Goodwood 1.45
By DC Tips
The second race of the 5-day Goodwood Festival sees a maximum field of 18 runners head to post for this 1m 2f contest.
Although a little bit like Epsom earlier this month, Goodwood is a course that has its own unique set of bends and undulations to deal with when they race over this distance.
After climbing uphill early on, they round a bend at the top of the course before free-wheeling downhill for much of the way to the line, with a camber taking horses down towards the far rail as they finish. With a maximum field doing battle all of the undulations can bring interference at vital stages of the race and you can often need plenty of luck in running (or rather avoid any bad luck!).
It's interesting that the two horses at the head of the betting market, at the time of writing, are drawn in the two widest stalls so each of their jockeys will have a decision to make early on as to whether they rush their charge up and across (but risk using valuable petrol) or to drop in from the wide berth and wait until the straight before taking their chances.
The current favourite is CAPE CAVALLI and this 4 year-old has a good record at this track, which can be a big plus, having finished 1st and 3rd in his two visits so far. In 10 career starts to date he has only finished outside of the first 3 once, so is a very consistent performer, but he does have little experience of racing in fields of this size. He won comfortably in a class 4 contest last time and has gone up 8lbs in the handicap for that success. His excellent claiming jockey does cancel out 3lbs of this hike with his allowance but he does face a stiffer contest here than last time. He probably is deserving of his status at the head of the market but his price is a little too short for me in a competitive handicap like this.
Drawn widest of all is DEREVO. Ridden here by Ryan Moore, this Michael Stoute-trained 4 year-old has won 2 of his 4 starts in handicaps so far but is 5lbs higher than for the last of those a year ago. He shaped with promise on his seasonal reappearance when 3rd at Doncaster behind, the winner, FIFTH POSITION and was one place ahead of SKY DEFENDER and both of those horses renew rivalry here. He is 5lbs better off with both of those horses here and is also some 8lbs better off with CAPE CAVALLI compared to when they met last October at Newmarket. He finished one length ahead of the Crisford horse that day although the race did come over 1 ½ miles. All of his best runs have come in smaller fields and the only time he has finished outside the first 4 was in a large field of 19 runners so that is a niggle.
Mark Johnston always does well at this meeting and, indeed, has been the leading trainer at this festival for the past 4 years. He has won this race on 6 occasions in the past and relies on two runners this time around.
The first is recent Epsom winner, the aforementioned, SKY DEFENDER. He flopped last time out, at York, but the fact that Epsom is not entirely dissimilar to Goodwood does offer hope that he can bounce back here and it is certainly not unusual for horses from this yard to run well on the back of a poor run. He is on a career-high mark, following his Epsom success, and is a horse who likes to lead. His jockey, Joe Fanning, has a good record at this track and is a very good judge of pace. Whilst I don’t see him winning this, it would not be a surprise to see him run a big race at decent odds.
The other Johnston runner finds himself near the other end of the weights and much higher up in the betting. That horse is MAYDANNY and, unlike his stable-mate, he is very lightly raced for a 4 year-old. After a couple of 2nd place finishes in his only outings last season, he won on seasonal return at Yarmouth with the form of that race being boosted several times since by the runner-up. He then finished 7th in The Silver Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot but actually ‘won’ the race in his group drawn on the wrong side of the track. He does, however, have to bounce back from a disappointing run last time at Newmarket and this is his first try at this trip. The intriguing point for me, however, is that the retained jockey for the high-profile owner of this horse is not riding here and has chosen a mount from another owner instead.
The retained rider, of course, is Jim Crowley and he is riding RESTORER for Ian Williams and Dr Koukash here. He is a jockey that has had to make several big calls in the last month or so when it comes to big-race rides and more often than not his judgement has proven correct. He rode RESTORER last time out when he won at Newbury on seasonal debut. That was a welcome return to form for a horse who had endured a rather indifferent 2019 and came off a much reduced mark. He is up 4lbs here but is still well below the kind of mark he has won off in the past. He is an 8 year-old now so is, clearly, far more exposed than most in this field but his win last time showed he was still in good heart. He can, sometimes, be a little slowly away from the stalls, which could pose a problem from his low berth if he gets trapped down on the inside near the fence, but Jim Crowley rides this course as well as anybody and will, hopefully, ensure that this is not the case.
At the other end of the spectrum to RESTORER, in terms of race experience is YURI GAGARIN who appears here for John Gosden in the famous blue colours of Godolphin. He has only raced 3 times in his life with 2 of those coming since racing’s resumption last month. He won well in a novice event at Kempton in June before clearly not staying the 1 ½ mile trip last time at Newmarket. This step back in distance is probably a good move and William Buick is another jockey who rides this course well. Any horse sent out by this excellent trainer has to be fully respected – particularly as he boasts a 37% strike-rate with his horses aged 4+ at the course in the last 5 years.
YURI GAGARIN is one of three horses in here who have yet to run over this trip. As mentioned above, MAYDANNY is another whilst the same also applies to BELL ROCK. This son of Kingman has been racing over a mile and was highly tried last summer before being gelded and put away for the winter. He returned this year in a handicap at Newmarket, staying on strongly to win, before running a creditable race when finishing 6th in The Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. He is well regarded by his trainer and his owners are based not very far from Goodwood, and love having winners here, but he does have to prove himself over this trip and may prefer faster ground.
This race was won last year by David O’Meara and he looks to repeat the dose twelve months on with TINANDALI. He is a horse we tipped on this service last time out in The John Smiths Cup at York and he was a fast finishing and slightly unlucky 5th on that occasion. He was held up near the back that day and had to sit and wait for a gap to appear. By the time he got out, the race was over but he ran through to the line really strongly and caught my eye. Unfortunately, it appears he also caught the eye of many others and he has now been well found in the market, having been steadily backed in the last 24 hours. Previously trained by Dermot Weld, in Ireland, connections do think that he is capable of performing at a higher level than this and had run well earlier this season at both Ayr and Epsom. The fact he handled Epsom so well offers hope for another good run here under Danny Tudhope who rode last year’s winner for O’Meara.
That John Smiths Cup race at York saw FIFTH POSITION finish 3rd and he has been in decent form since racing returned. Previous to the York run, he had won well at Doncaster and finished 3rd in a ‘hot’ race at Newcastle. His performance at York was more meritorious given he raced prominently with the pace for much of the contest. He ran well in some decent contests last season, including at this track, and signed off with a creditable performance in The Cambridgeshire. Andrea Atzeni is back on board here, having missed the York ride, and if the first-time blinkers have a positive impact, it’s easy to see him being in the mix if the York race has not taken too much out of him.
The horse who just gets into this contest at the bottom of weights is Roger Fell’s SUCELLUS. Having left John Gosden’s stable, following an ownership change, at the start of the season, his bare form figures so far this year do not look great but he has been running with more promise than the results suggest. Last time out he was slowly away, at York, over a clearly inadequate trip and was doing all of his best work at the end and would have finished closer had he not been denied a clear run in the final stages of the race. Prior to that he had also run on well from the back, at Epsom, and, off his last winning mark, he should enjoy the extra yardage here compared to last time out. The trainer form does not look great, with just one winner from his last 38 runners, but quite a number have been getting placed in the last week or so and it is not as if the stable’s horses are all running badly.
This is certainly a very competitive contest and I think it is worth taking on the current top two in the market. Narrowing the short-list down one at a time, the last two to be crossed off my list were YURI GAGARIN, who is still unexposed and could be anything, and FIFTH POSITION who has been running some solid races and has Atzeni back in the saddle. TINANDALI ran a nice race last time, to claim some enhanced place money for us, and, with more luck in running this time, could go very close for last year’s winning connections. The price has shortened in the last day or so but there is still some each-way value left in there for a horse who could be much better than this grade. At bigger prices, I think it is worth taking a punt on SUCELLUS who actually beat the favourite in here (CAPE CAVALLI) last September and is now 7lbs better off but 4 times the price. He has shaped as though his time is near the last twice. At even bigger odds, RESTORER is well-handicapped on his old form and, with the ground still likely to be on the softish side of good, he will have his optimum conditions. The fact that Jim Crowley has also chosen to remain on board, rather than ride for his retained owner, could also be significant and, with the enhanced places on offer, he is worth chancing at the current odds.
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