Curragh 4.10
By Irish Racing (Sean aka Placespotter)
SEAN / PLACESPOTTER - The Curragh 4.10 Irish Cesarewitch - 2 miles 1 furlongs - 30 run - Yield / Soft (possible heavy rains)
A massive field and predictable battalions from Willie Mullins and Joseph O'Brien.
Sorting out the wheat from the chaff and possible also rans let's start at the big priced end and Trackers
Drop The Anchor and The very Man are in the TRACKER, both would have chances here on form and both are pretty consistent and just missed my final cut but feared. M C Muldoon is in the Tracker and a complete dark horse who could revive and at massive odds worth noting Joupe @ 125/1 , admittedly 20lbs wrong but one of the few outside of the top 12 in the market who actually has some winning form IF it gets really heavy over this sort of trip!
Of the more fancied runners it's hard to ignore the likes of Tower Of London (may not like it too deep), Teed Up (hard to be confident away from Galway), Nusret (low Flat handicap mark has excited many), Dawn Rising (rain would not boost this one's chances but feared if the rain doesn't materialise) ; Final Gesture (chances of an enhanced place). Powerful Aggie may be suited by the rain and was one of the last to miss the cut and Legendary Day is quietly fancied by our Northern expert, though a low grade 2 mile win at Ripon would not normally be a prep for this race, the Yard as we saw yesterday is very adept at placing horses to win.
There was one other that really confuses me and it's LOT OF JOY from the Mullins yard who was heavily backed in this last year but seems to have become a forgotten horse, any late market support should be noted as one to "keep up your sleeve".
Lots of enhanced places to 30 runners so I'll allocate 4 and a 1/2 point thus, in preference order-:
MY MATE MOZZIE is very solid on all form counts and usually very consistent, doesn't need rain but wouldn't be inconvenienced by it and would be very disappointing if not in the first 5-6 home.
ECHOES IN RAIN may be very aptly named, runner up in this race in the past, clearly a target race and another who really has no obvious weaknesses nor excuses.
FALCON EIGHT looks a cracking early price, 5th in this last year, assured stamina, any more rain a plus and off a very nice mark of 103 with a 5lbs claim to come off, really bullish about this one at a nice e/w price.
For some shrapnel bets-:
HMS SEAHORSE an excellent dual purpose horse who regularly knocks on the door and off a mark of 98 will be doing a rain dance but should be bang in contention whatever happens.
THE SHUNTER has impressed me a few times at 2 miles and not stopping at the line, I think it's over-priced and a cracking enhanced place e/w bet.
MOON COEUR gets 2 miles too and has proven itself in soft and heavy conditions, it's very much the type to run round and with assured stamina to pass a significant number as they tire in the final half mile and be getting closer at the finsih.
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Tips (1) My Mate Mozzie / (2) Echoes In Rain / (3) Falcon Eight / (4s) HMS Seahorse / (5s) The Shunter / (6s) Mon Coeur