Goodwood 2.25
By DC Tips
No real big-field handicaps to attack this Saturday and, generally, small fields on show at the main meetings. At the time of writing, this class 2 handicap, over 7 furlongs, is set to have 10 runners go to post and it is, probably, the most competitive race of the day.
After the deluge of rain of the last few days, the going is currently described as ‘heavy’ and, with a dry day forecast for Saturday, the ground could be quite sticky and testing and make this a test. It would not be a surprise to see a non-runner or two but let’s work on the basis of all 10 horses standing their ground.
There are plenty of horses in here who have been somewhat out of form so far this season but one who certainly doesn’t fall into that category is MAGICAL WISH. Richard Hannon’s 4 year-old has run two very good races in the last month. The first of those came over course-and-distance in a big-field handicap at the Festival where he was just run out of things in the final furlong off 3lbs lower than here under this jockey. He, then, won next time out, at Doncaster, showing a game attitude. He has only been raised 2lbs for that success and, with his apprentice jockey returning and claiming 3lbs, he is, effectively, 1lb lower here.
The only other last-time-out winner in the field is MILLTOWN STAR although that win did come last November when he claimed a listed contest in France in heavy ground. He does, therefore, have a lengthy absence to overcome but this 3 year-old did have some decent form as a juvenile and he does handle these very soft conditions.
Richard Hannon has two horses in the race and his second entrant is the top-weight OH THIS IS US. He is now a 7 year-old and finished 9th in this contest last year. He did, however, get rather boxed in near the rail on that occasion, which can be an issue for hold-up horses drawn low here, and was unable to get a clear run. He is drawn in a higher stall today, so, hopefully, will not have that issue, and is 2lbs lower, but he was comfortably beaten by MAGICAL WISH last time at Doncaster and is only 1lb better off here. He is, however, one of a number in here who look well-handicapped on old form, having won a total 8 times off marks in excess of what he runs from here.
Another with two horses entered here is Mark Johnston and he is always a trainer to take very seriously in handicaps at this track. Stable jockey Joe Fanning rides the one right at the foot of the weights and that is the 3 year-old MONOSKI. This horse has only won once in his career so far and that came over 6 furlongs at Pontefract last season. He started off the season on a mark of 100, following some creditable runs in Group contests last term behind the likes of Pinatubo and Wichita, but has quickly dropped down to a perch of just 87. He has been gelded since his last run, in the middle of last month, and he has to be worth a second look given his trainer and jockey’s record here, but he is not proven over this trip nor at this course or in this ground.
The other Johnston horse is another who now looks very well-handicapped and that is CARDSHARP. He finds himself in here off a mark of 98 and that is the first time in his career that he has dropped to a mark below 100. Like many of his trainer’s string, he is a horse that is kept busy but he has not won since last May. That was off a mark some 9lbs higher than he runs off here and came over his preferred 7 furlong trip. His last two runs have been poor but it is not unusual for this trainer’s horses to follow up below-par efforts with good ones. In fairness, his last run came from a wide draw on the all-weather whilst the time before he ran over a mile and he has never proven that he really gets that trip. This, in fact, is his first run back over 7 furlongs on turf since finishing a fine 3rd at Ascot last month, behind Blue Mist. He was ridden by Adam Kirby that day, and he returns to take the ride here, whilst he also had two of today’s opponents well behind. Now 3lbs lower than for that run, he is very much one for the short-list here.
One of those well behind CARDSHARP at Ascot was JACKS POINT. He had previously run well at that track when finishing a gallant 2nd in The Buckingham Palace Handicap behind Motakhayyel who, of course, then franked the form next time by winning The Bunbury Cup. JACKS POINT has run well here twice before, finishing 2nd on each occasion, but is 2lbs worse off with CARDSHARP from Ascot, having finished 5 lengths behind, and Martin Dwyer, who usually rides, is not on board this time.
The other horse from the Ascot contest that competes here is COLD STARE. He was beaten even further, finishing 18th of the 19th runners, but would not have been suited by the quick ground that day. He is a proper ‘soft ground horse’, and his trainer has described him as the most ground-dependent horse in his stable, so he should be suited by underfoot conditions here. He ran well, when finishing 2nd in soft ground at Haydock, last month but was rather disappointing on the face of it last time at Newbury when seemingly he got his conditions once more. He is a horse that needs to be held up and that may cause a problem from his starting stall of number 1 on the inside.
One horse against whom the ground definitely looks to have gone is BREATH OF AIR. He started this season with a win over the aforementioned Blue Mist at Newbury before following that with two lesser efforts. Last time, he nearly took advantage of a small step down in grade when beaten a nose at Haydock. He has never raced on soft or heavy ground but did get the better of recently-retired crack mile Mohaather almost two years ago in Good To soft going at Newbury. His trainer is in good form at present, and Ryan Moore rides, but the ground conditions have to be a big concern here.
In addition to COLD STARE, two others who won’t mind the deteriorating ground conditions are ALEMARATALYOUM and BATTERED.
The former, rather reflecting the form of his trainer, has not been at the top of his game since racing resumed at the start of June and comes here on the back of a very poor run at Chester last week where he finished last of the 12 runners. Indeed, his only creditable run so far this season came at Epsom, at the beginning of July, when, as a suggestion of this service he finished a creditable 3rd (at 28/1) in a class 3 handicap over this trip. MAGICAL WISH was back in 9th that day and Stuart Williams’ horse is 6lbs better off here, having finished more than 3 lengths ahead. Two factors give hope of another improved run here over what he has been producing. Firstly, the track. He has finished 1st and 2nd in his two visits to this track with the latter seeing him defeat the 108 rated and recent Group 3 winner Glenn Shiel by 4 lengths in heavy ground last September. He has also run some good races at Epsom which is not too dissimilar to this course. Secondly, ground conditions here will be his optimum. In 7 runs where the ground was officially soft or heavy he has won on 4 occasions and never finished out of the first 4. He runs off 91 here which is ony 1lb above the mark he raced off when defeating Glen Shiel last year. As the rain continued to fall on Friday, there was a real plunge on this horse and his odds have roughly halved in less than 24 hours. There are plenty of front-runners in here and the likely strong pace, in the conditions, may play to the strengths of this horse.
BATTERED is another who will welcome the muddy conditions here. He finished well ahead of ALEMARATALYOUM last week at Chester and prior to that he was 6th in the race here where MAGICAL WISH finished as runner-up. Previously with William Haggas, he has dropped 12lbs in the ratings since joining his current yard and he is another who now looks well-treated on his old form. Oisin Murphy takes the ride here and he is another who has been supported during Friday.
This race may not be blessed with a large volume of runners but it is certainly competitive. The ground conditions will be key and the unique nature of this track also means that course form can be important here.
CARDSHARP has not won here but he has run some good races on soft ground over course-and-distance, including a 3rd place in a Group 3 race. He has dropped to an all-time low handicap mark and, with his trainer having such a good record here, he gets the vote over his stable-mate who is not proven either at the track or in the ground.
ALEMARATALYOUM also ticks the box regarding course form plus he has an excellent record in deep ground. His form has mirrored that of his handler so far this season but a return to this track in optimum ground conditions can see him in better light, providing his low draw does not cause him to be trapped down on the fence.
TIPS-: Alemaratalyoum + Cardsharp - both 1 point each way