Southwell 5.45
By Flat Turf UK (The Advisor)
THE ADVISOR - Southwell 5.45 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles and 1/2 fulong - Good (bit of rain possible so assume G/S) - 14 run
A number of these are unproven at the trip and with 14 runners some enhanced places to aim at with several Bookies.
At the top of the market I am happy to take on the likes of Catoaba who won early in May at Warwick but then fell when beaten later in the month. It's been off since and may just need to restore confidence and race sharpness. Barely Famous was Pulled up over fences at Market Rasen at the weekend after an early mistake, is 12 lbs below its last winning Hurdles mark but best on genuine Good to Firm summer ground and another one who may need a confidence booster. Blazing Court is upped in trip but would be a serious danger if getting it, they do seem to go a fair lick round here though and there are others with more assured stamina.
Haveyougotmymoney was runner up last time after a wind operation and is another danger but not a lot of wriggle room each way in the early price. Let It Shine is upped markedly in trip and the hardest in the field to have a definite view on so has to fall in to the "could be anything" bucket for now. Oneway Express would be another to watch closely given connections.
I was left with a short list of 4 of the 14 runners and am most keen on MILANESE ROSE who is also flagged up in the TRACKER. We know the Tard is in fine form, one of the better and more experienced jockeys rides, signs are that a win is due and off a mark of 73 with the handy 6lbs Claim looks rock solid each way. FANTOMAS runs for another in-form Yard that of Nigel Twiston-Davies, signs of running in to some form just under 3 months ago, the break doesn't concern me as I suspect they didn't want to jar the horse on summer ground too many times and another with a cracking each way chance.
It's impossible to rule out the veteran RACING SPIRIT over this Course and Distance and in this type of race, it knows its way round here blindfolded and has a win off a mark of 78, numerous placed runs off marks in the mid 70's and runs off 73 today. At BIG ODDS and for a £1 e/w type bet, I think that BETTYS BELLE is considerably over-priced on the basis of a couple of placed runs for Ben Pauling at this sort of trip and after a warm up for new connections who aren't mugs by any stretch of the imagination, I think the price is too high to totally ignore!
Tips (1) Milanese Rose / (2) Fantomas / (3s) Racing Spirit (4 - have £1 e/w on Bettys Belle IF you can get 50/1 plus)