Haydock 2.25
By Irish Racing (MG)
Michael - Haydock 2.25 - Handicap - Class 3 - 1 mile - 15 run - Going Good (some possibly heavy showers around lunchtime)
At the top end of the market are some in form and unexposed types, Isle of Jura has been very impressive winning last twice off marks of 71 and 83 and now is up to 97, it's not the handicap mark that puts me off quite frankly as much as those 2 wins were on the Straight mile Courses at Newbury and Newmarket, this is round a tricky right hand bend and I don't think a draw in the Car Park particularly helps. Poet Master may be more of a danger after 2 facile wins at 7 furlongs, upped to a mile on Handicap debut. Kathab is a typical unexposed Haggas 3 year old in a Saturday Handicap really, very well supported in the market, when these fire then they tend to win with ease but on balance they fail more than they fire and at the price i fear it but can't be tempted in with a field with some very solid handicap form and a lot more experience.
Fantastic Fox who won this in 2021 is noted and a danger but hasn't been at its best for a while, Bodorgan may be suited by getting off good to firm turf and is another unexposed and therefore dangerous 3 year old.
I'm more confident though in proven form rather than potential here and I think that HAFEET ALAIN who likes to race prominently and from the front and who gets a nice berth in Stall 6 to do that can swing them in and make a bold bid again from the front. It's easy to get trapped on the far rail swinging in and although horses can and do come with a wet sail wide or often through late gaps on the far rail, I'll be disappointed if this one isn't in the first 3 home. There is potential for some heavy showers and any rain that falls and any overwatering that may have been done too, will play in to the hands of HARSWELL DUKE at big odds and together with BILLYB who has wins off marks of 70 and 77, and a place off a mark of 83 including over Course and Distance and who is finally back at that mark , is well worth a shrapnel bet - both are around the 25/1 mark.
My other main investment though will go on to HELM ROCK and I suggest you get on asap, a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 86 last September, its trodden water really off marks over 90 in unsuitably firm ground on occasions, back below 90 here (mark of 88) and with very much the course specialist Richard Kingscote booked, he really did jump off the page at decent early Odds.
Tips (1) Hafeet Alain / (2) Helm Rock - if you want shrapnel e/w to enhanced places (3) Billyb and (4) Harswell Duke