Epsom 3.45
By DC Tips
Epsom 3.45 The Dash - 5 Furlongs - Class 2 - 20 run - Good to Soft
Whilst the eyes of the racing world will be on The Derby at 4.30, the race that immediately precedes it in this year’s running order is The Epsom Dash and it is a competitive handicap sprint that has attracted 20 runners. It is a race that is run downhill over what is probably the fastest 5 furlongs in the world. It is a pretty unique test in that regard and not all horses will be suited by it. There are, however, a number who seem to thrive on this track and several of them, not for the first time, compete here. It can be a rough race and luck in running is often needed. The stats say that you need to be drawn high but it is often the case that a horse able to lead can win from any draw.
On paper this year’s renewal does not look as strong as those run in recent times, with those at the top of the weights probably rated 5-7lbs below what would normally be expected to be the case but it is still fiendishly competitive and the betting market indicates this.
The race was sadly lost last year, due to Covid restrictions, so the last renewal was in 2019 and the winning horse from that race returns here to defend his crown. That is ORNATE and he runs here off a 1lb lower mark than that day. He is a horse who is usually very speedy from the gate and, for that reason, a track like Epsom probably suits. His win here two years ago was his only appearance at the track so far but he has also run well at Goodwood, a similar downhill speed track, placing in a couple of group races behind Battaash, in the past. He looked as if he needed the run, after a ten week break, when finishing down the field at Haydock last weekend and his trainer, David Griffiths, who is a dab hand with sprinters, has a decent record in this race in recent years. I expect him to make a bold bid to retain his crown here and he is one for the shortlist.
Griffiths also runs the veteran DUKE OF FIRENZE this year and he, too, is bidding to win the race for a second time. His victory in this contest came all the way back in 2013 when he was in the care of Michael Stoute and he is now 19lb lower in the handicap than on that day. He is a popular animal and a bit of a regular at Epsom and in this race in particular. This will be his 7th outing in the contest and, in addition to his win, he has finished 3rd twice in the past. He has to run from 1lb out of the handicap here, and is a horse that likes to be produced late so will need some luck in running, but he could easily give a good account of himself here.
Whilst the two David Griffiths’ runners are looking for a second win in the race, CASPIAN PRINCE bids to claim the prize for a fourth time having won in 2014, 2016 and 2017. Each of those wins were gained for different trainers and he bids to give Mick Appleby a win in the race at the third time of asking. Like ORNATE, he is another who is very sharp away from the stalls and the 12 year-old could help set the pace, alongside David Griffiths’ charge, from the low numbered stalls. He has won 21 races in his long career and showed with two wins last summer that the fire still burns bright. He has dropped in the weights this year, after a couple of sub-par efforts in April, following a spell in Dubai over the winter, which means he is below his winning marks from last year. A near 7-week break may have freshened him up and he is another who could run well in the race once more.
Another horse likely to go forward in the early stages from a low draw is RECON MISSION. He ran in the 2019 renewal but, after racing prominently early, faded to finish well down the field on that occasion. He showed that there are no issues with the track, however, by returning here in April to win over course-and-distance, off a much-reduced mark, and he is just 3lbs higher here. His claiming jockey, who retains the ride here, takes off a handy 3lbs and he looks well-treated on some of his old form but, with one exception, most of his good form has come in much smaller fields than this and he doesn’t always take to the hurly-burly of these big-field handicaps.
The other pace angle drawn low looks to be LORD RIDDIFORD. He has been in good form on the all-weather over the winter, winning 3 times, and runs here off his 13lb lower turf mark. His exploits on turf have never quite matched those on an artificial surface and it is nearly 3 years now since his last win on the grass. He has never run at Epsom but has run a couple of decent races at Goodwood and it was at the Sussex course that he recorded that last turf win.
As far as pace from the higher side of the draw is concerned, that may be provided by the Irish raider ONLY SPOOFING who will come out of stall 20 right up against the stands rail. Previously based in the UK with Jedd O’Keefe, this 7 year-old switched to his current yard earlier this year and has run 4 times for current connections and winning the last of those at Navan last month. His last win in the UK came last July, at Goodwood, and has also previously won at Hamilton which is another similar downhill track for much of the 5 furlongs distance. He is clearly a contender to take seriously, particularly as Tom Marquand has ‘jumped ship’ from his regular ride on ROSE HIP to take the ride, but he does find himself 9lbs higher than at Navan and some 6lbs above his highest winning mark previously. He, also, will not want the ground to have eased too much following the rain.
Drawn next to ONLY SPOOFING is a horse who has seen some interesting market support during Friday and that is SUNDAY SOVEREIGN. He is one of two entries for King Power Racing and is the choice of retained jockey Silvestre De Sousa. This 4 year-old is lightly-raced, having only run 8 times so far, and is another who likes to race prominently. He started his career in Ireland and, via one run for Roger Varian, he joined his current yard in August last year. He has had only 3 runs for the stable and ran his best race last time out when 2nd at York. That came on soft ground so the rain that fell at the course on Friday will be in his favour and he had a couple of today’s opponents in behind. Although he’s yet to win this particular race, the jockey has as good a record as anybody at Epsom whilst Tim Easterby has a decent record in the race, having won it ten years ago and also having 3 placed horses in the last decade. If reproducing some of his Irish 2 year-old form and getting a good position near the stands rail, this one rates a big danger to all.
The other King Power entry is one of the horses competing for a place at the head of the market and that is the joint top-weight STONE OF DESTINY. He is another drawn high here but that may not be an advantage for a horse who can often start slowly and he may find himself quickly behind a wall of horses so champion jockey Oisin Murphy will have to try to get him to break smartly. The horse has only won twice on turf but his last win was an impressive one last season in The Portland Handicap at Doncaster. He has been raised 3lbs for a decent 2nd place finish last month at Goodwood and he does seem to prefer fast ground also so the easing of the ground in the last 24 hours is not in his favour.
Also vying for favouritism at the time of writing is COPPER KNIGHT and he is another one running for Tim Easterby. He is a horse who has always been kept busy during his career and, after a winless 2020, he got his head back in front at York last month off a much reduced mark. He has been competitive off marks over 100 in the past and, even with a rise for his York win, he is only on a mark of 90 here. He finished 5th last time and was behind SUNDAY SOVEREIGN but he is 3lbs better off with his stable-mate here. He could only finish 12th in the 2019 renewal and I’m not sure that this York specialist is really suited by this type of downhill track.
MOKAATIL is a horse that ticks a number of boxes here and one of those is form at Epsom. He won here in 2019 but that was over 6 furlongs and he may find this test a little too sharp. He ran in the 2019 renewal but could only finish 14th and he is another who will not want too much ease in the ground.
Joint top-weight is EXALTED ANGEL and he had an excellent winter on the all-weather with a campaign that ended with a 2nd place finish at all-weather finals day. He missed all of the turf season in 2020 and has returned this season in slightly underwhelming fashion. He was probably not suited by the heavy ground last time at Haydock but, although the step back in trip and better ground should suit more here, he is yet to win in the UK on grass.
BLUE DE VEGA represents sprint king Robert Cowell in this year’s race and he bids to improve on his 3rd and 4th place finishes in the last two runnings. In both of those races he hit the line strongly having not enjoyed the clearest of runs. He is another drawn low so should get a nice pace to tow him into the race in the closing stages. He is a horse who always seems to do better in the second half of the season and has never won a race before the last week of July in any year, so has that stat to overcome, but he is versatile in terms of ground and is 5lbs below his last winning mark which was only in October. He exploited a falling mark with a hat-trick of wins last season but he has been competitive in the past off this mark and, given his previous runs in the race, is of serious consideration for each-way purposes.
Probably the least experienced horse in the race is MONDAMMEJ. He only saw the race track for the first time in November but had shown steady progression until a rather lacklustre outing last time at York. Normally a keen traveller, it could be that the soft ground was against him on that occasion and, with that in mind, connections will be hoping that drying conditions prevail during Saturday. He looks to have his quirks but he should be suited by the likely strong pace here.
In addition to STONE OF DESTINY, there are two other horses who contested The Portland Handicap last September that run here. The first of those is HANS SOLO BERGER who finished well down the field off a mark 4lbs higher than he runs from here. He has won over as far as 7 furlongs but his best form is at this minimum trip and he has now slipped below his last winning mark. That last win came in the autumn when he got the better of ORNATE at Wolverhampton and he is 2lbs better off with that rival today – albeit that was on the all-weather. Stall 11 should enable jockey George Wood to have a clear view of where he wants he to go if the horse is good enough.
The other horse from The Portand is YIMOU. He finished an excellent 3rd that day and showed some good early pace before just getting out-stayed over the extended 5 furlong trip. He is 2lbs lower here and warmed up for this contest with a creditable seasonal debut at Newmarket last month when finishing 3rd. Again, he was quickly away and was, perhaps, coming to the end of his tether when a little short of room on a couple of occasions in the final stages of the race. He has run over a trip as far as a mile in the past and, although a three-time winner over 6 furlongs, his most consistent form has come since dropping back to this minimum distance. He will strip fitter for his last run and looks fairly treated from a handicap point of view. He, also, has a big pull in the weights with STONE OF DESTINY from the Doncaster meeting as well as with a couple of others in here from previous meetings and he is one to consider for a trainer who excels with his sprinters.
ROSE HIP is a mare who has a decent record on the turf and she lines up for Tony Carroll here. As mentioned already, Tom Marquand has jumped off to ride ONLY SPOOFING and he has a fantastic record of 6 wins from just 8 rides when aboard so that has to be a concern. The horse won well as recently as Monday when claiming a class 3 event at Windsor and she travelled nicely coming off a strong gallop. She has never run at Epsom but does have winning form at Goodwood and, also, Bath which is not totally unlike Epsom in running downhill towards the line.
Back in 7th at Windsor on Monday was PETTOCHSIDE and the 12 year-old is making his 2nd appearance in this race having finished 2nd in 2018 behind Tanasoq. John Bridger’s charge is another grand old campaigner with over 100 career starts and he has won 18 of those. He is 11lbs lower than three years ago but he has showed that he retains a zest for racing with two wins already this season on top of three last season. He is 6lbs higher than for the last of those wins but he has won off much higher marks in the past and he will be suited by the softer ground following Friday’s rain.
Paul Midgley has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race, including Tanasoq, and he has SON AND SANNIE entered here. Previously trained in Ireland, he has just the one all-weather win to his name since joining this yard last summer and has, so far, failed to sparkle this season.
SAAHEQ has been constantly on the go for just about a year now since joining Amanda Perrett, running 20 times in that period, and has a couple of all-weather wins to his name in that time off reduced marks in lower grades than this whilst GET BOOSTING also has to step up markedly on what he has achieved so far to take this.
This is one of the most fiendishly difficult races of the year to work out with maximum confidence and the rain that fell during Friday has only served to complicate matters further with regards to assessing what the likely ground conditions will be by the time this race goes off. I narrowed the field down to a short-list of 7 but, ultimately, have discarded RECON MISSION, YIMOU, ONLY SPOOFING and PETTOCHSIDE for varying reasons, although the latter will be my ‘shrapnel’ bet at big odds now that the rain has arrived.
It is a race where early speed usually proves to be an asset and those ‘hold up’ horses can be a hostage to fortune. For that reason, I think SUNDAY SOVEREIGN could make a bold early bid to grab the stands rail and head in a straight line towards home. He showed good early speed at York last time and, after a few early niggles, it seems that the stable have now got him on the right path. His handicap mark may under-estimate his ability and with Silvestre De Sousa choosing him over the other King Power horse and the rain in his favour it is clear to see why he has been the subject of sustained support on Friday.
On the low side of the draw, it is possible that ORNATE, with his undoubted early speed, could look to repeat the feat of two years ago and come across towards the stand side once out in the front. He is likely to be one of a few drawn that side with early pace who could all look to do the same and that could spell trouble for those ‘hold up’ types drawn in the middle. He will try to make a bold bid from the front, as that’s the only style he really knows, and it will be a case of then trying to hang on. He broke the track record here in 2019 but the ground will be nowhere near as quick this time and there is a danger that may just blunt his speed a little. That said, if he does make the break, with 7 places up for grabs, he looks a solid each-way option.
For a final pick, I’m going with BLUE DE VEGA who has placed twice in this race before. He is also drawn low but could get dragged across with the others who make the pace on that side. He is the sort who will, then, need a little luck but he is likely to finish fast and furious and is another who could nick some place money.
TIP: SUNDAY SOVEREIGN. Trackers: Ornate / Blue De Vega