Downpatrick 4.40

SEAN - Downpatrick 4.40 - Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 furlongs - 15 run - Yielding to Soft

 

A competitive race with some enhanced betting opportunities and this is a very quirky yet always interesting tRack. Right handed and very undulating and in places very narrow, something of a big dipper feeling; especially down the hill as they turn right out of the short home straight. It suits some horses, others hate it, so hopefully we can find some value.

 

NUTTORIDGE stands out and at 7/2 does represent "win value" it was runner up over Course and Distance last time off a mark of 88, has Course winning form off a mark of 86 and a Chase win here too, off a mark of 90 it will take a decent in form horse to beat it and it's all about the "value" for me.

 

Tuff Days was very consistent prior to a tired looking fall last time, that was just 17 days ago and I just think in my heart of hearts that the horse needs a break, I Am Spider Man will also be a tough opponent of form but bled from the nose last time and failed to finish the time before that, so I would ideally want to see a completion and a return to previous decent form before getting involved financially.

 

At big odds for those who like to read the analysis deeply and have a few £1 e/w type bets I think the most scope could be with Gavin Cromwells ACROSS THE OCEAN @ 16/1, it's upped in trip on handicap debut, has shown very little so far to be honest but Keith Donoghue rides this track probably as well as anyone so hopefully a pointer to some value.

 

There are ultimately 3 others that I see as the main risks to NUTTORIDGE and at decent prices.

 

TICK ALONG is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 87, is definitely better over hurdles i think, and would be solid each way value. ROBINDEVIDASTAR is quite flexible in terms of trip but this intermediate trip may prove ideal, its failed to yet live up to some early promise and sat in the Tracker for 18 months but it has run competitively a number of times off marks in the mid 80's and looks well handicapped off a mark of 80. I just have a gut feel for this one today.

 

I'll just throw in ROMAN PARISH as a reserve, it rated just below Robindevidastar and showed some promise over Course and Distance last time and would have a live each way shout for some shrapnel to enhanced places.

 

TIPS (1) Nuttoridge (win) / (2) Tick Along / (3) Robindevidastar - (4) if you want some shrapnel - Roman Parish