York Ebor 3.35

This class 2 handicap over a trip of 1m 6f is the highlight of the whole week at York and, although much reduced from 2 years ago, the prize-pot of offer is £500K with 60% of that going to the winner. No wonder then that it is a race targeted by many and one that attracts a maximum field of 22 runners. 

The top weight, off a lofty mark of 116, is the admirable EUCHEN GLEN and, at the age of 8, he is the oldest horse in the field. He is a very smart performer who, after a long break from the track, returned to produce a fine season last year. His improvement has continued this year with him winning a group 3 and a listed contest at Sandown and he has a good record at this track. He has won 2 of his 6 starts at the course and also finished place whilst he finished 5^th in last year’s renewal of this race. He is, however, 14lbs higher in the handicap this time and, whilst he should run his usual solid race, he does face a tough task on these terms. 

Next in at the weights is last year’s winner and that is FUJAIRA PRINCE. You have to go back the best part of a century to find the last horse to win back-to-back runnings of this race, so history is against him, and he is 6lbs higher this year. That said, this lightly-raced 7 year-old has never finished out of the first 3 in all of his 11 career starts and followed last year’s win with a very good runners-up placing in the Irish St Leger before, probably, not quite seeing out the 2 mile trip when finishing 3^rd at Ascot on Champions Day. He has had just the one run this season when finishing 3^rd here last month in a Group 3 behind a horse that has since franked the form by winning again. He has clearly been aimed at this as his main target for the season and, despite the big weight, will surely be in the mix. One for the shortlist. 

William Haggas is a trainer who does really well at York but, surprisingly, he has never won this race. He is clearly determined to set that record straight and has 4 horses entered here. The most intriguing is probably HAMISH who comes here on the back of a 428 day break. He won The Melrose on this card in 2019, from a mark of 92, before following up from 6lbs higher back over course-and-distance a couple of months later so he clearly thrives at this track. He was beaten just a neck by the now 118-rated Group 1 winner Trueshan at Newbury at the end of 2019 before finishing 4^th at Royal Ascot last year. On the back of that he was made ante-post favourite for this race 12 months ago but failed to keep the engagement, due to injury, and, instead rocks up this year on the back of a lengthy absence. His trainer is in excellent form and is sure to have him well primed for this whilst the fact that Tom Marquand takes the ride suggests that he may be the main hope for the stable. 

Rated 3lbs higher than his stable-mate is ILARAAB and this 4 year-old saw his 5-race winning streak come to an end when well beaten in The Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Like HAMISH he is a perfect 2/2 at this track but he is yet to try this trip and missed an intended engagement here last month due to the ground. If there is no significant rain before the race, he may find conditions against him once more. 

The other two Haggas’ entries have very similar names so punters need to be careful when striking their bets. PABLO ESCOBARR finished 11^th in last year’s race, when trying this trip for the first time, and he is a horse who has been keeping good company running mainly in Stakes races. He is 4lbs lower than last year and has the services of a 5lb claimer to help further. 

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has only run 6 times but has already won twice at this venue, including in a listed race over course-and-distance in June, and finished 4^th just behind FUJAIRA PRINCE here last month. He is 7lbs better off here, having only finished ½ length behind that rival on that occasion. He is one who probably won’t want any rain to arrive. 

Irish raiders have a good record in this race in recent years and there are 4 horses making the trip over this time. Willie Mullins had a number of entries at the 5-day stage but is left to rely on just MT LEINSTER at the final declarations. This 7 year-old is lightly raced on the flat but has won 3 of his 4 starts in this discipline and finished 2^nd on the other occasion. He was last seen winning the Amateur Riders Derby at The Curragh last October and has been set aside for this ever since. The break should not be seen as too negative as he won first time up last season and, of course, his trainer is an absolute genius at getting one ready for a big target. On the basis of the form of his win at Listowel last September, where he beat both Arcadian Sunrise (who won well here earlier in the week) and Cape Gentleman, giving away weight, he could be well-handicapped off a mark of 102 and this is his handicap debut on the flat. The one concern for me would be the ground as he is yet to win, in any discipline, on ground better than soft and he is likely to want rain. 

Johnny Murtagh has two entries and the first of them, SONNYBOYLISTON, had a bit of a sighter over this course-and-distance when finishing 6^th last month after racing freely. Prior to that he had won a listed race at Limerick over 1m 4f but the form of that race does not look too great and he is yet to convince over this longer trip. 

Murtagh’s other entry is MIRANN. He hasn’t won since his triumph on stable debut last June but did finish 4^th at Royal Ascot, behind QUICKTHORN, and he is 5lbs better off here. His form is solid, rather than spectacular, but he has been racing mainly at shorter distances and is pretty much unproven over this trip. 

The ‘dark horse’ of the Irish raiders is probably SHANROE. He has won 3 of his 5 starts on the flat and 2 of those wins came over this distance. The last of those came in June at The Curragh and he is up 7lbs for that which means that he sneaks in here right at the foot of the weights. He looks versatile in terms of ground and is certainly an each-way player. 

Another horse in here reappearing after a long lay-off is HUMANITARIAN. He was actually a horse I had an ante-post wager on for the 2019 St.Leger as he always shaped as if this trip would suit really well but, in the end, he did not get a final entry (due to injury) and in the end spent 455 days off the track before winning on return last September at Newbury. The trainer has a good record with horses who have spent a long time off the track and, as the win at Newbury shows, the long lay-off should not be a big issue. He finished 7^th in the 2019 Derby and the horse he beat, conceding 1lb, at Newbury is now rated 112 so he may be on a decent mark here. He should like the ground if the rain stays away and jockey James Doyle won on his only ride aboard him. 

The original favourite for this race was Godolphin’s Live Your Dream but, as first reserve, he has failed to make the final cut. The horse who finished 2^nd to him last time at Newmarket does, however, line up and is also owned by Godolphin. That horse is the 4 year-old GLOBAL STORM and trainer Charlie Appleby has an excellent 25% strike-rate at York. The horse is extremely consistent and looks to have improved since stepping up in trip this season. In addition to his 2^nd place at Newmarket, he finished 3^rd at Royal Ascot, over this trip, and won a decent contest at Newmarket in May on soft ground. He is versatile with regards to underfoot conditions so any significant rain that does hit the track should not inconvenience him. The owners will have had the opportunity to pull him out of the race, to allow the favourite to run, you would have assumed, but the fact that they have kept him suggests that he is not without a chance. He is another for the each-way short-list. 

A horse that will definitely want the rain to arrive in some quantity is TRIBAL CRAFT and she lines up here for the in-form Andrew Balding stable. She has been kept to soft ground for all runs so far this season and, having won a Group 3 here in May, finished 2^nd behind Wonderful Tonight last time in a Group 2 at Goodwood. She stayed on well there but has gone up 4lbs as a result. These are obvious calmer waters in terms of class but winning still requires a career best. 

Another who ran well in defeat at Goodwood was AWAY HE GOES. The 5 year-old was a very creditable 2^ndbehind Trueshan in The Goodwood Cup. That was also run on soft ground but the horse does go well on a sounder surface with 2 of his 3 career wins coming on good-to-firm going. He is 2lbs ‘well-in’ following the Goodwood run but does need to improve on his run here last month when finishing 5^th. He may be better over 2 miles now, having also finished 3^rd behind Subjectivist in Meydan in March, but he cannot be underestimated. 

Andrew Balding has a second representative in this in the shape of ALOUNAK who won The Old Newton Cup at Haydock early last month. He ran well, again, last time when finishing 4^th at Goodwood but, whilst he will be happier back in handicap company, he is another who will want plenty of rain to fall. 

Another who will relish any rain and subsequent softening of the ground is ON TO VICTORY. Alan King’s dual purpose performer won The November Handicap at Doncaster last season and comes here after a creditable run at Goodwood last month. Having had a couple of entries originally, Alan King is happy to rely solely on this 7 year-old and Saffie Osborne takes off a useful 5lbs. 

A horse who made his seasonal bow at Goodwood last month is EAGLES BY DAY. Previously with Michael Bell, this horse won over this course-and-distance on debut for David O’Meara last July when taking the Group 3 Silver Cup. He has been kept to group contests since his stable move and has largely raced over 2 miles against some very good opposition. His last race was only after 1m 4f and that does look like a bit of a prep race with this race being the main seasonal target. His trainer is a master of plotting horses up for big races and, providing the ground does not become too soft, he could run a big race at decent odds. 

David O’Meara also runs MAKAWEE here and she has largely struggled this season in group and listed contests. She does have a solid record at this course however and this is her first run in a handicap in a while but it will be a surprise if she wins on these terms. 

As you would expect for such a valuable handicap, this is very competitive and, as on many other occasions this summer, the biggest uncertainty would seem to be the weather forecast. There is rain forecast but the exact timing and the actual amount varies depending on which forecast you view. Without rain, there are many you could probably put a line through but, with it, the race becomes even more competitive. 

There does not look to be a lot of obvious pace here and the only confirmed out and out front-runner I can see is MT LEINSTER. He is one of those who will welcome rain and Jason Watson may just be able to dictate the pace as he likes. The horse does have a long lay-off to overcome but the trainer knows how to ready one and they will have deliberately skipped Galway last month to target this big prize. He could be one of the better handicapped horses in the race and it would be no surprise to see this one take the prize back to Ireland once more. 

Last year’s winner, FUJAIRA PRINCE, is another clearly aimed directly at this and his consistency merits full respect here. He is 6lbs higher and has to shoulder a big weight but, although he has run well on good ground, he is another who will welcome the likely easing of conditions if the rain arrives. He looks a solid option for one of the enhanced places on offer. 

GLOBAL STORM looks to have been improving with each run this year and that has coincided with the step up to this trip. A repeat of his run last time out, just behind Live Your Dream, would see him go very close here and he will not be hindered too much either way by rain or lack of it. His trainer and jockey continue in great form and he is a decent value each-way bet. 

I was very tempted to put up HUMANITARIAN as a fourth pick in this competitive race but any rain that falls will be a negative so, at the prices, I can’t resist a small play instead on SHANROE. Irish runners in handicaps in the UK are always to be respected and this horse looks to have been improving this season and has done very little wrong. He is the lowest profile of the Irish horses and won the trial race in June well. He has gone well fresh in the past so the 80 day break since then should, hopefully, be ideal for him. 

TIP: MT LEINSTER.  Trackers: Fujaira Prince / Global Storm / Shanroe