Royal Ascot 5.00 and through the Card

 

It's hard not to take account of the obvious draw bias but it can change quickly here and it has on occasions flipped for no obvious reason other than pace angles.

 

I am happy to avoid Chipstead, Khanjar, Probe and Orazio at the head of the market as i'm not overly keen on any of them and I think there are better options and definitely better value elsewhere.

 

A quirk of fate sees a trio of old favourites and grand servants in Summerghand, Mr Waygu and Bielsa get prime draws down the middle and these wonderful veterans are always likely to "pop up" and all are still capable of winning marquee races, frankly though if they do that today then I'll be seriously deflated that some younger and progressive types aren't as good as I truly believe they are and it may be a signal of the changing of the guard.

 

Outside of my main selections I would be wary of Hurricane Ivor who I know Sean is very keen on here, it's well handicapped and  drawn but the Good to Firm Going puts me off today. Spangled Mac ran on Thursday and has a solid chance of reappearing, and if I had a reserve it would be APOLLO ONE who just lost out to MUMS TIPPLE as a shrapnel each way bet . MUMS TIPPLE has a lovely draw, a bit to find on the pure handicap but some Course and Distance form and with Frankie Dettori in irresistible form is best backed early, you know its 100,000,000/1 that Frankie could win on all of his rides today, but if anyone can, he can!

 

My top 4 though are put up with very significant confidence and in preference order.

 

FIRST FOLIO ran well in this race last year when finishing 6th, is a year older and wiser and should really be approaching peak powers and with luck in running has to have an outstanding chance. TABDEED is a really silly price in my opinion and take the best price  you can and early. It's very well handicapped on Goodwood Stewards Cup form from last year and should be noted early for that race as well, its drawn 22 so a prime berth hopefully and I'll be very disappointed if it doesn't finish in the first 6 home. 

 

FLAMING RIB is a progressive 4 year old and whilst we may see the very best of this one next year it really does look to be well handicapped here despite top weight and may yet be a bit better than a top level handicapper. I think it's overpriced and under-rated.  Finally LETHAL LEVI is another who is progressing and on a career high mark and who may not yet have reached a ceiling. Stall 10 may give it a chance if the current bias lasts and also be low enough should the far side suddenly come to the fore, lets not forget what Jimi Hendrix did with that solo run down that side on Wednesday, although in watering for the Round Course I do wonder if they have left the middle to high considerably drier. 

 

If we can't win it would be great to see the "old boys" deliver but I really am as confident as I can be that we have listed the winner as a tip!

 

 

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Let's look at the other races and try to crack the placepot.

 

 

Our in-form Northern expert is very keen e/w on 6 Matnookh and 3 Golden Mind for Richard Fahey so we suggest 1/2 point e/w on both, a few Irish runners could out run their odds too but at big shrapnel prices both Count Palatine and Carolina Reaper were added to Tracker as eye-catchers on debut runs.

 

Placepot wise we'll play safe with 12 + 16

 

 

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3.05  (Sky go 5th - all others to 4th - we'll settle to 4th)

 

For shrapnel bets at nice e/w odds both Age Of Kings and Quar Shamar from leading Irish Yards may be over priced and yet to show their hand, whilst the Placepot pair of 10 Holloway Boy, who drops in trip with some Course and Distance form to boot and 2 The Antarctic for AP both look likely to give hot favourite Covey plenty to think about.

 

 

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If you want some e/w shrapnel then the Kevin Ryan trained Emeraaty Ana would be very well handicapped if returning to best form here and represents good value as does Big Invasion, a US raider whose form there reads very impressively. The Placepot pair of Rohaan and Sacred look cracking 1/2 point e/w pokes too.

 

 

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4.20 -: really one for the connoisseurs and for Placepot we'll perm 8 + 1

 

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5.00 - see detailed analysis above with 15 + 16 the very sporting placepot perm

 

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We'll side with the top end of the market with 15 and 17 for the placepot.

 

Both 9 Cuban Dawn who seems to be crying out for 10 furlongs and 12 Have secret who brings some extremely solid London Cup form look cracking 1/2 point e/w bets.

 

For some shrapnel, Liberty Lane looks great value based on seasonal debut runner up behind Waipiro who franked the Derby form when winning here on Thursday and very much franked again yesterday,  and Laafi, who patently didn't get 12 furlongs in the Lingfield Derby trial has been overlooked by the market back at what may be an optimum 10 furlongs.

 

 

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PLACEPOT PERM

 

12 + 16

10 + 2

10 + 15

8+ 1

15 + 16

15 + 17

 

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6.10 is frankly a very poor renewal of what has often been a good get-out race, the market looks about right, so we'll make a crafty dash for the Car Park and head off home for another year!