Ascot 3.36

THE ADVISOR - ASCOT 3.36 Handicap - Class 2 - 18 run - Good to Soft

 

The more I looked at this race the more I became fixated by the Draw, partially having watched a few races yesterday but also looking back at meetings at this time of year in the past at the Course.

 

 That led me to really focus on those drawn LOW.

 

However, heart on sleeve , looking at it from a form perspective , how do I ignore, SYMBOLIZE who ticks every box for me (dr 18), River Nymph who looks very strong (drawn 13), and FRESH; who won for us last time (drawn 16). I'm also especially keen on SILENT FILM who ran a stormer behind FRESH last time and a bit against the draw bias that day too (drawn 17).

 

Yet Drawn LOW, I really do like the chances of Oo DE LALLY who is drawn 5, goes best on softened ground, gets a tongue-tie and a somewhat forgotten horse who looks to have a very nice mark at silly odds. SHELIR is another drawn 4, won last Autumn off a mark of 96, has struggled against the handicapper since but the drop to 7 furlongs and a slight easing of the mark makes this one jump off the page at a nice price. It's never easy to write off Escobar either (drawn 6), nor Orbaan who has continued to run well since winning for us at 20/1 in JUly when we were picking big race winners like shelling peas from a pod. Then there is NEW KINGDOM, drawn in Stall 7 and wholly unexposed and improving fast.

 

The head says SYMBOLIZE, SILENT FILM and FRESH in that order. The heart and guts based on the perceived Draw bias says OO BE LALLY , SHELIR and NEW KINGDOM in that order. Is there a chance to assess Draw bias (or indeed if Pace is the key) earlier on the Card, possibly the 3.00 race may do that but by then the market may move quickly.

 

Choices to make and in this game, win, lose or draw, you have to go with the courage of your convictions.

 

(I'll have a small T/Cast perm on Symbolize, Silent Film and Fresh)