Thursday 23rd May
By Irish Racing (MG)
Limerick 8.00 Handicap Chase - 2 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Good
I think KILMURRY JJ is the one they all have to beat here and anything around 4/1 is good value for either a win bet or crafty e/w banker with a field of 16 and the first reserve being a potential really strong dark horse (Getaway Master).
Lilian Bland looks on a high mark and may just be exposed for stamina at this trip, Electric Dreamer would have a squeak but not a compelling enough case, Tuff Days is a really dark horse, a decent hurdle record and makes Handicap Chase debut but has had a rather unconventional couple of runs in a P2P and a Hunter chase, so by no means a novice over fences, I rate him a real danger. Cosmic Blizzard is worth TRACKING on Handicap Chase debut, upped in trip with some decent P2P form and Song For My Father is not lightly overlooked when you look at the Trainer form.
If we have the win saver / e/w banker punt on KILMURRY JJ , I was left with 3 others that I'd be most confident about, so with 16 runners and enhanced places, I'll list them in preference order for your consideration as to how deep you go.
GLENMALURE LODGE ticks every box for me with the exception of race fitness, but having looked at the record fresh on seasonal debut or after a break, I am minded to make it a strong selection and no excuses based on all the previous evidence. STARLIGHT CATO is a solid contender, has race fitness and off a nice mark, a spot of rain would help but I am confident of a big run in a decent race. The 4th rated and there mainly on "price" for those who like a longer shot is 16 FATHER JED @ 28/1 who has decent Course form, a Distance winner, below last winning mark and will enjoy the ground, he's a 13 year old now but by no means over the top.
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Limerick 8.30 Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good
At the top of the market and tightly packed at 5/1 or under we have Invictus Machin, Bocellis Voice and Surf Club. Both Invictus Machin and Bocellis Voice are upped in trip against some with proven stamina and I think Surf Club would be at ;least twice if not treble the price but for being a Willie Mullins horse. Personally I will have a small T/Cast perm but I genuinely want to take these on for win and place purposes.
It's hard to ignore the Yard form of broken ice , Favouri Longhi was unlucky last time but not overly compelling before that, Gateau De Miel looks a solid TRACKER for HDB and Rachel and will surely come on for the run and I'll also TRACK Definitedare who was a Course winner last year but usually needs 2 or 3 runs.
I think that given their experience and past form that both HE FITZ IN a Course and Distance winner and placed off this sort of mark is a fit and very solid option here at double figure Odds and NAZINE for whom a step up over 3 miles could really suit on visual form evidence at a similar price could both run in to the first 4 places at least. I would not totally rule out 9 The Dabbler @ 25/1 who usually improves for his first run either at a big price in what could be a race to throw up plenty of future summer jumping winners.
(MG)