Roscommon 8.20
By Irish Racing (MG)
Roscommon 8.20 - Handicap - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 16 run - Yielding to Soft
Some recent rain has softened the ground and with some more forecast until mid morning I think that the Going will be on the soft side of yielding. There are 3 reserves, so we should end up with a field of at least 13-14 if some of the Firm Going specialists are pulled out.
At the head of the market I'm happy to take on Lady Christa, Polemon ; Avondale and Status Green, none look particularly well handicapped now after some decent wins and form and none look particularly strong on soft ground, either on form so far or lack of experience of it.
Metamorpheus may enjoy the softer Going but is so far better over Hurdles, Secret Rock won the corresponding race last year but runs off a mark 11lbs higher, stablemates Jawhary and Highland King are both feared but neither are proven at this trip and the underfoot conditions should make it a true test of stamina. I think Patrick Street has a race in him and will TRACK from today but I do think 10 furlongs is probably the limit of his range. At big odds, Rushford @ 33/1 was my clear 4th best rated and this ex Sir Mark Prescott horse could easily outrun its odds and should any of my top 3 rated horses not run, he would definitely be worth a small investment.
My top 3 in order of preference are FORLIO who won at Limerick on soft ground over 11 furlongs off a mark of 60, ran strongly to the line there and a mark of 62 looks very competitive in ground we know the horse likes, KING ARTHUR'S SWORD put up an impressive run after a break of over 18 months last time and will surely come on for the run and the booking of Colin Keane adds to my confidence. My third rated is NUMIDIA who had a Distance win at Fairyhouse off a mark of 53, a placeed run off a penalised mark of 61 and who should find conditions to its liking enough to cope with a mark of 64 here. (MG)