Leicester 4.20

 

I don't think there is much of a draw bias on this stiff 6 furlongs Course on "Good" ground, there will be enough cut after some rain in the recent week or so and no excuses really for anything. I think may be either side of the middle berths and the middle is the best place to be but as always being where the pace is can be an advantage, although this is not a Course where you want to expend energy too soon as they go downhill, then up a deceptively steep climb before plateauing out near the finish line.

 

At the head of the market is Ryan Moore's mount Angel Amadea, a 9 race Maiden who drops to 6 furlongs with some pretty average form and I think the price is in the jockey booking. It has a chance but I'm happy to oppose it at the price.   

 

OASIS GIFT @ 7/1 ** - from the Clive Cox yard makes its handicap debut and has moved to the Cox yard from the Andrew Balding yard. It won at 5 furlongs in soft conditions and certainly has the scope which makes it the one they all have to beat if you fancy a small win saver. Soi Dao is the other one who may have some untapped scope but all its best form has been on the AW which is hard to quantify, but would be a real danger if transferring that to turf.

 

Hagia Sophia is very much in form in Class 6 races and takes a step up to Class 5 but off a new mark of 56 up from marks of 49 and 52 may be vulnerable. Strike is top weight and for good reason after a win and a couple of 3rd places, it has a solid each way chance but may be better on more firm summer ground. Misscall was in good form until its most recent run here, its possible to excuse firmer Going last time but I just have a hunch she may be over the top for the season. 

 

Blackheath has been better than this in his time, but has been regressive for a while. It is though on a very dangerous mark if and when it finds a level it can win off and rates a danger too. Another dark horse on handicap debut is Burgoo Beauty and the yard is in form although the horse isn't an obvious winner on its Course performances so far.

 

Impeller at a big price has a Course and Distance win off a mark of 68, it won at Doncaster in July off a mark of 66, it pops up from time to time and could again off a mark of 69. I just fancy its stablemate a little more though for a shrapnel bet and that one is SOLLER BAY. SOLLER BAY had been run predominantly at a mile before a win last September over 6 furlongs at Doncaster. It's had a quiet season and they have flirted with 6 and 7 furlongs but the best run so far in a disappointing campaign was last time and it's a horse that may just be coming to hand. It's 5lbs below its winning mark last September and worth a small investment (if it didn't run then IMPELLER would be the reserve).

 

My main fancies though are MISS BELLA BRAND and SPECIAL MAYSON . 

 

MISS BELLA BRAND is very consistent and solid in this Grade and ticks all of the right boxes in terms of trip, and Going and is a filly who seems to do well at this time of the year. The handicap mark is a little on the high side but it's hard not to like her consistency and Autumn form.

 

SPECIAL MAYSON is a bit more speculative, Pam Sly does very well with a small stable of horses and this one ended 2021 season with a flourish and form figures of 2-1-1 off marks of 61-62-64 at 7 furlongs. Its had a slow year this year but has come down to an attractive mark of 82. It has been running a bit "choke out" at 7 furlongs and a stiff 6 furlongs may be ideal.I'm quietly confident of a big run today. Stall 18 is a niggle I have to be honest but not a massive handicap and it should be able to run to its merits.