent chance a CD winner off a mark of 56 around 6 weeks ago, rested since but hiked what looks a ridiculous 10lbs and may be they've scrubbed it off, and will take 2-3 runs to get fitness back and reduce that mark back down. One may be for the long term AW notebook when back under a mark of 60. Court Of Appeal was 3rd on Course debut and has an each way chance but another with an absence, this one 56 days and may just need the run. Cormac showed some minor promise on handicap debut but still probably needs to find a realistic mark.

 

I was left with a pair at decent each way Odds who looks to have chances better than prices suggest.

 

BROSNA EXPRESS for Jessie with Shane Foley up is a consistent bridesmaid with plenty of runner up efforts and still to lose the maiden tag. I think the 1 mile trip is best and no worries about this mark and really just deserves a bit of luck in running and this wouldn't be the toughest Dundalk race it's been in.

 

APPROACH THE CITY is silly odds on a few bits of form. A Course and Distance winner off 72 and a Course winner at 10 furlongs off a mark of 70, not may be that good now but still competent enough and with a few pace angles here the proven stamina may come in to play down the home straight and with a recent pipe-opener I think it can do some damage and be looking to place at least off a mark of 68 and drawn to get some cover down the back and to come with a late run swinging in. I quietly fancy a big run.