Elite DC Tips - Newmarket 3.35 2000 Guineas

Newmarket 3.35: (2000 Guineas)

It is 5 weeks later than originally planned but the first Classic of the season finally takes place at Newmarket at the end of a week that has seen the welcome return of racing to the UK.

With the suspension of racing over the past two months or so there have, of course, been none of the usual early-season trials for this contest which means that we only have the 2 year-old form of the 15 contestants to go on. The absence of the trial races may not be all that significant as, in recent years at least, they have not produced winners of this race. You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last horse (Haafhd) to win both The Craven Stakes and the 2,000 Guineas whilst only the great Frankel has won The Greenham, at Newbury, en route to success here in recent times. 

Speaking of Frankel, we have a horse lining up here, in the shape of PINATUBO who actually carries a higher official rating as a 2 year-old than he did. It is very difficult to pick holes in the form of Charlie Appleby’s charge last season where he was unbeaten in 6 starts. He may turn out to be one of the modern greats if he has trained on from his juvenile year and he is certainly well worthy of his place at the head of the market. He looks to have plenty in hand over his rivals and, even if not fully wound up, is the most likely winner. There is, however, no value at all in his current odds-on price and, so, with several firms paying out on 4 places, it is worth taking a swing at a couple of bigger-priced horses who could make the frame and, if the favourite under-performs versus expectation for any reason, could even claim the main prize itself.

The most successful handler in the history of this race is Aiden O’Brien and he has 4 lined up for this year’s contest.

The shortest price of these is ARIZONA and he chased home PINATUBO in The Dewhurst at this track last October. Prior to that he had won The Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot before finishing well beaten behind PINATUBO in The National Stakes at The Curragh. He is the mount of Ryan Moore so looks to be the stable first-string.

Frankie Dettori is an interesting jockey-booking on board O’Brien’s WICHITA and this horse finished 3rd in The Dewhurst, behind PINATUBO and ARIZONA last autumn. 

WICHITA only saw a race-track for the first time in August but won 2 of his first 3 races before his 3rd place finish in the Group 1 Dewhurst. I was, actually, present at Newmarket last September when he absolutely bolted up in the Group 3 Tattersall Stakes beating the re-opposing PERSUASION by a comfortable 7 lengths. That was over 7 furlongs but he wasn’t stopping at the line and the way he handled the track is a big plus. He clearly did not enjoy the soft ground on Dewhurst day and he was, subsequently, declared a non-runner for a race in France on similar going. The ground should suit much better here and, with the possible improvement that could come at the age of 3, he looks over-priced to me.

ROYAL DORNOCH is the third Ballydoyle runner and he is one just two in here who have actually won over course-and-distance. That win came last September when he won the Group 2 Royal Lodge. He beat KAMEKO that day, staying on well, and is no back number on that form. Some of his other form is, however, a little patchy and, having raced 7 times already, he does not fit the profile of a typical Guineas winner.

The final O’Brien runner, NEW WORLD TAPESTRY, does not look up to the task based on what he has achieved so far.

The Andrew Balding-trained KAMEKO was sent off as a hot favourite for the Royal Lodge won by ROYAL DORNOCH but confirmed himself as a real contender for this race when winning the re-arranged Group 1 Vertem Futurity Stakes at Newcastle (a race won by the last 2 Guineas winners) in November. He won in commanding fashion that day but was, perhaps, better suited to the artificial surface than his rivals. That said, he proved that he stays this mile trip well and his trainer has started the new season well. He, also, has the services of the excellent Oisin Murphy and I can see him being in the shake-up for the places.

Sent off as favourite for the Futurity Stakes in November was KINROSS but he could only finish 5th that day. He was made favourite on the back of a visually impressive debut when winning here at Newmarket a month earlier. He didn’t seem suited by the surface that day and was not given a hard time once his chance had gone. He has shown a habit of dwelling a little out of the stalls in both races so far but looks to have plenty of scope for improvement.

As well as PINATUBO, Godolphin are also represented by the 1-2 from The Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over course-and-distance in October. The winner was the unbeaten MILITARY MARCH and he was definitely one on my short-list. He looks like he will need further than this in time and is currently 2nd favourite for the Epsom Derby next month. Whist this race is only over a mile, you do need a horse with enough stamina to stay further and, with a likely strong pace, that may be important once more this year.

The runner-up to MILITARY MARCH was, stable-mate to the favourite, AL SUHAIL. He did look to be out-battled by MILITARY MARCH on that day but he does look a useful colt and his jockey James Doyle has a decent record in the race having been placed on multiple occasions.

Two at big prices who I think could easily out-run their current odds are MUMS TIPPLE and KENZAI WARRIOR.

The former represents Richard Hannon who has trained top 3 finishers in 5 out of the last 7 renewals of the race and ridden by a very under-rated jockey in Sean Levey. This horse won his first two starts last term, the latter very impressively at York, but then could only finish 7th in The Middle Park here in September. He did, however, finish lame that day so there was clearly an excuse and he is clearly thought highly enough by the yard to be their only representative in this contest. He is yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, so stamina has to be a big question mark, but his unbeaten sire won the 2000 Guineas in 2005 on what was his first attempt at the trip so it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could repeat the dose.

KENZAI WARRIOR is unbeaten in two starts and is another in here with winning form at this track and course form should never be under-estimated in my humble opinion. His win here came in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes, over 7 furlongs, in heavy ground where, despite not getting the clearest of runs, his stamina looked to win the day. His debut win came at Salisbury on good ground and 6 of the 9 horses in behind him that day have subsequently won races and the collateral form of the race received a further boost on Friday when Miss Yoda won the Lingfield Oaks Trial. He is likely to be one of those racing prominently here and looks a real galloper rather than a speed horse and, given the earlier comments about the importance of stamina on this track, he could very easily make the frame at a nice price for his trainer who saddled Tip Two Win when he finished 2nd in this race, at 50/1, just two years ago.

In summary, the obvious winner of the race is PINATUBO but I very rarely back odds-on favourites, particularly ones who have not raced for 8 months facing the quickest ground they will have encountered in their lives so far, so I feel it’s worth taking a chance on two others at each-way prices.

The first is WICHITA who impressed me greatly at this track when winning in September and who looks a very straightforward conveyance and, whilst I was very tempted to put forward MILITARY MARCH also, at the prices, I think it is worth taking a chance on KENZAI WARRIOR who has a similar perfect 2/2 record. Both look to have potential stamina as their forte but the latter is twice the price of the former and if trained by a ‘bigger’ stable would surely be a lot shorter in price based on what he has achieved so far. He is a sporting each-way selection with the enhanced places on offer.