Epsom 2.35
By Flat Turf UK (The Advisor)
THE ADVISOR - Epsom 2.35 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile and 1/2 furlong - 16 run - Going - Good (some rain yesterday so could just be on soft side)
As you'd imagine a very competitive Handicap and as always this is a track where you ignore proven Course form, proven form in big field Handicaps and "the occasion" at your peril. The now 2 day Meeting has lost much of its lustre over the past few decades but the indications are that bumper Crowds are expected (especially tomorrow) and the nature of the Course is that this can unsettle some horses. It all adds to the difficulty in solving the puzzle.
At the top of the market are Totally Charming, whose major credentials are derived from the AW tracks and Excel Power, who is in form, 3-3 at 1 mile but penalised and also not a horse with Course experience. I'll take both on whilst seeing them as major dangers.
Revich is a consistent horse who deserves to win one of these races and had genuine bad luck at Chester before and during the race, the temperament to handle preliminaries just puts me off but another I respect massively. Bowland Park has Course and Distance winning form in a Class 4 race, is sure to make a bold bid but I just don't think its quite good enough to win off this mark. Larado is another with Course and Distance winning Class 4 form, its 6lbs above that win mark but from Stall 2 is the type who could lead them all a merry dance if breaking fast.
Fantastic Fox has been put up by some respected experts who work for various Bookies, gets 11lbs pull from Excel Power but this is it's Course debut and despite being progressive the lack of a run here just also put me off. Oh This is Us is a Course and Distance winner and off a mark of 108 no less, it runs off 92 here and that's eye-catching in one way, concerning in another as it reflects regressive form and that and this trip are concerns for me, but if the horse does return to any sort of form it could be a big danger amongst many others.
I can't ignore Course and Distance form though and at this meeting in this race last year CORAZON ESPANADO and HORTZADOR finished 1-2. CORAZON ESPANADO has an excellent course record, runs off just a pound higher than last year and with SD-S in the saddle looks cracking each way value. HORTZADOR is just a glutton for running races, its won and placed already this season in 5 runs, its off a pound lower than this race last year and drawn out wider may avoid scrimmaging on the rail and be ridden with a wet sail down the outside tactically.
IF there is one at a big price for an exchange bet (or shrapnel if you can't use Betfair) then I think HARTSWOOD could be one to follow. Its just now running in to some sort of form and off a mark that looks positive on turf and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an improved run with new stable jockey Oisin Orr in the saddle and seeking to make an immediate mark.
TIP - Corazon Esporado Nr / Tracker - Hortzador (shrapnel / exchange - Hartswood)