Doncaster 4.35
By DC Tips
Doncaster 4.35
With the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon being moved from its traditional Saturday slot on this weekend to Sunday, we are, once again, left with a paucity of higher-class big field handicaps this week.
There is, however, what looks like a competitive class 3 event at Doncaster, run over 5 furlongs, so we will have a bash at solving that particular puzzle.
This race has been won in the past two seasons by ORVAR and he appears again this year looking for the hat-trick. Trainers are often creatures of habit and they will target races in which they have been successful before and it would be no surprise if this contest has been the main target for this horse again this year.
Having had wind surgery over the winter, he returned to action at this track, in June, with a very good 3rd place finish in a class 2 contest, just over a length behind Lahore. That race has been well advertised by several horses who finished behind ORVAR that day whilst the winner has since claimed a good handicap at York and is now rated 104.
His last two runs have been a little disappointing (including in that handicap at York behind Lahore) but he has been dropped 3lbs and a return to this track should suit.
The mark of 87 he now finds himself on is a career-low and the only other 2 occasions he has raced off this mark he has won – once at Kempton in 2017 and the second time being in this race last year. The ground was soft last year but he is quite versatile with regards to ground and it was quick ground when he won the race two years ago.
The weights are headed by, the current favourite for the race, JONAH JONES. This 4 year-old has only raced over this minimum distance twice in his career but steps back to it here after a poor run over 6 furlongs last time out at York. Prior to that, he had run very well when placing 3rd , at Ascot, over this trip where he finished ahead of the aforementioned Lahore and several other horses who have since won. He was heavily supported in the market last time at York so connections will be hoping they can draw a line through that run and make amends here. His first run of the season came at Haydock where he also finished 3rd but he is worse off at the weights with both TATHMEEN and NORTH WIND who were just behind that day and re-oppose here.
NORTH WIND started his racing life in the care of Aiden O’Brien and was owned by messrs Tabor, Smith and Magnier. He only won once for them and, after a spell with Damien English last year, joined David Barron in February. He is another who is dropping back in trip after two recent unsuccessful attempts at a furlong further. Last time out, in The Stewards Cup consolation race at Goodwood, he didn’t get the best of runs and prior to that at York he seemed to just run out of gas in the final stages. A strongly-run 5 furlongs is probably what he needs to be at his optimum. His last run at 5 furlongs was a very good one and it came at this venue when he chased home the ill-fated National Anthem. He has been dropped 3lbs subsequently and a repeat of that run here could see him go close for a trainer who does well with his sprinters. He is 5lbs better off with JONAH JONES from Haydock, having finished less than a length behind him that day.
TATHMEEN finished one place ahead of NORTH WIND at Haydock and he is 2lbs better off with JONAH JONES from Haydock. He is a horse, however, who has shown most of his decent form on the all-weather and in lower class contests than this so he may not be too well treated here.
Iain Jardine has had his string in decent fettle in the last few weeks and he runs LOMU here. The horse switched to this yard last November and made a good start for his new stable by winning a couple of handicaps on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. He’s not proved quite as effective since but is now coming back down the handicap as a result and is now just 1lb above his last winning mark. He paid the price for a tardy start last time out at Musselburgh, found himself trapped wider than ideal, and could only finish 5th and Paul Mulrennan takes over from an apprentice here.
A horse that finished 3 places ahead of LOMU at Musselburgh was the admirable veteran DUKE OF FIRENZE. Now an 11 year-old, this will be his 85th career start and that run up in Scotland shows that he retains plenty of enthusiasm for the game. His latest run was as recent as last Sunday, at Thirsk, where his chance was gone very early on after missing the break. He made some headway after that and kept on reasonably well in the closing stages. His trainer has done well with other veteran sprinters in the past and will be keen to keep running the horse whilst he remains in decent heart. He is better off at the weights with LOMU for that Musselburgh run and, having once been rated as high as 109, his mark of 83 means that he is still 2lbs below his last winning mark – a win which came last May when he claimed a big class 2 handicap at York. The form of the Musselburgh race was given a big boost on Friday when the horse who finished ahead of DUKE OF FIRENZE won again at Chester off a 4lb higher mark. Considering he is based fairly local to this track, the trainer’s form is a negative as he has only ever had 1 winner here from 108 attempts so that is a negative for those who follow stats and trends.
Another veteran running here is 10 year-old LINE OF REASON and he is trainer Paul Midgley’s second representative in the race. As well as training ORVAR to success the last two seasons, he also trained the winner in 2017 so he is going for a four-timer as a trainer. This will be the horse’s 103rd run of his career and he won on his 99th outing, just two months ago, when successful at Newmarket in a class 4 contest. He is only 2lbs higher here and ran well at Beverley earlier this week when finishing 2nd behind a course specialist, running on well from an unfavourable draw. He is clearly in good heart and has won off a mark as high as 106 in the past (runs off 80 here) but it is worth noting that Danny Tudhope, who rode him on Wednesday, would appear to prefer stable-mate ORVAR.
At the other end of the age scale to DUKE OF FIRENZE and LINE OF REASON is the only 3 year-old in the race, TRIPLE SPEAR. He has a better record on the all-weather than on turf but did win at Haydock on reappearance in June. That was in a class 4 contest for 3 year-olds and this is his first step out to face horses outside his own age group and he, therefore, gets a 3lb allowance. The jockey has a perfect 1/1 record aboard the horse but winning this would be a big step up on anything he has achieved up to yet.
FAIRY STORIES runs here for Richard Fahey having only made her seasonal debut just over a week ago. She is a 4 year-old and made massive strides last season, and won on 4 occasions, but all those wins came on easier ground that she is likely to encounter here and she is now paying the price for those successes with her handicap mark.
Two other 4 year-olds worthy of a mention are TEXTING and THEGREATESTSHOWMAN. The former has been rather progressive and has a good record on turf. In 10 career starts to date she has won 4 and finished 2nd three times, finishing outside the top 4 only twice. The first of those came in soft ground last autumn whilst the second was on seasonal reappearance this year. Her standout piece of form probably came last September, at Ascot, when getting the better of a decent field in a class contest at Ascot. She has had a tendency to race a bit too freely in the past but last time out she wore a tongue-tie for the first time and they fitted a hood for her trip down to the start which seemed to settle her better. She duly won at Yarmouth with THE GREATESTSHOWMAN one of those in behind her. Key to this horse are ground conditions with all 4 of her wins coming on Good To Firm ground so, if the forecast is correct and no rain arrives, the prevailing ground conditions should be perfect for her. She is very much one for the short list.
THEGREATESTSHOWMAN finished just a neck behind TEXTING at Yarmouth, in 3rd, and had previously finished 4th behind the same horse in the Ascot contest last September. He is 2lbs better off here compared to the Yarmouth run and 7lbs better than at Ascot. Having been held up early on, at Yarmouth, he didn’t get the clearest passage and had to be switched to make his run, which cost valuable ground, and he was flying home late on. The 2lb pull may be enough to reverse the placings with TEXTING but the filly always looked to only be just doing enough to my eyes so it is certainly not cut and dried that the form will be reversed. The trainer’s horses are running well, however, and she enjoyed another winner at Pontefract on Friday afternoon. The horse still holds an entry for Sunday’s Great St Wilfrid at Ripon.
The likely early pace in the race could well come from 3 horses who are all drawn in central stalls. They are YIMOU, TRICKY DICKY and MACHREE.
The former is another who thrives on fast going, and has been in decent form so far this season, but he is now on a career-high mark and it looks a big ask for him to win here. TRICKY DICKY was in good form last season but has found life tougher this campaign, albeit running on softer ground than ideal perhaps, and most of his good form has come over 6 furlongs.
MACHREE had a largely disappointing campaign last year, having found himself a little too high in the handicap perhaps, but won last time out when making all at Thirsk last month. He has gone up 4lbs for that win and has only once defied a mark this high in the past and, on that occasions, he had the help of his jockey’s 7lb claim. He is versatile in terms of ground but could only finish 8th in this race two years ago off a similar mark to here.
It’s easy to make a good case for the majority of runners in this race but it would not be a surprise to see Paul Midgley take the prize for a fourth year in a row and the horse who looks most capable of doing that for him is ORVAR who will, of course, bring up his own hat-trick in the race. This has probably been the season’s plan once more and the way he has been campaigned means he turns up here on exactly the same mark as last year and with decent form in the book from his last run at this venue.
TEXTING was very tempting to me but the drop back to 5 furlongs looks the right move for NORTH WIND and he, too, has good recent form at the track. A strong pace here could be just what he wants.
For a half-stakes ‘tracker’ selection, I can’t resist having a poke at the old campaigner DUKE OF FIRENZE. The form of his recent 2nd place finish at Musselburgh has been franked and he, too, ran a solid race here on his last visit at the start of last month. At the age of 11, he is certainly not the force he once was but he looks to retain enough of his old zest to make him a sporting each-way play here and it would be great to see him get his old head in front one more time at least.