Epsom 5:35pm
By DC Tips
ELITE - Epsom 5.35
This 7 furlong handicap is the concluding race on Epsom’s Derby Day card and it is a race usually run as the final race on Oaks Day in ‘normal’ years.
The 7 furlong course at Epsom is a sharp one, with a tight left-hand bend and you need a horse with gears to be successful here. The stats indicate that a low draw is often most favoured but when the ground gets softer they can come across to the stands-side rail which favours those drawn highest.
When looking through the race, I believe that a strong pace looks likely here with a number of horses in here, such as MUNTADAB, CORAZON ESPINADO, HATEYA and TINTORETTO, who like to race very prominently. The track had plenty of rain through Thursday evening which eased conditions a little and, with further showers forecast through the early hours of Saturday and into the morning, the ground is likely to ride no better than Good and may even have a little bit of ‘Good To Soft’ in the description by the afternoon.
As a starting point, it may be worth looking at last year’s renewal of the race as a key piece of form as 3 of the 4 horses who fought out the finish that day meet again today.
The race was won by CORAZON ESPINADO who led from the gate and was never headed. His fast start really paid dividends that day and he was able to grab a handy position on the rail and dictate from the front. Challenged up the straight he fought bravely to hold on at the line and record his 3rd success at Epsom. This is a track where course form is important and, in 7 visits to his local track, he has also placed 3 times. The only time he has finished out of the frame here came in a 1m 2f contest two years ago – the only time he has raced over that far. His draw in stall 12 makes things a little more difficult this year but if Andrea Atzeni can get him to break as smartly as last year then he may be able to get the prominent position he favours. He ran with credit on the all-weather over the winter and, after a pipe-opener at Lingfield 4 weeks ago, he should be primed for a big run here off a mark which, although 3lbs higher than last year, is one he won from back in January.
The horse who finished 2nd last year, beaten just a short-head, is back here, also, looking for revenge and that is HATEYA. He is another horse trained locally and, also, has a decent course record with one win and three placed efforts from just five starts. He appears here off a mark just 1lb higher than last year but that is some 12lbs higher than a mark he has ever won off before. That win came at this track but it was two years ago and it was the last time he got his head in front. He has had two runs already since resumption and has been well supported in the market on Friday, suggesting a big run is expected. In previous seasons, he has run well on his 3rd start each, suggesting he needs a couple of outings to get him right, but he does face a stiff task off his mark here.
Back in 4th in last year’s contest was ALEMARATALYOUM. He runs off a 1lb lower mark here so, in theory, he is weighted to reverse the form with the other two horses as he was beaten less than a length. He actually looked like the most likely winner last year at the one furlong pole but was never able to land a telling blow in the end. That was the only run so far at this track for this 6 year-old, who is a bit of a Haydock specialist, but he certainly seemed to handle this difficult track well enough and he does have good form at Goodwood which, in some aspects, is quite similar to here. He goes very well with cut in the ground (has won twice on heavy and twice on soft) so any rain that arrives in excess of that expected will be a positive for him. He does have a difficult wide draw to overcome here, and the trainer form is a bit of a concern, but he has won off a mark just 2lbs lower than this in the past so if the rain does soften the ground he is more than capable of making the frame at a nice price.
Drawn down on the rail, in stall 1, is REPUTATION who makes his debut here for Ian Williams. This horse comes here with a declining handicap mark and runs off a mark in the 80s for the first time since winning at Ripon two years ago. He was in the hands of John Quinn back then and spent last season in the care of Ruth Carr before switching stables again recently. He won first time out last season, on his first run for Ruth Carr, and is the sort of horse his current handler has done well with in the past. He is yet to win over this far but has won at this course over 6 furlongs. His hold-up style of running may make him a bit of a hostage to fortune from his inside draw and his stable is another who is yet to really fire since resumption.
Another interesting horse drawn low is COMIN’ THROUGH who races here off a mark 20lbs lower than his rating when running for the first time on these shores just over 12 months ago. He was a Group 1 winner in Australia but really showed very little last year in his first season in this hemisphere. Connections drew stumps early and the horse didn’t run after the middle of July after which he was given a wind operation. He ran well enough in a mile handicap at Newcastle after the restart of racing last month and the form of that race is starting to look very good whilst there was more encouragement last time out at Newmarket when he came 3rd. He finished ahead of ALEMARATALYOUM on that occasion but is 4lbs worse off here and only finished 1 length ahead. He does, however, look well handicapped now based on his old form and, if building on his promising start to the season, he could go well at nice odds. He did, however, finish last on his only visit to this track so that is a small concern.
MUNTADAB is a real 7 furlong specialist and has won over the distance no fewer than 7 times. The last of his wins, however, came back in October 2018 and, after a largely disappointing 2019, he now finds himself 16lbs lower than that last winning mark. He has run two very good races since racing resumed and will, no doubt, be in the firing line from early on here with his good draw. He could make a bold bid, and should not be too inconvenienced by any rain that gets into the ground.
Up-and-coming trainer Tom Ward runs a couple in this race. DIRTY RASCAL ran a number of good races for Richard Hannon in 2019 but was well beaten at Ascot, over 6f, last month and needs to bounce back here whilst TINTORETTO comes here seeking a hat-trick following a brace of all-weather wins either side of the lockdown. All-weather form can often translate well here, so connections will be hopeful, but he is up another 5lbs here.
Two horses come into this race having met just under 3 weeks ago in a 6 furlong contest at Windsor. On that occasion, DREAM TODAY finished 3rd, staying on well at the line, and is dropped 2lbs here compared to that race. He has not won a race since victory at Meydan early in 2019 on what was his debut for this stable but he has been racing almost exclusively at 6 furlongs in that time. He had some good 2 year-old form when trained by Mark Johnston, including a good 2nd place finish behind Ghaiyyath, and won his only other race over 7 furlongs in that juvenile season. The way he finished off his race at Windsor would suggest that having another stab at this trip is worth a go.
Back in 6th at Windsor, but just ½ length behind DREAM TODAY, was COUNT OTTO and he was another doing his best work at the line. That had also been the case the time before when just beaten a neck, again over 6 furlongs, at Newmarket but he really caught my eye at Windsor as he just got stopped in his run at a crucial stage just over a furlong out and lost some momentum. By the time the jockey was able to get him going again, it was too late and he had too much ground to make up on the principals. He may not have won but would, undoubtedly, have been closer and he has been dropped 1lb following that run.
He is another with good course form here, with a win and a 2nd place from his 2 starts, albeit they have come over 6 furlongs. He has yet to win over this trip but has only attempted it on 4 occasions and this is a sharp 7 furlongs so it is worth another try based on how he has shaped the last twice. The jockey booking is very eye-catching as Jim Crowley has a very good record when riding for the trainer, Amanda Perrett, who is, of course, his sister-in-law. The horse has won off a mark 3lbs higher than this but the one concern I would have is if the ground were to turn too soft. He should be ok on genuinely good ground but if any softer than that he may be vulnerable.
Of the others in the race, KNOWING GLANCE makes the long journey down from Yorkshire and is the trainer’s only runner on the card. He looks to have a decent draw, and was in good form on the all-weather in the winter, but he is now on a career-high mark.
MARKAZI is another Northern raider, and ran well last time at Ayr, but is now 4lbs higher than his last winning mark.
Proven course form is often key in handicaps here and no horse in the race has any better form at this track than CORAZON ESPINADO. He has to overcome a trickier draw than last year but, if the jockey can fire him out of the start, he can, hopefully, get a good early position. With proven form over slightly further too and no real ground concerns he rates a solid each-way proposition with the enhanced places on offer.
For a ‘tracker’ selection, I am really torn between ALEMARATALYOUM and COUNT OTTO. On the basis that the rain doesn’t arrive in any significant quantity, I would just side with COUNT OTTO who has shaped as though this extra furlong will suit on his last two runs and the booking of Jim Crowley indicates that a decent run is expected. If the ground did get softer, however, there is a chance that the horse could be pulled out and, in that case, I would recommend a small saver on ALEMARATALYOUM.
TIPS - Corazon Espinado + Count Otto - both 1 point each way (see notes re Alemaratalyoum)