Haydock 2.50 - Elite Service
By DC Tips
Haydock 2.50
This class 2 handicap takes place over a trip of 1m 6 furlongs and, despite the mainly dry forecast up to race-time, the conditions are set to be soft which may make this a test.
The favourite, at the time of writing, is the progressive 4 year-old RHYTHMIC INTENT who lines up here following a very impressive performance last time at Newbury. That was over a distance just half a furlong shy of this trip, and it was his first attempt over a distance that far, but he wasn’t stopping at the line so gave the impression this trip should be no issue. He looked high-class that day and quickened smartly in the later stages of the race. Most of his best performances have been with plenty of cut in the ground with his form figures in soft reading 1-1-2.
He is up 6lbs for that win and Oisin Murphy, who has ridden the horse on his last 3 starts, takes a ride on something else but, although the trainer has not been in the best of form in the past week or so, he does have decent strike-rate here from a limited number of runners in recent times. The recent moderate form of the yard should not be taken as a clear pointer to this horse’s chances, however, as that was also the case when he won at Newbury.
The likely pace angle in this race is BRANDON CASTLE. This 8 year-old is a dual purpose horse and, with Hollie Doyle booked to ride, finds himself down at the foot of the weights. He arrives here in good form, having won twice recently over hurdles, and with his NH mark on the rise, connections may well be looking to exploit what looks like a decent handicap rating on the flat. He has won twice on the level off marks higher than this and is now 7lbs below his last winning-mark. That win came more than 2 years ago, admittedly, but he did get the better of last year’s winner of this race, Time To Study, on that occasion in heavy going over this trip up at Musselburgh. He clearly handles the mud with his 9 races in soft or heavy ground, on the flat, producing 3 wins and 5 places. If Hollie Doyle can get the fractions right on the front end, he could be difficult to pass and may prove to be decent value for a place at least. Somebody somewhere is expecting a big run, it seems, as his price has almost halved during Friday.
At the other end of the handicap is GLENCADAM GLORY who comes here looking to go one better than his excellent 2nd place finish in The Ebor a fortnight ago. This ex-John Gosden inmate ran his best race for new connections on that day, only giving way to the winner late in the day. He was suited by underfoot conditions that day and similar ground here is in his favour. He should run another solid race for a yard that always has to be respected but a 5lb rise does make things a little more difficult.
Two other horses who contested The Ebor re-appear here. STARGZER was well beaten there, finishing last after 17 months off, and, whilst he will probably strip fitter, he has it all to prove here. EUCHEN GLEN, on the other hand, ran a very good race at York and finished 5th. He is 6lbs better off with GLENCADAM GLORY, having been dropped 1lb, but he does need to come down the ratings more, in my opinion, to regain the winning thread. He finished 3rd in the race that BRANDON CASTLE won at Musselburgh but is some 18lbs worse off here.
Ian Williams has won this race for the last 2 years. Last year, he trained Time To Study, who was a winning selection for this service, and the year before he won it with RESHOUN and that horse reappears here, looking for a repeat win, having also finished 3rd twelve months ago.
He is now 10lbs higher than when he won this in 2018 and 7lbs higher than last year, and it would need a career-best for him to triumph here, so he does have it all to do on the basis of that. However, the trainer’s record in the race has to be respected and, having held more than one entry for the race at the 5-day stage, the fact that he relies on just RESHOUN here is worthy of note. The booking of Jim Crowley is also a plus, as he has ridden the horse to all 4 of his wins in this country, and his record when teaming up with this trainer at this venue is very good.
He was well beaten in a listed contest at Chester, last time out, but is proven at this level and in these ground conditions so is not one to dismiss too lightly.
RESHOUN won over 2 miles at Newbury in July and 2 of those he defeated re-oppose here. In 2nd place that day was RAJINSKY and he has run a series of good races this season without yet getting his head in front. The only issue with being so consistent is that he has been creeping up the handicap as a result. He looks to be an out-and-out stayer, and has run mainly at 2 miles so far this season, but in the soft ground this drop back in trip should be no issue. He has won in heavy going, so will not mind the going, and he represents a combination who are really second to none in recent seasons at this venue. He is another who is likely to race prominently and may try to make this a test for those, as yet, unproven at the trip.
The other horse from that Newbury race was JUST IN TIME. That was his first appearance on the track following 19 months off and he ran well for a long way, looking likely to play a part in the finish at one stage, before fading in the final furlong or so. He, then, produced a very similar performance last time out at York, when again behind RAJINSKY, over 2 miles once more. His record and profile suggests that he, perhaps, does not quite get that trip and the step back in distance here may be just what is required. Indeed, his record over this trip is a perfect 3 wins from 3 runs with the last of those wins coming in The Mallard at Doncaster in 2018 off a mark just 1lb lower than he runs from here.
Alan King is another trainer who had more than one entry for this race at the 5-day stage (both for the same owner) but with the other taking his chance at Ascot on Friday, when finishing 2nd, he relies on just this 6 year-old here. Ground conditions should not be an issue, as he does have a soft ground win to his name – a victory at Leicester, 3 years ago, when getting the better of RESHOUN.
In addition to Ian Williams, another trainer who has done well in this race in the past is Mark Johnston. He has won the race 4 times and is represented this year by CAPE COAST. He has run twice this season, following a near 3 year break from the track, and won last time out at Newbury (with RESHOUN back in 4th) over this trip in soft ground. In 6 starts on turf, he has never finished out of the first 2 but has gone up 5lbs for that victory last time. He is very lightly raced, and may still have plenty of improvement to come, and, given the trainer’s record in this, has to be respected.
A trainer with a good record in handicaps at this venue is Andrew Balding and he has, also, had 2 horses placed in this contest in recent years from just 3 runners. He runs the 5 year-old DIOCLETIAN here and he is the horse that the champion jockey, Oisin Murphy, rides instead of RHYTHMIC INTENT. He appears to be a straightforward horse but he has been running, largely, on ground that has been too quick for him so far this season. The one exception was last time when he finished 4th in the same listed race that RESHOUN ran in at Chester. He has raced on soft ground twice in his career, so far, winning one and finishing 2nd in the other and this step back into handicap company is more his level. He will probably go hurdling in the winter and he could be another who doesn’t quite get the 2 miles on the flat but finds this trip his optimum.
Another who should be better suited back at this trip rather than 2 miles is AUSTRALIS. He is yet to win on turf but does have a good record on the all-weather and ran a good race to finish 2nd in The Northumberland Plate earlier this season. He finished ahead of RESHOUN, GLECADAM GLORY and RAJINSKY on that occasion and is weighted to finish in front of all of them once more. This, however, is on turf and he is, as yet, unproven on soft going. His last run on turf came at Ascot when finishing 5th over 2 miles and, although he didn’t get the best of runs through, he was well beaten. The blinkers return here, for the first time this season, and his record in his 3 starts with this particular aid is a 1st place and a pair of 2nd place finishes. Andrea Atzeni, who this week rode his 1,000th winner in Britain, also returns to ride for the first time in over a year.
4 year-olds have a decent record in this race in recent years and one of that age group who has been quite well supported this week is FUTURE INVESTMENT. He has some good form in the book and last time out he showed that this trip was well within his compass when stepping up in trip and winning at Chester over 2 miles. Prior to that he had indicated that he needed a longer trip when staying on well into the places at Newbury and Newmarket. In the former race, he finished ahead of RAJINSKY and actually meets that rival on 1lb better terms here. The form of that race was franked on Friday when the winner won at Ascot. The trainer has a good record at this track with his entrants in contests for horses 4 years and older showing a 33% strike-rate in the last 5 years. Harry Bentley makes the journey North for the ride which could also be significant. He is up 6lbs for his last win but he is unexposed at staying trips so has to be of strong interest.
This looks a good quality renewal of the race this year and the ability to stay in this ground could be key. RHYTHMIC INTENT was very impressive last time and it’s easy to see why he has been so well supported in the market. He may well win but the value has really gone now so I’d rather find one to oppose him at an each-way price. BRANDON CASTLE is very dangerous lurking at the bottom of the card and, if getting an easy lead, he may be difficult to pass. RAJINSKY likes to race prominently, as does AUSTRALIS, and both are also live dangers. RESHOUN has done it all before in this race but may find his rating a little high here to win this so my main pick is going to be JUST IN TIME. He is unbeaten over this trip and, having run creditably over 2 miles on his first two races back from a break, the move back in trip on his 3rd outing after a break looks the right move. He has a wide draw, which is a slight negative, but the way he moved through his last two races gives hope that he can return to his form from two years ago.
To supplement the main pick, I’m going to have two half-stakes ‘tracker’ bets in the shape of DIOCLETIAN and FUTURE INVESTMENT. The former will welcome some ‘dig’ in the ground and the step back in class whilst the latter is still unexposed over staying trips and has some good form in the book which gives him the edge of some others in here.
TIP - Just In Time - 1 point each way / Trackers Diocletian + Future Investment - both 1/2 point each way