York 3.00 (Northern)
By Flat Turf UK (The Advisor)
York 3.00 Clipper Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 19 run - Good to Firm
We got the draw right yesterday but it is just as much about pace on the Straight Course as we saw in the closing race where the top 4 came from high and low numbers. On the 7 furlong and Mile Courses though a low draw can be an advantage as you don't want to be 3-4 deep around the tun in to the straight.
This is a very deep race and I have only left out the likes of the favourite Elnajmm and a few other more exposed types drawn 15 or higher on account of their draw.
Looking at those at higher prices, there will be far worse 33/1 pokes this week than Austrian Theory who I fancy to finish in the first 8 home from a nice draw, New Image too, one of a whole cluster from the O'Meara yard could run a big race from Stall 12, I note that the stables Mirsky, who may need some cut in the ground is in the TRACKER and one not lightly discounted and also in the Tracker are the 3 year old Thunder Run and Theoryofeverything.
I got down to a shortlist of 6 of the 19 runner field after a lot of deliberation and after a lot of soul searching the two to miss out on the top 4 were Bennetot (also a Tracker horse) who finally franked some good French form last time and who should run a big race from Stall 2 for Billy Loughnane and Aragon Castle, drawn 10 and who was a shade unlucky last time and whose form ties in very closely with one of my top 4 James McHenry.
With 14 runners and plenty of enhanced odds, I suggest the top 3 for all and if you want a small 4th poke then it's all laid out below in preference order.
I can't see any reason not to invest in HOLLOWAY BOY for a yard in cracking form who has barely put a foot wrong all season, drawn in Stall 1; is tactically ideal, a slight ease in terms of the sort of races he's been running in with merit and the collateral form looks very strong. BLUE FOR YOU is a Course and Distance specialist with wins off marks of 95 and 99, drawn in Stall 4 off a mark of 99, he's my highest rated of the very dangerous O'Meara team, he is more exposed than some but the course form is compelling.
I can't leave BOPEDRO out of calculations either, now 8 years old but still running with great merit in all of the key races, he is drawn in Stall 13 but likely to be ridden to drop in until they straighten up and to then come 4-5 deep off the rail and if this horse gets a sniff of the line he is very dangerous, especially here. My 4th rated, is the already mentioned JAMES McHENRY who ties in closely with Aragon Castle, visually you could argue that Aragon Castle could outstay JMc but key is the draw and the front running style of JAMES McHENRY who I fancy to run very prominently and to kick on from the 2 furlong pole from Stall 5 and it's the likelihood that he could avoid scrimmaging in behind by running from the front that entices me in. (North)