Newcastle 3.35
By DC Tips
David - Elite - Newcastle 3.35 - Northumberland Plate - 19 run - 2 miles 56 yards
After a near miss last Saturday in The Wokingham, when Summerghand just failed to reach a horse we actually tipped for last year’s renewal, we focus on another big-field handicap this week but one that is at the other end of the scale in terms of distance.
The Northumberland Plate is run over a distance just a little over 2miles and, although a long-standing dish at Newcastle, since 2016 it has been run on the all-weather surface.
The race probably lacks a little in quality compared to recent years (possibly as a result of the reduced prize-money?) but it is no less competitive.
Anybody who looks at the stats for this race will see that, historically, it has paid to be drawn in the lower number stalls but those stats, of course, are largely based on runnings of the race on the old turf track and, since the switch to the tapeta surface, those drawn higher have been doing well. This shows the danger of placing too much reliance on historical trends and judging each race on its merits.
The current favourite for the race is AUSTRALIS who is a lightly-raced 4 year-old from the stable of in-form Roger Varian. He didn’t race as a 2 year-old but progressed through his 3 year-old days, improving after a gelding operation and a move onto the all-weather from turf. His record on an artificial surface is 2 wins and a 2nd place from just 3 starts.
He earned his place at the head of the market with a win at Wolverhampton earlier this morning where he got the better of 2 rivals who re-oppose here over a trip of 1m 6f. He raced prominently that day but did find himself trapped on the inside on a couple of occasions and showed a nice turn of pace to get himself out of trouble each time before digging deep to repel the late thrust of CARAVAN OF HOPE. He is yet to be tested at this distance but there is no major reason why he shouldn’t get the trip and he has a nice low racing-weight.
CARAVAN OF HOPE is one of two representatives in here for Hugo Palmer and, like Varian, he is a trainer with a good record up at Newcastle. This horse was trapped out wide for much of the race at Wolverhampton, and is reported to have a lost a shoe in running, so didn’t have much go for him that day. All things considered, it was a very creditable performance and he gets a 1lb pull in the weights over his conqueror in this contest so is entitled to be in the mix again. I’m not sure, however, if that small weight differential is enough to enable him to reverse the tables on AUSTRALIS and he never really looked like he was ever going to go past that rival last time. He is a consistent performer, however, and has never finished lower than 4th place in any of his races – that kind of record does make him look like a solid each-way horse.
Palmer’s other representative is COLLIDE and this 5 year-old son of Frankel does look to be his second-string. He won a listed contest in France in February before returning with a win at Chelmsford when stepped up to 1m 6f for the first time. He was then well beaten in a handicap at Ascot when, perhaps, finding the ground a little livelier than ideal just last week. This is quite a quick turnaround and it may come a little too soon for him.
Another trainer with 2 in the race is Mark Johnston. KINGS ADVICE was a winning machine for the yard last season and came into the renewal of this race last year on a potential 7-timer. He was, in my opinion, given a strange ride last year when, usually a horse who likes to race prominently, he was held up right out the back for much of the race. He came home well to finish 6th but it could be that the jockey rode him to ‘get the trip’ as it was his attempt over this far and he subsequently won his next 2 races back over 1m 6f. He has tried this trip three more times since but is yet to win so, for me, there remains a question mark over his stamina. Although he is 2lbs below his last winning-mark, he is 5lbs higher than last year and, whilst this is a drop in class compared to his previous 2 runs this season, I would rather see him run over slightly shorter.
His stable-mate ANYONECANHAVEITALL is one of the likely pace-setters in this race and it can often pay to be up with the pace at this track. The first bend comes up very quickly in this race, too, and those drawn low can find themselves squeezed and trapped behind a wall of horses if getting a tardy start. Conversely, those drawn wide can be trapped out there if not getting out and across promptly. This one is drawn wide, in stall 18, but I expect him to be ridden forcefully from the gate in order to get a prominent early position.
He had a pipe-opener with a good performance at Pontefract earlier this month when only headed in the final 100 yards or so by an improver from Paul Nicholls’ yard and went up 3lbs for that effort which allowed him to get into this race at the bottom of the weights.
He is a consistent performer and clearly gets the 2 mile trip well. In 6 runs at 2miles plus he has won twice, finished 2nd on three occasions and out of the frame just once.
That came in soft ground, too, so there may have been mitigating circumstances. He is a 4 year-old who seems to be improving with each race and has raced twice over course-and-distance, finishing 1st and 2nd, but does have very little experience of the hustle-bustle of big-field handicaps like this. This is a step up in class but he has Johnston’s main jockey on board and is sure to come on for his seasonal debut.
A horse who beat ANYONECANHAVEITALL last season is JUST HUBERT who is a stayer who progressed nicely last season. That win was one of three last summer and came on his try at 2 miles. He is, actually, 5lbs better off with the runner-up here and beat him by over a length. He is another with very little experience of big-field contests and this will only be his 3rd run on the all-weather having failed to win either of the first two. He came last on his reappearance at Haydock but ran well for much of the race before blowing up and was far from disgraced.
For horses who fail to make the cut for this contest, there is a consolation race run on the same card (Northumberland Vase) and the last two winners of that event line up here.
Two years ago, COSMELLI sprang a bit of surprise when taking the race, with a couple of today’s opponents in behind, but showed that to be no fluke when following up with a 5th place finish in this race 12 months ago. He also finished a creditable 8th in this race in 2017. The horse is now 8lbs lower than 12 months ago and 6lbs lower than when winning The Vase. In addition to this, his apprentice jockey takes off a handy 5lbs so the horse is set to carry just 7st 13lbs. The jockey, George Rooke, has ridden the horse to one of his victories for Gay Kellaway, when winning at Chelmsford in February, and has placed on one of the other 2 occasions he’s ridden him so they get on well together.
The horse ran a nice prep race for this when finishing 3rd, behind COLLIDE, at Chelmsford and was only beaten 2 lengths. He was staying on well over the 1m 6f trip and is now 9lbs better off with the winner after taking into account the jockey’s claim.
Last year The Vase was won in taking fashion by CARNWENNAN and he lines up here off a mark that is 9lbs higher. He has not won since that victory 12 months ago but he was in pretty decent form prior to the cessation of racing in March. He is a horse that is used to running in these big fields and, indeed, 3 of his 4 career wins so far have come in fields of 15 runners. He has also run well in 2 of his 3 starts at Newcastle as, in addition to his Vase victory, he finished 2nd here in February. His trainer is in good form right now and, with him having decided to skip an engagement at Ascot last week with him, this has clearly been the long-term plan.
The race that CARNWENNAN finished 2nd in here in February was won by SMART CHAMPION. He also runs here but finds himself 5lbs worse off with the runner-up. He will be suited by a true test here and ran well in defeat at Royal Ascot last week when finishing 4th over 2 ½ miles. He had quite a hard there, however, and has a tendency to break from the gates a little slowly which, from his draw, could leave him with plenty to do.
A trainer who had an excellent week at Ascot is Alan King and he will be hoping to follow up his victory last year in this race with, Ascot hero, Who Dares Wins when RAINBOW DREAMER heads to post. Hollie Doyle takes the ride and she was also on board when this horse ran a very respectable 4th place in the re-scheduled Group 3 Sagaro Stakes here earlier this month. That was the first time the horse had been beaten on the all-weather, having won all of his previous 5 starts on the surface. Given the connections and the record on an artificial track you have to respect the horse’s chances but he does face a stiff task from his current mark.
Like Alan King, Charlie Mann is better known for his exploits in the NH sphere but he has a rare runner here on the all-weather in the shape of FINANCIAL CONDUCT.
Originally trained in Ireland by Andy Oliver, he ran 7 times on the all-weather at Dundalk when aged 3 and 4 and won 3 of those races. The last of those came just over 2 years ago, off a mark of 88, and, after initially racing off higher in the UK, he now finds himself back on that same mark here. He was acquired by Qatar Racing in 2018 and trained by David Simcock but never fulfilled that early promise in Ireland and moved to Charlie Mann at the end of that year. Lightly-raced since over hurdles, he made his all-weather bow for Mann at this track on the first day after resumption in what was, presumably, a bit of a ‘sighter’ for this race. The race was over an inadequate trip but it ended badly when he was hampered and brought down by a fatally-injured horse in front of him. He should come on for that run, however, and, if none the worse for the incident, could be a real dark horse for a place at a huge price under an eye-catching jockey booking.
I had to work hard to narrow down my rather long short-list and, whilst I respect the chances of AUSTRALIS and CARAVAN OF HOPE, and the last one I discarded was ANYONECANHAVEITALL, I have finally come down on the side of the last two Vase winners.
COSMELLI is a selection based on his past form in these type of races at this venue and his lower handicap mark and, at decent odds, he could give us a nice run into the extended places at least. CARNWENNAN looks to have been laid out for this race and, whilst he is on a career-high mark, he looks suited to a race of this kind and represents a stable in fine form.
At much bigger odds, I can’t resist a small e/w stake on FINANCIAL CONDUCT. He is a bit of a speculative choice, and his recent exploits are nothing of note, but a return to his old Irish form would put him right there. He also gets first-time cheekpieces and the services of Silvestre De Sousa and he could be another who has been lined up for this from some way out.
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DAILY TIPS-:
There is rain forecast just about everywhere and that tempers confidence re Going conditions, as it could be heavy but very random.
There are a few we strongly fancy however, so will go with 3 TRACKER (50% stake 1/2 point each way bets) reduced purely due to Going in 2 cases and in the other a very competitive AW field of horses.
At Newcastle on the AW at 1.15 a very competitive 6 furlong handicap. The each way value could well come from the "in form" Tim Eastberby yard and STAXTON. The horse has had a run around 3 weeks ago. Won this race a year ago and back again off 5lbs higher. On a Course where trying to fathom any draw bias on the straight Course is literally a game of russianl roulette, a berth in stall 8 of 13 looks to cover all possible tactical angles. You do need luck in running here but this would clearly be the early season plotted race and a strong each way chance.
At Redcar 2.15 a Class 6 race full of frankly very poor animals and not your typical Saturday race. However, one with some decent form in context of the Grade and who has shown modicum of talent is BAWAADER. Kept to AW until a recent turf run at Leicester, looks to be on a decent mark if improving for that run.
Finally, a super quality Sprint at The Curragh at 6.15 and lots with liv chances. There is rain about but not huge amounts so Going should be no worse than Good to Soft by the "off". NO NEEDS NEVER gets the benefit of a cracking 7lbs claimer, has form on Good and Good to Yielding, is a strong finisher over this trip and looks to have an excellent each way shout at currently nice Odds for Joseph O'Brien.
That's all today, we will be back with more tomorrow at the usual Sunday time of around 10am