Elite - Cheltenham 3.50
By DC Tips
DAVID - Elite Service - Cheltenham 3.50 Handicap Chase - Class 2 - 3 miles 1 Furlong (Old Course)
The first big Saturday handicap chase of Cheltenham’s season is usually the opening contest on this card but this year it is being run later in the programme and has, also, attracted a slightly smaller field than has been the case in recent years. The going is currently described as 'Good' but rain is forecast for the afternoon and, with the race being later off than is normally the case, there is a risk this could change. Only 11 runners are currently set to go to post but, as ever with these competitive handicaps, a case can be made for the majority of the field.
The classiest horse in the race is, undoubtedly, FRODON who, of course, won The Ryanair Chase in 2019. This admirable 8 year-old has been a credit to his excellent trainer over the last few seasons and is, arguably, as good a jumper of a fence as there is currently in training. He has to concede lumps of weight here to the rest of the field, with his closest rival on ratings getting 17lbs, and his presence forces the bottom 4 in the field to all run from out of the handicap.
He is a horse with an excellent record over fences at Cheltenham, and proven course form is always a plus here, but all 5 of his wins have come on the New Course and this race, as all early season contests here, is being run on the Old Course. He has only run on this track twice but did finish 2nd in the big November Handicap Chase two years ago. He has done much of his running, and winning, at distances of 2 ½ miles but connections are aiming to step him up to 3 miles plus this year in the belief that, now he is older, he will be able to cope with it better. He did win over this trip when taking The Cotswold Chase here in January 2019 and he has won off this high rating in a handicap before when he was a successful tip for this service in winning the big handicap chase at the December meeting in 2018. His bold jumping from the front could put the others under pressure and, if he is fit enough first time out, he is certainly one of the more likely contenders even with his big weight.
There are several horses in here who have contested this race in the past and several of them have raced in it on more than one occasion. A serial contender in this event is COGRY. He actually won the race in 2017 before finishing 2nd a year later and, then, last year finishing 3rd. He is 3lbs higher than 12 months ago but did win at this venue last December before finishing 2nd, off 1lb higher than this, on New Years Day. It is clearly a course he goes well at and he gets on very well with Sam Twiston-Davies. In their 18-race partnership, they have won 7 times and finished placed on a further 5 occasions. Other jockeys have had just 2 wins from 25 rides so the right man is certainly in the plate today. He is another who likes to race prominently, and usually leads, but it is likely he will have his jumping severely tested here by FRODON. Although the trainer is not firing as he usually does at this time of the year, this is a meeting the yard very much looks to target so he will have been primed for this. He is sure to give his running again but I’d be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in here who can get the better of him.
Another horse who has run in this race more than once is WEST APPROACH and he finished 2nd in the contest last year, going one better than in 2018 when he was 3rd. He is 7lb higher in the ratings than last year and 4lb higher than in 2018 but is 6lb better off with COGRY than when behind that rival, by 2 lengths, in that race won by COGRY in December. He is a horse who mixes chasing with hurdling and he is usually seen contesting races in a higher class than this and his record at this level is good. His best 3 runs last season all came at this venue and he does seem to run this old course slightly better than the new course. The form of Colin Tizzard is a slight concern, however, as it seems that his runners are needing their first run of the campaign at the moment, and his record at this meeting in recent years seems to indicate that his yard does take a while to get fully up and running. This horse certainly seemed to fit that profile last year when following up his 2nd place in this race with a win next time out.
Veteran performer PERFECT CANDIDATE is another to have competed in this race twice before but he was well beaten in both the 2017 and 2018 renewals. Fergal O’Brien’s charge will turn 14 at the end of this year but, if the evidence of the last 12 months or so is anything to go by, he still retains plenty of enthusiasm for the game. He finds himself 3lbs out of the handicap here but his rider’s claim ensures that he, effectively, runs from his correct mark. The two main doubts for me are the ground, as he seems to go best in soft conditions, whilst he may, also, find this trip a bit sharp for him nowadays, especially, on good ground, and he is better over the more extreme tests. It would not surprise me to see him withdrawn if there is no prospect of any ease in the ground but, if taking his chance, this run may be a prep for something down the line at somewhere like Haydock, in deep ground, in the next month or so.
There are 3 horses who could come into this race with a bit of a fitness edge having had a run already this season. The first of those is, the current market leader, MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN who arrives here on the back of a victory at Bangor at the end of September. That was his 4th win in just 5 runs for his current yard and this lightly-raced 7 year-old has gone up 27lbs in that time. He is another having to race from out of the handicap here and this is certainly the toughest task he has had to face yet. He did well at Bangor, however, despite losing a shoe and he is at his best on a sound surface so connections will hope that the forecast rain does stay away in any volume until after the race. He is clearly well regarded by his connections but he has been doing his winning round flat tracks and, effectively up another 11lb here from his last run, does need a career best to win this.
Another to have had the benefit of an outing this season is VIVAS. He finished 2nd at Warwick last month on his favoured quick surface but this is a tougher race and he is 8lbs out of the handicap. His claiming jockey does negate 7lbs of this but he was well beaten on his only other start over fences here when running in The Ultima at The Festival in March.
Also in that Ultima Handicap and another with the benefit of a race this season is COBRA DE MAI who is one of two representatives in this race for Dan Skelton. On the face of it, his seasonal debut was disappointing as he could only finish 7th, beaten a distance, at Fontwell but he has often needed his first run of the campaign and would not have enjoyed the very soft ground that prevailed that day. He also went without his usual cheekpieces that day and they return here as he looks to follow up what was a very good run in The Ultima in the circumstances. The ground was very soft, also, that day and the way he finished the race caught my eye as he was one of only a couple who had been held up to get anywhere near at the death. He is 2lbs lower here and 13lbs lower than 12 months ago when he was set to carry top-weight in this race before being withdrawn on account of the very deep ground that day. His mark of 140 means he only has to carry 10st 2lbs and is also 2lbs below his last winning mark which came on the new course here in April 2019. The ground was good that day and he scooted home by 13 lengths and conditions look in his favour once more here, having spent all of the last 12 months running on ground softer than ideal. His trainer stated earlier in the week that he feels the horse is now back on a realistic mark, brother Harry rides for the in-form yard and, if the rain stays away, I see him running a big race here.
Skelton’s other horse is CAPTAIN CHAOS and he is ridden by Harry’s wife, Bridget Andrews. In contrast to his stable-mate this horse is at his best when the mud is flying so he would welcome significant rain. He was pulled up in this race last year and, after also being pulled up in The Welsh National, he ran two excellent races when, firstly, finishing 2nd in Warwick’s Classic Chase, when a selection of this service, and then winning The Grimthorpe at Doncaster when also a pick of SP2A. He has gone up 8lbs for that win and may now find life tough off this mark.
Another horse who pulled up in the attritional conditions of last year’s race was BOB MAHLER. He is a horse who finished last season on the upgrade but he has always needed his first run of the campaign in the past and may improve for this run here. After pulling up here last year, he enjoyed a very consistent season, placing 3 times (including in The Kim Muir) and winning The Edinburgh National at Musselburgh over 4 miles plus. He is a horse who has always seemed to improve as the season goes on , with all of his wins coming after Christmas, and he may be seen to better effect over slightly further (especially on good ground) so there will probably be other days targeted but you have to start the season somewhere.
Further back in the field (in 8th) in The Kim Muir was CLOTH CAP and he also returns for the first time since here. That was the only chase in which he has finished outside of the first 4 and he would not have been suited by the soft ground that day. He is another in here who would definitely not want the forecast rain to come prior to the race and he gets his favoured good ground for the first time since running an excellent race to finish 3rd in the 2019 Scottish National. He is only 4lbs higher here, although is 2lbs out of the handicap, and Richie McLernon, who has built a good relationship with the horse, is back in the saddle. The yard’s horses are currently running well, with 5 winners in the last fortnight plus another 9 placed, and this horse is definitely one for the short-list although history would suggest he is another who may need this first outing of the season.
SENSULANO is the final runner in the field and this 7 year-old mare has only had 4 runs over fences. She has won 2 of those and finished 2nd on another occasion and did win at this venue over hurdles (although again that was on the New Course). She is another who would welcome any rain and is unproven over this distance.
Assuming the rain stays off long enough to not impact the ground, I think that COBRA DE MAI has to be the main selection for this race as conditions do look set to be in his favour and he has come down below his last winning mark. The current excellent form of his trainer is the added bonus.
In a race of this nature, however, I want some insurance and, despite the big weight he has to carry, FRODON may have the class to see off his rivals if fit enough to go first time out. His main asset is his jumping and, although he may not get an easy time of it up front, he does look a solid each-way bet. It may be worth throwing in COGRY for a small tri-cast perm, given his liking for this course and his ability to run well fresh, and he would rate as the reserve pick should either of the main selections not line up for any reason.
TIP - Cobra De Mai / TRACKER - Frodon (Tricast Perm - Cogry)