Ascot 3.20

 

This is a tough race to call normally and can have big priced winners.

 

The NH Course at Ascot is under-used and often suffers from small fields and it's a quirky track and this being an early season race it tends to suit horses targeted at it arriving fit and ready to go. It's a rhythm track and a prominent bold runner can often slip the field and the straight is not particularly long in the contact of NH racing.

 

It's a competitive race as always and it was hard to rule out much at all.

 

Johnbb for Tom Lacey is a progressive horse to watch this season, I just feel on balance he'll need this and benefit from it. One More Fleurie is also an upwardly mobile progressive Chaser who has won the last 4 races it's completed for Ian Williams. I don't think it would welcome anything softer than Good to Soft though and may just also need the run. Vinndication is a worthy favourite, another who is definitely upwardly mobile, but at the price and despite a good record fresh, I think there are others at more appealing prices to have an investment in today.

 

If those are the more progressive types a few with more experience deserve close examination. 

 

Captain Chaos is aptly named and can run "choke out". It has won over Course and Distance off a mark of 135, usually needs a run though and although Dan Skelton will have him fit enough and they may try to make every post a winning Post, I can't help feel it'll set the race up for something else. Real Steal is a very interesting choice for Paul Nicholls who will be eyeing the prize for sure. It could be "thrown in" on some Irish form for Willie Mullins and has had a run already, it's hard to really work out where the horse is though at this stage mentally more than physically, but a big run would be no surprise. Jerrysback is being well backed, placed in this race last season and hasn't had the benefit of a run yet this season, may be one for the next meeting here with that run under it's belt!!

 

It's impossible to ignore REGAL ENCORE , Course specialist, won this last year, 13 years young now and the tRainer is pretty bullish about it's chances. Can't write it off and certainly one to populate any placepot forms and possibly a Tricast perm.

 

I was left though with 3 who will form the basis of my selections.

 

LARRY has had a run and an unfortunate "unseat rider! on seasonal debut. Gary Moore is always one to be feared around the M25 / London NH Tracks and this one has the side story of the family needing a "pick me up". It's run well in soft and heavy so any rain will be a nice bonus and it just looks primed to run a big race here.

 

SOJOURN from the same stable as Regal Encore is a strapping and progressive chaser. The Trainer thinks he's got him fit enough, it's won on soft and heavy and you'd think if the ground did turn out to be any better than Good to Soft he may be saved for another day, so with that reassurance that it'll run only if conditions suit, we'll have a wager on a horse who should be in everyone's 10 to follow in my opinion.

 

I can't resist a small touch on MISTER MALLARKEY, annoying and frustrating as he is, can run awful races getting detached and losing interest but on a "going day" perfectly capable of making a mockery of any form analysis. Colin Tizzard has got a run in to the horse already, it needed it and will come on bundles for it, it goes best left handed, trip is ideal and the mark is at a level it has no excuses off. If one is going to pop up again in this race in the 20/1 range, it may well be this one.