Cesarewitch - Newmarket 3.35
By DC Tips
NEWMARKET 3.35 CESAREWITCH - 2 miles 2 furlongs - Gong Soft - 34 run!
The Cesarewitch is the second half of the ‘Autumn Double’ run at Newmarket and is one of the most popular betting races of the season. It has the unique feature of starting in one county (Cambridgeshire) and finishing in another (Suffolk).
Being over a distance of 2miles 2 furlongs, it would be easy to assume that the draw would make very little difference but, with 34 horses, spread across the track, those drawn highest (widest) have a decision to make. There is only one right-hand turn and it is important to have a decent position coming out of that turn and into the final mile of the race. Those drawn widest have to decide whether to use up energy early in a bid to get a good position nearer the far rail or tuck in and take their chance in the run for home. It’s not impossible to win from a very high draw but, obviously, it does make life a little more difficult and the trends in recent years do point to a stall position in the lower half of the draw being favoured.
With a race over this distance, it is no surprise that many NH trainers target this race and they have a good record in the last decade or so. Once again, this year, we see NH trainers having a dart at taking the prize away from their Flat counterparts.
The ground is currently described as soft and, although we have a largely dry forecast for the period up to and including the race, there is a chance of the odd heavy shower so it should not be too much different than that. Indeed, it may even get a little ‘tacky’ if the rain doesn't arrive which could make this even more of a test.
The last two renewals have been won by horses trained by Willie Mullins and, indeed, he had the 1-2 in 2018. This year, he sends over GREAT WHITE SHARK and he, again, calls upon the services of Jason Watson who rode the winner for the stable 12 months ago. This 6 year-old, grey, mare has mixed her racing time equally between the flat and over hurdles and, whilst she has probably been more successful over obstacles, she has still won 3 times on the level from 11 starts. She ran in this race last year but could finish no better than 10th when well supported in the market. She has had a similar preparation this year to last, running twice at the Galway Festival, on the flat and then over hurdles, but, unlike last year, when she also had a hurdles run in September, has been kept fresh for this ever since. It could be that connections feel she left her race behind in the mud of that Galway hurdle last year and want to avoid a repeat this time and she actually arrives off a 3lb lower mark. Not a lot went right last year, however, it must be said, and she even unshipped her jockey on the way to the start. Assuming better fortune this year, she does look to be a live danger and will not mind what the ground conditions are like. She did have an entry in the Irish Cesarewitch on Sunday but, with Mullins having other options in that race, she takes her chance here and is his only representative.
There are a total of eight Irish raiders set to line up in this year’s contest and no fewer than four of those are trained by Gavin Cromwell.
The first of these is JUKEBOX JIVE who only moved across the sea to this yard this time last year, having previously been in the care of Jamie Osborne and, before that, Anthony Honeyball. He won 4 times, in all, for the latter and, after failing to win when at Osborne’s, he won first time out for his present trainer last November in heavy ground at Naas. He had 3 of today’s opponents, plus last year’s Cesarewitch winner, in behind him that day. He is 8lbs higher in the handicap here, however, and that win came over 1mile 6f. He has not been seen on the track since disappointing over hurdles last December and, whilst not without a chance, I prefer the chances of another Cromwell runner at a bigger price.
WHIRLING DERVISH is another who only joined this yard less than a year ago, having previously been with Jessie Harrington, and this will be his first start on the flat for current connections. While in the care of his former trainer, this 5 year-old ran some very good races on the flat and showed a liking for soft or heavy ground. His last win came off a mark 6lbs higher than he runs from here and he also finished 2nd to last year’s Ebor winner in a listed contest. He has a low draw here, which should help judged on recent stats for the race, but does have a question mark over his stamina given that he has never won over further than 1m 6f on the flat. If staying the trip, however, he could out-run his big odds and is one on my short-list.
Another Irish-trained horse of considerable interest is DALTON HIGHWAY who represents Dermot Weld. You could say that this 7 year-old is rather exposed, having run 34 times already in his career, but he does have a fair bit of experience of running in these big-field handicaps. He is a horse that is usually ridden held up towards the rear so his high stall should not be too big an inconvenience as the jockey would be looking to drop him anyway. He needs a strong pace, however, and with very few obvious front-runners in the line-up, he may not necessarily get that despite the large field size. The jockey booking catches the eye, and his trainer doesn’t cross the Irish Sea with his horses just for a nice day out, but he has a bit to find at the weights compared to some of his Irish-trained rivals.
The current favourite for the race, at the time of writing is COLTRANE, and this 3 year-old is trained by Andrew Balding. He didn’t race at all as a 2 year-old and only appeared on a racetrack for the first time back in June. He arrives here on the back of a hat-trick, having won The Melrose at York’s Ebor meeting when he probably the most impressive of the week, but has been hit by an 11lb rise in the weights. He has not raced over this far yet but did finish very strongly at York and has improved for stepping up in distance so far. Whether he wants a real test of this nature in soft ground remains to be seen whilst he also has a high draw to contend with. The significant weight-for-age allowance is clearly a big help in this race although only one 3 year-old has won the race this century.
Also prominent in the betting is LEONCAVALLO who runs here for David Pipe. Whilst jumps trainers have a good record in this race, Pipe is actually yet to have a winner from 16 attempts. Originally with Charlie Appleby, when owned by Godolphin, he was then a promising novice hurdler for John Ferguson before changing hands a few more times prior to joining the Pipe outfit in February. Immediately given wind surgery he has run 3 very good races for the yard, twice on the flat and once in a novice chase, and looks to have been saved for this since winning nicely at Haydock in August. He went up 8lbs for that win, subsequently, but is still 1lb ‘well-in’ here and, when compared to his mark over hurdles, he looks very well-handicapped. It is clear, therefore, to see why he is so popular in the market but he is another with a less than ideal high draw and soft ground may not suit.
Another who looks to have been clearly laid out for this is NOT SO SLEEPY. This dual-purpose performer has had just the one run, when winning at Pontefract last month, since running in The Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Last year, Hughie Morrison’s 8 year-old finished 4th in this race off a 4lb lower mark but is 2lb ‘well-in’ here having gone up 6lbs in the handicap for his Pontefract success. He ran a very good race last year, from a similar low draw, but tended to race a bit freely and possibly used up too much energy as a result and gave the impression he didn’t quite get home having hit the front half a mile from home. The distance does remain a question mark but, if able to settle better here, he should have an improved chance of getting the trip compared to last year. He will, certainly, have no issue with the ground as 3 of his 4 wins on the flat have come in soft ground.
Finishing one place ahead of NOT SO SLEEPY last year, in 3rd, was this years top-weight SUMMER MOON. That was his first attempt at a trip at 2 miles plus and his subsequent placing in this year’s Ascot Stakes, at The Royal meeting, and his win in a big handicap at York in August show that he is certainly not short of the stamina required for this test. He is 9lbs higher this year however, so faces a stiff task, and, although the ground was soft last year, he has done most of his racing on a sound surface.
Further back in the field last year was COUER DE LION. He seems to relish it when the ground turns testing on the flat and his run twelve months ago is his only real ‘flop’ in such conditions. His only win on good ground came in this year’s aforementioned Ascot Stakes where he was given an excellent ride by today’s jockey Thore Hammer Hansen. He is only 3lbs higher here and, at the weights, should again get the better of SUMMER MOON, DIOCLETIAN and SMART CHAMPION who all re-oppose here. This will be his 4th outing in this race and he finished 2nd in the 2017 renewal. If this does become a real test in deep ground then he is one of the more likely ones to go well at a decent each-way price.
A trainer in excellent form at present is Ralph Beckett and he runs FUTURE INVESTMENT here. He has some good form in the book and showed good form two runs ago when stepping up in trip to 2 miles for the first time and winning at Chester. He, then, ran in The Old Borough Cup at Haydock and, again, ran with credit to finish 6th. He possibly got to the front too soon after chasing a strong early pace and was outpaced in the final stages by a few who had been ridden more patiently. That included DIOCLETIAN, who finished 3rd, and the eventual winner, Euchen Glen, who franked the form with a big win yesterday at York.
Another runner for Beckett is ROCK EAGLE. He is fairly lightly-raced for a 5 year-old and, therefore, it could argued, still a little unexposed. He has finished in the first three in 6 of his 8 races but, whilst he has won on this track, he has never won over further than 1 ½ miles so has his stamina to prove.
In addition to the top-weight, Mark Johnston also runs MONDAIN in here as he hopes to build on his 2 victories as a trainer in this race. This horse is, officially at least, the best-handicapped horse in the race with his 4lb penalty for winning last time, at Ayr, leaving him 3lbs well-in. His run at Ayr saw him get the better of Fun Mac over a trip only just shy of this today. That win took his record at 2miles or further to 3 wins and a 2nd from just 4 starts so stamina seems to be his forte. He has run a couple of poor races this term but that does seem to go with the territory with this trainer’s horses but, otherwise, he has looked to be a stayer on the up. His jockey has a decent record in this race but the one tiny worry I would have with the horse is a lack of experience in big-field handicaps like this.
JUST HUBERT is well suited to a test of stamina and he won the Goodwood Stakes this summer over 2 ½ miles. Whilst, therefore, this trip shouldn’t be an issue, there is more of a concern about the ground as he is unproven in soft conditions. His draw in stall 17 should be fine however.
At a big price I did look long and hard at VIS A VIS. Formerly trained in France, this 6 year-old has only run 5 times on the flat for his current connections since moving here in February 2018. One of those was in this contest two years ago when he finished 4th off a mark 7lbs higher than he is off here. After two runs over hurdles in early 2019, he then missed the rest of last year and only appeared again this summer, finishing down the field in both of his outings. He’s probably been plotted for this, looking at the owners, and the booking of a 3lb claimer will help but his draw does not look to be ideal and, whilst he has run well on soft in France, he may not want it too testing here. His current price does, however, factor these aspects in.
Quite obviously, this is a wide open race and cases can be made for many in the field. Of those who are currently prominent in the betting, NOT SO SLEEPY is perhaps the most solid proposition given how well ran in this contest last year. He has been campaigned lightly this year, with this as the target, and, if Graham Lee can get him to settle as he did last time at Pontefract, he could run another big race here and looks a solid each-way proposition with the enhanced places on offer.
MONDAIN looks to be a stayer who is progressing and this test looks like it could really suit him. The way he galloped the opposition into submission last time at Ayr suggests he is on a decent mark here and, providing his lack of big-field experience doesn’t count against him too much, he should run well again here.
At bigger prices, I think it is worth a couple of ‘tracker’ bets. First, THE WHIRLING DERVISH who boasts some strong flat form from his days with Jessie Harrington and has had his mark protected for this by running over hurdles all this season for his new yard.
A second horse worthy of a ‘tracker’ selection is FUTURE INVESTMENT. He represents a yard in form and finished strongly when winning at Chester when first tried over 2 miles and, if ridden a little more conservatively than at Haydock last time, could run into one of the places on offer at decent odds.
TIPS - Not So Sleepy + Mondain / TRACKERS - The Whirling Dervish / Future Investment