Galway - Monday 29th July
By Irish Racing (MG)
GALWAY 7.10 Handicap - 2 miles 1 furlong - 20 run - Soft (on Flat Course) - a few showers
There are so many myths about plots and plans at this Meeting that you can get sidetracked by both looking for something that isn't there, but also being blindsided by focussing too much at the top of markets and on Mullins and Elliott in particular.
If we dissect the race into the top of the market, the most likely decent each way punts, and any outsiders who may actually have some sort of form claims, I think the picture each day will be more focussed and hopefully lead to more overall profit.
There are 20 runners, places and enhanced places to 5-6th place and therefore value to be had. I think on this occasion STAKING ADVICE is justified and warranted.
At the top of the market four horses stand out; Lot Of Joy from the Mullins yard, the favourite for the 2023 UK Cesarewitch and seemingly primed again, lets though point out that this horse promised a lot on 5-6 runs last year and delivered diddly squat. Teed Up won this race last year (and a second in 3 runs in 7 days) and is primed to do so again. Alphonse Le Grand won the Chester cup in May, the Pitmans Derby at Newcastle a few weeks ago and he comes here in great form, but has never run at Galway and has a 6lbs penalty. Enfranchise won a Hurdle race at this meeting last year and has a big shout and VERY interesting to point out that he and La Hacienda both ran twice here at the 2023 Festival and both won one of their two races. The other interesting ditty, those horses are Drawn 20 / 12 / 19 / 17 respectively - so Teed Up may have a far more suitable draw of those four.
At big prices though we have the likes of Drop The Anchor, winner of a Naas Handicap off a mark 0f 84 running off a mark of 89 with a 7lbs claim at 50/1, Mt Leinster and Lord Erskine always dangerous floaters in markets like this and even at the bottom of the market at 100/1 we have Chiricahua who has had 1 run since a 15 month break but who has best form in soft and is very well handicapped on a few bits of 2021 Flat form.
In the midfield of the betting markets we have the likes of Pinot Gris, a progressive 4 year old in form on soft and at this trip for Gavin Cromwell. Shajak who was third in this race last year off a mark of 91, runs off 92 here but off for 315 days for Gordon Elliott and Metier, who may be off top weight for Harry Fry but whose form in winning the 2023 Chester Cup looks very solid and compelling form. Throw in the likes of a typical Mullins dark horse in Spasiba and a few others and we have a real puzzle to solve.
I'm going for a 1/2 point each way on PINOT GRIS who I think is the horse with the most scope in the race, SHAJAK whose fitness I will take on trust but who would not be here I don't think if he wasn't ready to run and METIER who will love the conditions and who is probably the class horse of the race. I certainly think that a 1/4 point each way on LA HACIENDA and ENFRANCHISE could pay a nice enhanced place return and I don't think anything will be finishing better up the hill if the pace is too fast early than LORD ERSKINE. That would be a total point stake on the race of 4.5 points. For the romantics amongst us, I'll wager £1 e/w (or a Euro of course in Ireland) on Drop The Anchor @ 33/1 and Chiricahua @ 100/1 as their basic form suggests both are over-priced! (MG)
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