Saturday 29th September
By DC Tips
3.40 (CAMBRIDGESHIRE): ALFARRIS (11/1) / MORDIN (25/1) -1/2pt e/w
VIA SERENDIPIDITY (28/1) / STYLEHUNTER (14/1) – 1/4pt e/w
Skybet and Bet365 paying 8 places, William Hill/Paddy Power paying 7 places
A maximum field of 35 runners are declared for the first leg of the ‘Autumn Double’ at Newmarket and, as one would expect, with such a big field to pick through, it’s not been easy to whittle the contenders down to a manageable few to focus on. It does look a wide open renewal and some may even think it foolish to even try to find a winner here but there are, at least, some nice each-way prices available and that means the rewards are greater if we can be successful in our quest.
It is a race that is run over the rather unusual distance of 1mile 1 furlong so we probably need a horse that has a combination of the tactical speed needed for 1 mile but enough stamina for beyond and winning form over 10 furlongs has been a consistent attribute of winners in the last decade or so.
The race is often won by a progressive horse, who is still, in all probability, climbing up the handicap ratings and some have gone on to taste Group success subsequently. Are there any future Group-class horses in this line-up?
The first place to look for such types would, logically, be amongst the 3 year-olds entered in the race. The Classic generation have had a decent record in the race in the past, although this has not been so true in the more recent years, and there are 5 in here from that age group this time.
They all, of course, get an allowance, which helps, but I’m not convinced that any of them look that well treated in terms of the handicap. 2 of them hail from the John Gosden yard and, in my opinion, there is no better trainer around at present so they will have to be respected. WISSAHICKON has proved popular in the betting this week, which is no surprise as he is the choice of Frankie Dettori, and the trainer did hint that this could be the aim for him when speaking about him earlier in the season. Much of his form, thus far, has been on the all-weather but he did show a good attitude to land a handicap over 1m 2f at York in June. He could be the Group performer ‘lurking’ in the handicap but he has not experienced the hustle-bustle of a big field handicap yet and he has a big weight to carry. I think his price is short enough now to risk finding out if he is up to carrying it successfully. The plan will be to ride him ‘cold’ and come as late as possible so he will, also, need some luck in running.
STYLEHUNTER is the 2ndof the Gosden 3 year-olds and, although bigger in the betting, I think he has the better chance. He has already performed with credit in a big field this season when finishing 6thin The Britannia at Royal Ascot and he followed that up with a comfortable win, in a small field, last time at Goodwood over this 9 furlong trip. He was taken out of a race last week, at Newbury, on account of the soft ground so the forecast fast conditions look to be in his favour. He, also, carries less weight than the other 3 year-olds.
Fellow 3 year-olds, KENYA and DANCETERIA, are also prominent in the betting. The former is the only Irish-trained horse in the field and is looking for a Cambridgeshire double having won the Irish equivalent earlier this month whilst the latter ran up a 4-timer earlier this season before, maybe, being given too much to do last time in Ireland. KENYA may well be one of those looking to force the pace, and all runners from his powerhouse stable have to be respected (especially as the trainer has very few runners in these big handicaps in the UK), but he has looked as though he does not want to go much further than a mile so he may find this trip stretching his stamina. Whilst the trip should pose no problem to DANCETERIA, he has gone up 26lbs since he started his winning run and may find winning this off his current mark a tough ask.
Aside from the 3 year-olds, there are a few older horses in here who still look fairly unexposed and could still have plenty of improvement to come. One of those is ALFARRIS for William Haggas. He is yet to finish outside the top 5 in any of his races so far in an 11 race career and when wearing cheekpieces he has won 3 and finished 2nd in 5 starts. He was, of course, a nice winner for this service at The Goodwood Festival and, then, last time out he finished 2nd behind the re-opposing PIVOINE at York. He was, possibly, beaten a little by the draw that day as he was drawn very wide and had to be settled in at the back of the field. That allowed the eventual winner to get first run on him and, although, travelling smoothly through the field he just couldn’t get to the winner and tired a little in the last 100 yards or so. He is 8lbs better off with the winner this time and, with a good turn of foot allied with a proven ability to stay, he looks the ideal type to give his excellent trainer a first win in this race.
Another 4 year-old, who is lightly-raced and, who could still be capable of competing off a higher mark is MORDIN. He has finished in the first 2 in 7 of his 8 races so far with the only exception coming at York, in The John Smiths Cup, when he was not really suited by the slow pace and pulled a little too hard. He was given a break after that race but returned with credit 2 weeks ago, at Sandown, when finishing 2nd, and that race will, hopefully put him spot on for this. The stronger the pace the better for this horse and he should, hopefully, get this here. The stable has been in excellent form over the past fortnight and the trainer is enjoying his best ever season. They put on the cheekpieces for the first time here and that is a tactic that has been employed successfully by the trainer in the past. The price of the horse has been contracting during Friday (was available at 40/1 earlier in the day) but it still looks a good value each-way play.
There are a few horses in this that have competed in the race before. One is a former winner in the shape of THIRD TIME LUCKY who was victorious in 2015. He also ran in the race a year later, when finishing 4th, and finished 3rd over course-and-distance in May this year. He clearly, therefore, enjoys this unique test and could well be in the mix again here. The one doubt in my mind, however, is the ground. He has won on good-to-firm going in the past but is much happiest when he can get his toe in.
Another horse who has run in this race before is VERY TALENTED. He finished 3rd in this 2 years ago and, having backed him on that occasion, I well remember that he was undone by being drawn on the wrong side of the track. He, then, missed almost 2 years before returning at Chelmsford just over a week ago. He gets in here with just a 4lb penalty which means he is 2lbs well in. He is yet to win beyond a mile but that run in 2016 seemed to show there are no issues with this distance. The main concern, obviously, is the quick turn-around after a long lay-off and, whilst I may live to regret it, that’s the reason why I leave him out of my final picks.
Another horse yet to win beyond a mile is VIA SERENDIPIDITY. He has been ultra-consistent all season, running in several big-field handicaps and, never finishing worse than 5th. In a race with as many as 8 places up for grabs that is the sort of horse you want on your side when looking for an each-way angle into a race. In the races he has won over a mile, he has always looked at his strongest at the finish so I’m hopeful the extra furlong will not be a problem and his breeding on the dam side suggests that he should be ok. He is a dual winner at the track, so the drop into the dip should not be an issue, and is better on a sound surface. The booking of Gerald Mosse also catches my eye.
Given the competitive nature of the race, the fact that there are 35 runners and the offer of 8 places with a couple of bookies, I have decided to go with 4 picks in the race but with a total stake of just 3 points. My suggestion is to stake ½ point each-way on ALFARRIS and MORDIN and to split the other point by having ¼ point each-way on both STYLEHUNTER and VIA SERENDIPIDITY.