Ballinrobe 8.20

Sean - Ballinrobe 8.20 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 16 run (some reserves) Yielding > Soft

 

A fair chance of some rain so the forecast Yielding could turn to the soft side and that may rule out a couple who'd have been quite well fancied on Good ground.

 

The one they all have to beat here is Sarah Beara, an impressive winner at Wexford on Friday night, a 7lbs penalty might not stop it going in again but it's never run here so by no means bombproof. Early markets are around 6/4, a win saver may be but I'm not adverse to taking it on. 

 

No Thanks was runner up last time here over 2 miles 5 and a half furlongs and is a clear danger, bit it's one of those that may not welcome too much rain and as it offers no real each way value we'll leave it off the list for today. Sixhandsinmypocket has stamina concerns too especially if it turns softer, Knocknagappach is another who has yet to find its optimum trip although it does have unfulfilled potential and was only reluctantly by-passed so would be my nominated reserve tip if any late non-runners.

 

I'll TRACK Littlewinkelstar who has shown some promise over shorter trips having been Pulled Up and a Faller over 3 miles in the P2P fields, and I also think there may be a win down the line in the first reserve That's About Right who would be a danger with a run and who is already in the Tracker. Ask The Leader has won at 2 miles 5 and 1 1/2 furlongs and is another we can't completely discount although it does appear to be out of form currently. Ballydangan is another who has shown some glimmers of potential in P2P and early Maiden races over shorter trips.

 

The main contenders though I think in preference order to take on the top of the early market are KINGSTON KID who was an early faller last time but who had a couple of place runs prior to that off marks in the mid 90's. It's solid form in the context of the race and the fall was certainly a blip based on past form, I can see no reason why it can't be in the first 4 home here with a clear round. TOWNHILL PENNY has had 2 inexplicably poor runs since twice finishing runner up at this sort of trip, Its won off 90 and placed off 94 and the slight easing of the ground may help and I've no stamina concerns and the early price looks generous.

 

At bigger odds it is certainly worth having some speculative shrapnel on BATTLE OF BENURB who is back below its last winning mark over 3 miles over Hurdles and who is capable of placing at nice odds here. Slightly more speculative with less experience is BALLAGH STAR who I noted running on well past beaten horses over 2 miles and 6 furlongs lst time and a repeat of that could yield a very nice each way return at anything over 33/1.

 

Tips (1) Kingston Kid (2) Townhill Penny / ..if you want shrapnel (3) Battle Of Benurb / (4) Ballagh Star