York 1.45

 

The key here is the 96 yards. It's an unusual distance, can find out an out and out 5 furlong speedster and can just be a fraction too short for a 6 furlong specialist.

 

Course and Distance form a big asset, jockeyship a bigger asset. The Draw can favour low numbers especially on Good to Firm Going, indications though that heavy Going can suit high numbers and a well ridden horse from a middle draw can oblige, with luck in running key and the track does run in to a bit of a funnel.

 

We could make cases for most of the field, but I'll wager a total of 3 points with 3 x sporting each way trackers (1/2 point each way each).

 

Where to start, many use trends and fair play to them, an ideal way of narrowing a big field down to more manageable numbers. I think in a season like this though where instead of the usual 5 months of form in 2020 we have everything concertinaed down in to 3 months, the old fashioned way, looking at every horse on its merits is the best way. 

 

A thorough look at 22 narrowed down to 9 and from that I discarded Jonah Jones and Hyperfocus, the former didn't look like the winner of this to me and the latter needs rain and won't probably get it in time. Aplomb was inexplicably poor here at the end of last season, is a Course winner, may have been tired last year in that run but not appealing at the price. Soldiers Minute drawn in 2 has Course form probably best on Good to Good to Firm, drops in trip, just a bit too high with the handicapper for me. Watchable 5th in this in 2019 off 97, runs off 99 drawn high and Acclaim The Nation, who may be needs Good to Firm all have excellent chances, big dangers and fears but discarded at the final cull.

 

So I arrived at my final 3, I can't split them, I'm happy with the logic as follows

 

MUSCIKA is I think over-priced. a runner up off 84 and a winner here off 87 in recent times. Has older form here on Good to Soft when runner up off a mark of 91. Probably best at 6 furlongs but has a prominent running style and if upsides any 5 furlong specialist with 100 yards to run, I'd take muscika to sustain a run longer. Drawn 13 can run down the middle of latch on to pace on either side, with enhanced place Odds I fancy a big run

 

COPPER KNIGHT has good Course form at 5 furlongs and often finishes strongly, OK at this trip as proven several times, drawn in 15 and another i think the market has ignored a bit.

 

A MOMENTOFMADNESS close off a mark of 95 in this in 2019, very interesting now off a reduced mark of 91, drawn high in stall 22.

 

I'm going middle to high, if the race is dominated by low drawn horses, I'll take it on the chin but i feel pace is mostly in that middle to high half of the draw.