Salisbury 4.30
By Flat Turf UK (The Advisor)
The Advisor - Salisbury 4.30 Handicap - Class 4 - 6 furlongs - 13 run - Soft
The conventional wisdom on Soft ground here is that a High Draw is a distinct advantage. It's a climb all the way to the line so suits those who have solid form at 6 furlongs and preferably a bit further and not suited to a speedy 5 furlong type at 6 furlongs.
Katy Kontent is a worthy favourite from the best stall if the trend continues and is the one they all have to beat. Fine on Good to Soft but yet to encounter really soft conditions and at the price on that basis I am happy to oppose. Tiriac IS in the TRACKER and one we are sure will win races. It ran very well when runner up on Soft at Goodwood last week, the price reflects that and the elephant in the room is definitely a draw in Stall 2. Frankly there are a couple we fancy more today for that reason. Lord Uthred should have scope at this trip and is one that looks to be finding its feet, was clear 3rd best rated from stall 8 and should be regarded as reserve if either selection is a non runner. Maysan (not to be confused with Mayson) makes British debut with some quite interesting fRench form where the Going is predominantly soft in the Provinces. Its impossible to know how accurate the handicap mark is but stall 12 should give it a chance to run on its merits and I'm sufficiently interested at the price to suggest a £1 e/w investment just to scratch my curiosity.
My clear top 2 rated though are HAYMAKER and MARSHAN DAN.
HAYMAKER takes a notable drop from Class 2 to Class 4 . The results in Class 2 at first sight aren't anything to shout about but deeper analysis suggests the horse hasn't had much luck in running nor with the Draw on occasions and if you look closely at the run in the Portland, it did all it possibly could from the Draw. It really should be winning this from Stall 11 today.
MARSHAL DAN has plenty of soft ground form off marks in the mid 80's, is exposed and seemingly out of form compared to a few but usually perks up in this type of ground in the Autumn and a mark of 84 with a good 3lbs Claimer up gives it a sporting each way chance at a nice price from Stall 9.
Tips (1) Haymaker / (2) Marshal Dan