Royal Hunt Cup - Ascot 5.00

This race up the straight mile is always a real cavalry charge and is one of the most difficult handicap puzzles to solve in the whole flat season. This year’s renewal sees 30 entered and, as ever, it is fiercely competitive. 

The runners will be spread out across the track and where the pace unfolds is likely to be the key to the final outcome but the draw has also been a factor in recent years with those drawn middle to high largely holding sway.  

The market is headed by FINEST SOUND and he was 2^nd in last year’s Brittania at this meeting when sent off favourite. That would indicate that the track holds no fears but he does come here off 12lbs higher following two good runs earlier this season. He has finished out of the frame just once in his career so far and comes here with solid claims. 

The one race where FINEST SOUND finished down the field came last August at York and that particular contest was won by BRUNCH. Michael Dods 4 year-old is 8lbs worse off here but did finish over 9 lengths in front and is a horse who continues to progress. He ran a fine race in The Lincoln in March, when a selection of this service, finishing 2^nd and then filled the same spot last month at York when he rather missed the start and had to, maybe, use up too much petrol to make headway. He was well beaten in two listed events on his last two starts last season but they were run in soft and heavy ground, and his good form has all come on a sound surface which he should get here. His only run on good to firm ground produced a win and his overall profile is a positive one and, with what looks a favourable draw in stall 25, he is definitely one for the short-list. His trainer is a very shrewd operator and, whilst he is selective with what he sends here, he has a 28% strike-rate at the track in the last 5 years. 

When BRUNCH finished 2^nd in The Lincoln he was beaten by HAQEEQY who was very impressive on the day and runs here as one of two entries for John and Thady Gosden. He has gone up 7lbs for that win and was also assisted by a 7lb claimer then so is, effectively, now 14lbs higher. He came 4^th off this mark over course-and-distance in April which, on the face of it, was disappointing given he was sent off a very warm favourite. He is a horse, however, who likes to be covered up and produced late and he got caught out on the wing of the field, seeing too much daylight, last time so this bigger field is a scenario that should suit better. 

There are quite a few horses who contested The Lincoln running here and one of them is GROVE FERRY who, subsequently, won at Chester’s May Festival. He is up 4lbs here but the form of that race on The Roodee is working out very well. The 2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th, 6^th and 10^th horses home have all won since and GROVE FERRY did not have the easiest passages so his performance could, perhaps, be marked up. He has what looks like a good high draw here and the stiffer track should hold no fears given he has been placed here twice. 

Andrew Balding has a second runner here in the shape of top weight BELL ROCK and he finished 6^th in this race last year. He started this season with an impressive win at Newmarket before being held in 3^rd last time at Epsom off this mark. To try to alleviate the weight burden, claimer William Carver takes the ride and he is a perfect 1/1 on the horse having been in the saddle for his seasonal debut win. 

The Irish don’t send many over for this race but they have won the contest twice in the last five years from just seven entrants. There are three in here this year and the one that catches my eye is LAFAYETTE who represents Noel Meade. The trainer is, of course, better known for his exploits with NH horses and has had just the one winner on the flat in the UK but he has had six winners already this season in Ireland. One of those wins did come courtesy of this 4 year-old when he won the Irish Lincoln in March. That win came in very soft ground, and most of his form is on such a surface, but he did win on fast ground in his juvenile season. He was gelded prior to his Lincoln win and the horse he beat into 2^nd that day has since won a Group 3, and is now rated 107, so his mark of 96 here could be lenient and he is 2lbs well in. He could only manage a 4^th place finish last time out but was done no favours by the draw that day and found himself short of racing room late on. He has form over further, so the stiff track will suit, and the Irish Champion Jockey, Colin Keane, rides for the first time since winning on him in that juvenile win on fast ground. 

Vying for favouritism with FINEST SOUND at the time of writing is MAGICAL MORNING and he is the other entry for John and Thady Gosden and the mount of Frankie Dettori. He has not raced since last September, and has been gelded since, so fitness will have to be taken on trust, but he did win on seasonal debut last June. He has only raced 6 times in his career so is still relatively unexposed and his handicap mark may, therefore, still underestimate him. In addition, he is 5lbs better off at the weights with MATTHEW FLINDERS, behind whom he finished 2^nd on his last start, and has won both of his starts on quick ground. 

The aforementioned MATTHEW FLINDERS is quietly fancied by a few judges in this and he is another with form over further. He ran a good race when finishing 3^rd in The Spring Cup at Newbury first time out this season but then disappointed at York when racing freely in the same race that BRUNCH finished 2^nd in. He is worse off with MAGICAL MORNING and, also, should not finish ahead of BRUNCH based on that last run. 

ASTRO KING attracted some market support on Tuesday and he is another who is lightly raced. He was a selection for us last time out at Thirsk but was not given the best of rides, in my opinion, and finished 3^rd, finishing strongly after being given too much to do. He is another with form over further and a strongly run mile over this course could be the ideal trip for him. He beat FINEST SOUND first time out at Nottingham this season but is 4lbs worse off here and only won by a short-head. Ryan Moore rides for the first time since partnering the horse to victory on his racecourse debut and, whilst this isn’t a race that Michael Stoute necessarily target, the trainer does have a good record with horses aged 4 plus. He is another drawn high and is another for the short-list. 

The likely pace-setter could be MAYDANNY, drawn in stall 24, and this 5 year-old is very lightly-raced for a Mark Jonston horse with only nine starts to his name. He has won a couple of those with the last one coming last summer with an all-the-way success at Goodwood over 1m 2f. He has been campaigned largely at longer trips than this but his other win did come over a mile on firm ground at Yarmouth last June. He ran in last year’s Silver Hunt Cup but was clearly drawn on the wrong side of the track and, although finishing first in the group that ran on the far side, he could only finish 7^th overall. He is 11lbs higher here and finished 2^ndon his comeback run last month behind BELL ROCK at Newmarket. He should strip fitter for that run and is 6lbs better off here with the winner as he looks to provide a repeat win for last year’s winning yard. He could run well from the front, on ground he likes, but it is interesting that Jim Crowley has chosen HAQEEQY over him. 

Whilst the race entries are largely dominated by 4 and 5 year-olds, there are a couple of older horses in here who could run big races at decent odds and both have form over this track. 

The first of these is ESCOBAR and I made a note of him being a potential for this race when he was a fast-finishing 3^rd in The Victoria Cup over 7f here last month. That was one of several good performances in handicaps over this Ascot straight from the horse as in 8 handicaps here he was won once and been placed on a further four occasions. His consistency means that he remains on a stiff-looking mark of 106 but his last win, in October 2019, came over this course-and-distance when he beat the now 123-rated Lord North in The Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day. He is a horse who is held up, so will need some luck in the way of gaps opening at the right time, but he could be picking a few off near the end and sneak into one of the enhanced places. 

CLIFFS OF CAPRI is another 7 year-old with some good form at Ascot. He has won two of his seven starts here and has never finished worse than 5^th in those runs. He has plenty of experience in big-field handicaps and ran well, also, in The Golden Mile at The Goodwood Festival last summer off the same mark as he runs from here. His trainer, Jamie Osborne, has a decent record in this race with his last ten runners producing one winner, three places and two others who finished 6^th and 7^th. He clearly likes to target the race and he trained the last 7 year-old to win the race back in 2014. 

BEAT LE BON is a horse who is now looking well-handicapped again for one of his ability. He won The Golden Mile two years ago but, having stepped up from handicaps, failed to win since. He is now back to a mark 1lb lower than for that Goodwood win and his time could be near judged by his last run at Doncaster. I do fear, however, that the draw may have gone against him again as he is drawn in the lowest stall on the far side. 

This is wide open and it is possible to make a case for a large number of runners but the evidence of the first day, together with other races run recently on this straight track, would indicate that you may need to be drawn middle-to-high here. There does not look to be a lot of pace but what there is, with MAYDANNY in particular, does look to be mainly in the higher numbered stalls. 

For the main tip, I am going to go with BRUNCH. He still seems to be improving, runs well on a sound surface and looks to be drawn in the right area of the track. There are small excuses for his two defeats this season but those 2^nd place finishes could prove to be a blessing here in terms of handicap mark and he looks set to run well for a very shrewd trainer with a good record here.

Talk of shrewd trainers brings me onto the second selection and that is Irish raider LAFAYETTE. He has looked an improver since being gelded, fitted with cheekpieces and dropping back in trip. His ability to stay further could be important here on this stiff track, especially if it does turn out to be a strongly-run affair, and, being 2lbs ‘well in’, could be nicely handicapped. 

HAQEEQY could bounce back from his last run here, and ASTRO KING is another who could put a disappointing last-time out performance behind him, but I just prefer the claims of GROVE FERRY. The form of his win at Chester is working out very well and he was better value for his win so a 4lb rise could be lenient. 

With the enhanced places, I want to have a 4^th dart on one of the ‘darker’ horses in the race and it is a toss-up between ESCOBAR and CLIFFS OF CAPRI. In the end, I have just come down on the side of Jamie Osborne’s horse as he is less reliant on there being a real end-to-end gallop than David O’Meara’s charge. He is also, at the time of writing, available at 100/1 at ¼ odds with Bet365 (although for only 5 places admittedly). His consistency makes an interesting each-way option at a big price.

TIP: BRUNCH    Trackers: Lafayette, Grove Ferry, Cliffs Of Capri