Newmarket 3.35 - Cambridgeshire
By DC Tips
CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Newmarket 3.35 - 1 mile 1 Furlong (Rowley Mile) - 29 run - Going Good (constant light rain forecast)
The Cambridgeshire is the feature of this week’s meeting at Newmarket and is a race that is run over the rather unusual distance of 1mile 1 furlong. To win it you need a horse that has a combination of the tactical speed required for 1 mile but enough stamina for 10 furlongs and a good proportion of the winners this century had previously won over that trip. Unusually this year, there is not a maximum field, and with Wild Hero running here on Friday there is likely to be another one less, but we still have 28 runners to assess so the puzzle remains as tricky as ever.
The race is often won by a progressive horse, who is still, in all probability, climbing up the handicap ratings and some have gone on to taste Group success subsequently. The last two winners of the contest are a case in point and both had three things in common. Firstly, they were both trained by John Gosden and, second, they were ridden by Frankie Dettori. The final factor in common is that they were both 3 year-olds.
Last year’s winner, Lord North, who was a selection for this service and well-backed on the day, was, in fact the fourth 3year-old winner of the race for John Gosden and his fifth overall and this time he looks for another win with AL RUFAA. Again, he is a 3 year-old and, until his last run at Haydock, had looked very progressive. His profile is not dissimilar to Gosden’s last two winners of the race and each of those had a ‘blip’ during their route to this race. He is yet to race over further than 7 furlongs but has, generally, been seeing his races out well in the final stages so the step up in trip does not look unrealistic. As a 3 year-old, he gets the 5lb weight allowance, which helps, but does not look as though he would want the ground to get too soft if the forecast rain gets into the ground. Given connections, it will be no surprise to see this one get backed.
In all, there are seven 3 year-olds declared this year and another who looks highly progressive is ILARAAB. He only made his racecourse debut in June, when finishing down the field at this track, but has now won his last 4 races, including a good win against a strong-looking field last Saturday at Newbury over 1m 2f. He runs here with a 4lb penalty which means he is 1lb ‘well-in’ compared to his revised mark and, on a line through the second home at Newbury, he should finish ahead of AL RUFAA at these weights. He has some experience of big fields, having won a 14-runner event at Thirsk, whilst he also gets the services of the excellent Cieren Fallon.
ILARAAB is one of a strong hand in here for trainer William Haggas who continues in good form. Main stable jockey, Tom Marquand, takes the ride on SINJAARI whose only run so far this season saw him with The John Smiths Cup at York, when a selection for this service, back in July. This son of Camelot ran in some strong handicaps as a 3 year-old, last year, and performed well in most of them. He seems to run well after a break, as demonstrated by his win on seasonal debut at York, and will have been kept fresh for this since then. This a step back in trip for him, so he will want a strongly run race, whilst he would probably not want the ground to get too soft. He is up 8lbs for his York win but his John Smiths Cup win demonstrates that he handles the hurly-burly of big-field handicaps whilst, as we said last week with our successful Ayr Gold Cup pick, the trainer is not one to tilt at unrealistic targets for his horses so he has to be respected.
The third Haggas horse is MONTATHAM and he is ridden by Jim Crowley who, of course, is having an excellent season. The horse has been the model of consistency in his career so far and has never finished out of the frame in his 10 starts on turf, winning half of them. He was gelded over the winter and has run well in a series of handicaps this season before finishing 2nd in a listed contest last time out at Sandown. All of those runs have been at a mile but he should be ok with the extended trip here. His first outing this season saw him win at this track so there are no issues with him handling the dip and whilst he has climbed the ratings he is another who is running from 1lb below his new official handicap mark. He can be a bit keen early on his races so a big field and a strong gallop may help him here and, arguably, his best two performances this season came in big field handicaps of this nature when finishing 2nd in The Hunt Cup at Ascot and, then, claiming victory at York last month. He is drawn rather low, however, with very little pace around him so Jim Crowley will have to be a little clever in getting him into the ideal spot from where to challenge.
The one horse drawn in the lower part of the draw that does like to force the pace early is KING CARNEY. This 3 year old was considered good enough to be a Derby contender at the start of the season but, after disappointing in both the Lingfield Derby Trial and at Royal Ascot, that plan was shelved and he was gelded. He returned to the track last month when making is handicap debut at Newbury and finished 3rd behind today’s race favourite, TEMPUS, beaten just under a length. The winner was badly hampered that day, and got the race in the stewards room, so the winning distance may well have been more, but KING CARNEY also suffered some slight interference and was coming back at the two in front at the line. He was conceding 2lbs to TEMPUS that day but is 4lbs better off here and, having won twice already on soft, will not mind if the heavens really do open. William Buick takes the ride and very few jockeys ride The Rowley Mile as well as he does.
The aforementioned TEMPUS has been all the rage for this race for a couple of weeks now and now sits as the current favourite. He is a very lightly raced 4 year-old who has won both starts this term and is 3lbs ‘well-in’ under his penalty. He could easily be capable of competing well above this level and may go on to do so. At the prices, however, there have to be enough doubts to take him on and try to find some better each-way value. He is drawn in and amongst the likely early pace but he is unproven on the track and over this far plus is, also, unproven in a field as large and competitive as this. He may well bolt in, and I’ll have to take it on the chin, but in a 28-runner handicap of this nature I’d rather take my chances elsewhere at the prices.
Last time, at Ascot, TEMPUS beat WALHAAN and that rival meets him here on 4lbs better terms. He has been rather inconsistent since joining Ian Williams at the start of this year but he is more than 3 times the price of his rival having been beaten less than 2 lengths. Anybody liking the chances of the favourite has to consider WALHAAN as a live each-way pick on that basis. Not sure I can really see him turning the tables with his conqueror, however, despite the pull in the weights.
A horse who should be fine in the hurly-burly of this test, and who would not mind any easing of the ground, is SIR BUSKER. With the exception on one run at the Goodwood Festival, this horse has been running admirably this season, winning twice and finishing runner-up on a further 3 occasions. One of his runner-up spots came at York behind MONTATHAM, beaten just a neck, and he is 1lb better off with that rival here. This is his first try at this trip but the way he has been finishing his races suggests that it should not be beyond him. A greater inconvenience could be his draw and, more likely his handicap mark and the prospect of there being better treated rivals in here. He is certainly one of the main contenders for a place however.
There are no fewer than 6 horses who ran in last year’s race who return here for another cracker at the big handicap. Of those, the one who fared best 12 months ago is GOOD BIRTHDAY. He finished 3rd off an 8lb hgher mark than he races from here and, subsequent events have shown that, he was beaten by two very well-treated rivals that day. He has not been in great form this season, and his last win came last August, but he is now 5lbs below that last winning mark and may have had a repeat crack at this race as his main target for the season. The owners’ retained jockey, however, is riding at Chelmsford instead of coming here so that may be seen as a negative with regards to his chances.
MAJESTIC DAWN attempted to make all from up the stands rail last year and ran a very good race to finish 5th in the end off a 5lbs lower mark. Blinkers are applied for the first time here and he again finds hmself drawn high so he may try to dictate once more up the near-side rail. He clearly handles this track, having also been placed here in November, and any softening of the ground will be in his favour. He only returned to the track recently after a long lay-off and, if that return run has blown away the cobwebs, it would not be a surprise to see him claim some each-way money at a big price.
Back in 8th last year was FIFTH POSITION and he runs here off 4lbs higher. He has been running well all this season, notably when 3rd in The John Smiths Cup, and still looks feasibly handicapped. I’m not convinced, however, that this step back in trip is what he wants.
FIFTH POSITION has won just the one race this season and that came at Doncaster where he finished ahead of ANYTHINGTODAY, in 2nd, and DEREVO, back in 3rd.
That race was over 1m 2f and ANYTHINGTODAY finished just a length behind and finds himself 7lbs better off at the weights today. Previously with David O’Meara, this horse has been running mostly over 1m 2f and 1m 4f in his career to date but, as was the case in the Doncaster, race he has often been headed late on having hit the front a furlong out. If ridden a touch more patiently here, this drop back in trip could be ideal and he does look reasonably well-handicapped for a yard that know the time of day. He has been very strong in the market during Friday and, having been 40/1 with one firm during the afternoon and 33/1 being widely available, his price has more than halved.
DEREVO, who was 3rd in the Doncaster race, is another who saw solid support during Friday and he is 6lbs better off with the winner from that day. Following a good 3 year-old campaign, Michael Stoute’s charge looked sure to win handicaps this season but, so far, nothing seems to have gone right for him. Following the Doncaster run, he found himself trapped out wide for much of the race at Goodwood before racing on unsuitably soft ground at York. Last time out, back at Doncaster, he looked set to win before being mowed down late on by a well-handicapped horse over 1m 2f. If anything, he was probably going too well there and hit the front a bit too soon so a strongly-run contest over a furlong shorter may be ideal. It’s not a race Stoute has won before, which is rather surprising, and, whilst he could prove that this mark is very lenient, a couple of niggles for me are the fact that he has not proven himself over the trip and any potential softening of the ground. He is on the short-list however.
Course form, here on The Rowley Mile, can be important as some horses can become unbalanced as the race into the dip in the final quarter of this race. BELL ROCK is a horse who has proven that he handles this track as he has a perfect 2/2 record here. He won on racecourse debut, as a 2 year-old, and then repeated the does on seasonal debut this year. That was his first race since being gelded last year and his first step into handicap class having kept higher company last year. He ran creditably enough, finishing 6th, in The Hunt Cup at Ascot before, possibly, not finding the track to his liking last time at Goodwood when finishing 3rd. He did, however, finish ahead of both DEREVO and FIFTH POSITION in that contest. He is 1lb worse off with the former here and meets the latter on the same terms. The return to this course is an obvious plus and, drawn high, he looks to be near the probable early pace. With both of his wins here coming when fresh, the fact that he has not raced for two months is probably not the negative some would see it as being and he looks to have been laid out for this. His high mark and the prospect of others lurking in here off more ‘generous’ ratings are, however, a small worry for me.
Also drawn high here are two other horses with form over this track. Indeed, both are actually course-and-distance winners. DATA PROTECTION won The Silver Cambridgeshire at this meeting last year but he is now 13lbs higher and this is a lot deeper than that contest was. He is having a good season and has won twice already but he has very little form in this kind of big field handicap.
BALGAIR won the Amateur Cambridgeshire at this track just last week and, whilst that was only a class 4 event, his winning time was a very good one. He was, seemingly, suited by the strong pace there and should get that again here but the main worry would be the ground as all of his good form has come on a sound surface.
Drawn highest of all is DUBAI MIRAGE. He is another 3 year-old who could still be progressing. After disappointing in The Britannia at Royal Ascot, he was gelded and duly bolted up next time out at Haydock in August. He was clearly suited by the fact that the leaders went off too fast that day and he took advantage as the pace collapsed late on. Next time out, at Sandown, the converse was true and the crawl that they raced at really did not suit him. The upshot was that the race developed into a sprint late on and though he ran well he could only finish 3rd. I believe it was the way the race was run that did for him that day rather than the extra 10lbs the handicapper had given him after Haydock. He should get a strong pace, again ,here and his trainer, who is in good form, puts up a 5lb claimer to offset some of that rise from Haydock. He looks a live contender with the enhanced places on offer at decent odds.
Another 3 year old whose current odds might under-estimate his chances is LUCANDER who runs here for Ralph Beckett. He beat 3 of today’s opponents last time, in soft ground, at York when winning a big-field handicap over 1m 2f. He also has winning form over a mile, and this sort of race could be to his liking, but is yet to race at this track.
The market is dominated by horses who are perceived to be progressive and it would be no surprise to see any of them triumph here. Earlier in the week, I was quite keen on DEREVO as he looks well-handicapped and could find this trip ideal but much of the early value which was in his price has disappeared and, so, I am going to look elsewhere for some each-way value with the raft of enhanced places on offer.
Of those towards the top-end of the market, BELL ROCK looks to be the best value. He looks to have been trained with this in mind and, although he will have to defy a career-high mark, he is still lightly raced and his experience of big fields and an ability to handle this track are in his favour. He also looks to be drawn near to the likely pace.
The pace angle could also be key to the chances of DUBAI MIRAGE and, at bigger odds, he could spring a minor surprise. He is a bit quirky and can hang to his left but, given his draw, that should not be too much of an issue as he will have the stands-side rail to run against.
For a couple of ‘tracker’ selections, I am going to go with ANYTHINGTODAY as, despite a lot of the early value disappearing, there is still some each-way mileage in his price and he looks to have been crying out for this drop in trip. He is drawn in the middle but could get a decent pull into the race with ZHUI FENG and KING CARNEY not drawn far away.
I came close to picking KING CARNEY also as a ‘tracker’, as I did MAJESTIC DAWN, but, to cover all possibilities with the draw, I have decided to play one drawn low in the shape of MONTATHAM. He is ultra-consistent and will relish any cut in the ground plus has run some very good races in big fields.
TIPS - Bell Rock + Dubai Mirage / TRACKERS - Anythingtoday + Montatham