Aintree 1.45

 

A big field and the market is dominated by LANGER DAN from the Skelton yard who has had 2 disappointing runs this season having looked like a very serious horse last season. The price seems fair on that past form but too short on what we've seen this season so far and at the price it really is a choice for the individual to make about a "win saver". I'll have one just to cover my more speculative bets in a race likely to be run at a frenetic pace where anything could happen.

 

There were around 10 of the 22 that I ended up seriously considering and I would tip a nod to two in form horses in Speech Bubble with recent form of 2-1-2 and Cobblers Dream with recent form of 2-1-1-2 both in outstanding progressive form but in both cases I think this will be beyond them today and I'm happy to take them on.

 

Balco Coastal is one of a strong suit that Henderson plays here, it could frankly be anything having been pulled up when favourite in the Imperial Cup, the ground was an excuse and the fact that the horse lost a show probably greater mitigation, it's one i fear but there is another from that yard that I like more in the final analysis. Solwara One is another who hasn't yet fired this season but who ran well to finish 4th in this race last year and I have more than a hunch that it could run a similar race again today and one I fear that just missed the final selections.

 

I was left with 5 and found it very hard to differentiate so with enhanced places available will have a stake of some kind on each of them.

 

My main three are TRONADOR a Course and Distance winner of course in winning this race last year (when trained by Mrs Foster) off a mark of 128. It didn't reappear until being pulled up at Cheltenham and looks to me to have been aimed as a fresh horse at the race. I don't think a mark of 135 is unfair and it will be disappointing if its not placed at least. HIGHWAY ONE O TWO has a good each way chance on the form book and after a bit of a slump has shown major signs of running in to form the last twice and even with penalties it is below its previous ceiling. It looks like a Spring horse trained to perfection for this race.

 

Of the Henderson contingent if there is one lurking off a mark it can outrun it might be BROOMFIELD BURG its run well enough at 2 miles but was acquired from the 3 mile P2P fields and again the old brain ticks over and thinks this may be something of a plan to get the horse a run at a trip that may be far more suited to its long term ambitions.

 

There are a pair at bigger Odds that intrigue me enough to have a small investment. GERRY CLERMONT has beaten Langer Dan, if you go far enough back to a small Ludlow Novice race 4 years ago, it's not on a great handicap mark but its runs have merited it and with the yard showing its best form of the season, as is often the case in the Spring, it would be a disappointment if it doesn't beat at least half of this field home. I have similar thoughts about PADDYS MOTORBIKE whose best form off marks of 127 and 130 are on right handed tracks but not dissimilar fast turning flatish tracks like this. Its a tougher race but off 133 with a 7lbs claim its another that could beat most of them home and nick a place at big odds.