York Ebor 3.40
By DC Tips
EBOR Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 6 furlongs - Going Good to Good to Soft - 21 declared
On what is one of the best weeks of racing in the flat calendar, this class 2 handicap over 1mile 6 furlongs is the headline event. The prize-money may only be a quarter of what it was 12 months ago (due to the impact of Covid-19) but the race has still attracted a field with an average rating above 104 and, with the better quality of horse now competing in this contest, we have seen the weights more compressed in recent times than in years gone by.
DEJA is the top weight this year and this lightly-raced 5 year old finds himself on a mark of 112 now, having gone up 7lbs for his success in last month’s Old Newton Cup at Haydock. In all, there were 6 of today’s field in that race but DEJA was a very comfortable winner in his preferred soft ground. He is worth trying at this extra distance, for the first time, but is unlikely to get the underfoot conditions he excels in and, as a horse that is yet to contest any sort of group contest but still has to carry top weight, there are a number of other horses in here who appeal more from a handicap perspective.
Another horse to have taken a hike in the weights following his last run is the current favourite, at the time of writing this, FUJAIRA PRINCE. This 6 year-old has not had much racing in his career so far, and has clearly had his issues, but he does go very well fresh and has clearly been kept for this race since winning a handicap at Royal Ascot in impressive fashion. That was his first try at this trip and he has gone up by 9lbs as a result. His only previous run at this venue resulted in a close 2nd, over shorter, and, for those who like to follow the trends in these races, he ticks a lot of boxes. His excellent trainer is in fine form at present and it’s easy to see why he has been popular in the early markets for this race. He may not have finished progressing yet and has to be on the short-list.
We were lucky enough to find the winner of this race last year, with an Irish raider, and there are a couple who are coming over this year to try to take the prize back across the Irish Sea again.
The first of these is PONDUS who represents Joseph O’Brien and is the mount of Jamie Spencer who has a decent riding record in this race. Previously with James Fanshawe, this 4 year-old switched to his current stable in March and was immediately gelded. He has raced just 3 times for new connections, winning once, and was sent off as a short favourite last time out, in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, where he shaped as if this first attempt at this trip is what he needs. Bought by an Australian owner, who then sent him to O’Brien, this horse could be aimed at The Melbourne Cup.
The other Irish raider is TRUE SELF. Trained by Willie Mullins, this 7 year-old mare finished 6th in this race last year, off a mark 2lbs higher, and may well have had this race as a major target the moment she crossed the line just 3 lengths behind the winner 12 months ago. She travelled supremely well that day and led 2 furlongs out but probably hit the front sooner than ideal. I expect her to be waited with for a little longer this time around and come with just one run. She has been a real globe-trotter since that run, racing with great credit in Australia, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia and since returning to Ireland this season has contested a couple of Group races over distances shorter than ideal – a path very similar to that trodden by last year’s winner prior to lining up here. She wears a first-time tongue-tie here which could help her see out the trip that bit better.
Another horse who ran in this race last year is KINGS ADVICE. He came into that race on the back of 8 wins from just 9 races during the year but was well beaten in 18th place and has not won since. As a result, he now finds himself some 9lbs lower than 12 months ago and 5lbs below his last winning mark. Other than one decent run in a listed contest at Doncaster in June, he has not, however, showed any signs of his previous form and, whilst it can be dangerous to dismiss runners from his stable too easily, it would take a big leap of faith to back him to win this.
Mark Johnston has a second dart to throw at the board in this race and, after a somewhat predictable manouvre on Friday afternoon, that runner is now HOCHFELD. Originally only a reserve for this race, he now gets in at the foot of the weights following the withdrawal of stable and owner-mate Communique who was originally set to shoulder the second highest weight. This horse took advantage of a reduced mark last time when winning over this trip at Goodwood and has gone back up 5lbs as a result. He has never won off a mark this high but has been placed several times in decent contests off marks above this.
Being proven over the trip can often be very important as can the ability to handle the particular track being raced on. There are plenty in here who have won over this distance but only 3 have previously won at this course and, of those, only 1 has winning form over course-and-distance. That horse is GHOSTWATCH and he won The Melrose on this card in 2018. That win was in his first race after being gelded and came in the middle of what a very good 3 year-old campaign for Charlie Appleby’s charge. He missed all of last year and, apart from a good 2nd place at Newmarket last month, has not been in the same form upon his return. He has won off a mark as high as 101 but, off 106 here, he does look a touch too high in the handicap.
A trainer with a very good record in these long-distance handicaps in recent seasons is Alan King and he runs a couple in here.
The first is TRUESHAN and this 4 year-old has been a model of consistency in the last 12 months. His record in 7 races in that time is 5 wins, a 2nd place and a 4th. A couple of those wins came over the subsequent Northumberland Plate winner, Caravan Of Hope, whilst his 4th place finish on seasonal debut was franked by a subsequent victory of the winner who, then, ran well in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here on Friday. He looks to be the stable’s main hope but the yard has not really been firing in the last few weeks and has not had a winner on the flat in over 4 weeks. Drying ground may, also, not be in his favour.
The second King horse is SCARLET DRAGON who returned from a winter break to claim a big handicap at Royal Ascot, getting the better of DEJA on that occasion. He could, however, then only finish 7th in The Old Newton Cup. Hollie Doyle, who gave the horse such a good ride at Ascot, is back on board here and it is interesting to note that, on the 5 occasions she has ridden the horse, he has only finished outside the top 3 once. That one occasion, however, was in this race in 2017 and he is yet to fully prove he stays this trip on the flat.
An intriguing runner in this contest is VERDANA BLUE. This 8 year-old mare has run in some of the top hurdle races in the calendar but has only raced on the flat, on turf, twice in her career. The last of those occasions was at Royal Ascot, in June, when she was run out of it close home over 2m 4f. That trip probably stretched her stamina and this drop back in trip should suit her much more. She has a good turn of foot when the ground is good and, so, the drying conditions here should suit her. She is at her best over 2 miles over hurdles so this trip in this ground on the flat should be ideal. Ryan Moore was in the saddle at Ascot and he rides again here for connections who have won numerous big races and who will have, surely, acquired this mare over the winter with a view to targeting races such as this. Another for the short list.
If the going does dry out further that would also suit EUCHEN GLEN. There doesn’t look to be any out and out front-runner in this race but this horse is one of the more likely ones to cut out the running. He did that successfully when winning The John Smiths Cup here two years ago and tried to repeat the dose in that race this year when eventually finishing 6th. He has not been in the same form this year, after a layoff of just under 2 years following that John Smiths Cup win, and may need to come back down the handicap a few pounds more before tasting success again.
William Haggas is a trainer who does really well at York but, surprisingly, he has never won this race. He has two entered this year and the one that is currently the strongest in the betting is PABLO ESCOBARR and he has been keeping good company running mainly is stakes races. Last time out he won a Group 3 contest at Goodwood and that was one of a number of very solid performances since undergoing wind surgery last summer. This is his first try at this distance but he has shaped as though it should be no problem for him and, if staying the trip well, he could be a live danger to all.
The second Haggas’ runner is MONICA SHERIFF and she comes here after 5 straight wins at the back end of last season. She has proven herself over the distance but runs here off a career-high mark and would prefer the ground to be much softer than is likely.
Another trainer who has two runners here is Andrew Balding and both could be given a chance. RANCH HAND only has one win on turf to his name but he has been promising to run a big race for some time now. He took a while to get going in the race won by FUJAIRA PRINCE at Ascot and was then 5th in The Old Newton Cup over what is probably now an inadequate trip. Last time out he finished 4th in a Group 3 race contested over this course-and-distance but, with a small field and a slowly run race, he probably found that the race was not run to suit. Given his performance, however, and the quality of opposition, the handicapper saw fit to raise him 3lbs which does now make this task slightly harder than it would have been. His only win on turf came last September, over this trip, when he got the better of TRUESHAN. He is 10lbs better off with that rival here yet finds himself at much bigger odds in the betting due to his lack of recent success. He is horse who connections have always thought would make a useful stayer and he was sent off a heavily-backed favourite for last year’s Cesarewitch. Back in a handicap here, and with the likelihood of a stronger pace to aim at, he is very capable of filling one of the places at least.
SHAILENE is the other Balding representative and is the pick of Oisin Murphy. He has never won over this trip but did run what was probably a career-best race last time when finishing 2nd behind HOCHFELD at Goodwood. Now up 3lbs he probably needs another career-best to win here.
ALRIGHT SUNSHINE is an interesting runner here for Keith Dalgleish. This horse started off running in NH bumpers and won 3 of his 4 races in that sphere. Switched to this discipline last May, he has won 4 of his 9 starts and is very consistent. This race has been the long-term aim and the way he progressed through handicaps last season you would have to say it’s a realistic target. His two runs so far this season have seen him finish outside of the frame but the first was the re-arranged Group 3 Sagaro Stakes on the all-weather and in the second, in the race won by FUJAIRA PRINCE at Ascot, he suffered a nightmare passage. He finished just behind RANCH HAND that day but still ahead of SHAILENE and HOCHFELD. The winner was undoubtedly very impressive that day but Keith Dalgleish’s horse is 10lbs better off here and he, too, has been kept fresh for this race. His style of running does mean he will need some luck in the home straight but there is plenty of room up York’s wide track and he should, hopefully, avoid some of the issues he had to contend with at Ascot.
As the betting indicates, this is a very competitive renewal of this famous race and whittling down my short-list is not easy. FUJAIRA PRINCE was very impressive last time at Ascot and 9lbs extra on his back wouldn’t have stopped him that day but he did have the run of the race on that occasion and it is not in my nature to go for the favourite in these big big-field handicaps. If he wins then that is fair enough but, with enhanced places available, I’m after a bit more value in my selections. For the 2 main selections, I’m going to side with 2 horses running for trainers who usually lock horns in the winter game. First of all, TRUE SELF looks to have been campaigned with this race at the centre of the trainer’s plans. She ran well for a long way in this last year and, with a tongue-tie applied, the jockey will be hoping to produce her a little later this time around off a 2lb lower mark.
VERDANA BLUE has to be of interest, assuming the forecast is correct, as she will be suited by drying ground and will enjoy this trip far more than the one she ran over at Ascot. She has the required turn of foot and the galloping course should suit her well.
At bigger odds, I want to split the rest of my stake between RANCH HAND, who has been running far more encouragingly than the bare results suggest, and ALRIGHT SUNSHINE who showed plenty of ability and promise last year and would have finished closer to FUJAIRA PRINCE last time without being hampered several times. They both look over-priced in here and warrant ½ stakes ‘tracker’ bets in the hope of picking up place money at least.
TIPS - TRUE SELF + VERDANA BLUE - both 1 point each way / TRACKERS Alright Sunshine + Ranch Hand - both 1/2 point each way