Ayr 3.40
By DC Tips
Elite Service - 3.40 Ayr Gold Cup - 6 furlongs - Going Good to Soft - 24 run (1 n/r)
This is Ayr’s big flat race of the season and, alongside The Wokingham at Royal Ascot and The Stewards Cup at Goodwood, is always one of the most competitive sprint handicaps in the racing calendar. A field of 24 runners are set to go to post and, although often run in soft ground in the past, they look likely to contest it in drying conditions this year.
The weights are headed by GULLIVER who is one of four in the race for David O’Meara. He is a bit of a veteran in these big-field sprint handicaps and finished 3rd in this contest last year in what was his only visit to the track. He has raced mostly over this 6 furlong trip but does have winning form over further. He is best suited to a stiff 6 furlongs, such as this, so it will be no surprise to see him run much better than he did in The Stewards Cup, over Goodwood’s sharp track, but he has only won on turf 3 times and all of those wins have come at York. He is 7lbs higher than his mark for last year and faces a tough task here.
ARECIBO is another who lines up here for O’Meara and, yet again, ran another creditable race last week in The Portland without looking like winning. Connections try yet another change of headgear here in a search for the key to victory. He is 6lbs lower than when finishing 8th in this contest last year but this stiff 6 furlongs has never looked like it would be his ideal trip and he could well flatter to deceive again.
The other two O’Meara representatives, YOUNG FIRE and COLD STARE would probably have wanted lots of rain to fall this week, as both are usually seen at their best in soft ground and, whilst this is the former’s first attempt at a trip this short, the latter finished well down the field in this race last year – albeit of 7lbs higher.
The main regular rider for the O’Meara stable, Danny Tudhope, does not take any of the above mounts in this race (despite having a contractual tie with the owners of Arecibo) and, instead he rides WISE COUNSEL for Clive Cox. He is the retained jockey for Clipper Logistics (who own the horse), so it may not be that significant, but he was on board the horse when he won at this meeting 12 months ago. He got the better of a real course specialist that day and took the record of the partnership to 2 wins and 2 third place finishes from 4 races. He was gelded over the winter and returned this season with a creditable 3rd place finish at Goodwood. He was off the track for some time after that and, therefore, may have just needed his recent return run at Ascot. He has winning form over 7 furlongs, which I think is a positive here, but he does seem better suited by this trip. The ground conditions should be about perfect for him and Clive Cox does know what it takes to win this race, having claimed it in 2009. He can be a bit quirky and has been known to swish his tail on occasion and hang a little in the closing stages of a race. Connections apply cheekpieces for the first time here in a bid to help him concentrate on the job in hand.
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a very good record in this race, having trained the winner on 4 occasions, and he has 3 runners set to line up this year. The first is HEY JONESY who, after having some excellent form as a 2 year-old, had flattered to deceive until finally claiming his first win since his juvenile days in The Wokingham at Royal Ascot when making all. He may have found everything happening a little too quickly for him, on fast ground at Goodwood, last time in The Stewards Cup and should be better suited by this track. He ran in the race last year, when quite well supported in the market, but lost a shoe in running as he finished well down the field.
HEY JONESY is one of those we are likely to see racing prominently in the early stages of the race whilst MAJOR JUMBO, who is also trained by Kevin Ryan, is another. He is a likeable sort, who has run some good races over the past two years or so, but has finished well down the field on his previous attempts in this race and is 5lbs ‘wrong’ here compared to his latest mark. The booking of Megan Nicholls negates 3lbs of this, due to her claim, and this is a step down in grade compared to his other runs this season, but he does face a stiff task here.
Ryan’s third entry, BIELSA, has been disappointing so far this summer and was given a wind operation in July. Prior to this season, he was very highly-thought of and won 4 of his 5 outings last season. The one blip came when sent off favourite for The Portland Handicap and he was also sent off a warm order in this year’s Wokingham when finishing well down the field. He is still lightly raced and could bounce back to form here under a rider who linked up with this trainer to win the 2016 renewal of the race.
If BIELSA is arriving here out of form, the same cannot be said about either MR LUPTON or STONE OF DESTINY. The former comes here just 6 days after winning on Irish Champions Weekend at The Curragh. He had hinted that his time in the winner’s enclosure was near when running an excellent race to finish 3rd in The Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last month and it was no major surprise to see him justify favouritism last Sunday. He comes here with a 5lb penalty for that win but this is being negated by the claim of his jockey. He is a former Group 2 winner, so has a touch of class, and connections have admitted that this was always Plan A for the horse, with last week being merely a nice bonus opportunity they couldn’t resist. He was well beaten in both The Wokingham and The Stewards Cup, however, and also on his only other previous visit to this track when running in this race last year.
STONE OF DESTINY claimed a valuable success last Saturday when taking The Portland in good style and is another having to shoulder a 5lb penalty. That still, however, leaves him 1lb ‘well-in’ compared to his revised mark so, like all in-form sprinters, he has to be taken seriously. Drawn high, he may be able to track some strong early pace from the likes of BUNGEE JUMP, AIR RAID and BIELSA, which may suit him, and Oisin Murphy is back in the saddle as the horse aims to become the first horse to do the Portland/Ayr Gold Cup double since Lochsong in 1992 who, as fate would have it, was trained by, Andrew Balding’s father, Ian Balding.
A couple of other horses re-appear here quite quickly after their run in The Portland last week and they are BARBILL and SOLDIERS MINUTE.
BARBILL fared the best of the pair last Saturday finishing in 6th and beaten just over 4 lengths by the winner. He was hampered very early on in the race and was always playing ‘catch up’ after that but kept on well in the final stages of the race and this slightly longer trip should suit better. Prior to that he had won at Chester whilst he was also successful on seasonal debut at Haydock. In between those wins he probably found the ground much too lively in The Stewards Cup. The conditions will be much more to his liking here and the form of his Haydock win could not have worked out any better. The 3rd and 4th horses home have since won twice each and the 5th home has also won whilst the runner-up ran extremely well when finishing 2nd in The Stewards Cup. Carrying a 5lb penalty for his Chester win, he is another who is 2lbs ‘wrong’ here and it will take a career-best to win but his form has looked much better since being gelded last autumn and Franny Norton takes over in the saddle once more having been aboard for the Chester win.
SOLDIERS MINUTE just may well have had this race as the long-term target all season having finished 7th in the contest last year. He has been a solid handicapper over the past few years but still has only 2 wins on turf to his name. He was possibly given too much to do in this race last year but finished just 2 lengths off the winner and is only 2lbs higher here. He never really threatened in The Portland last week but that trip is probably a little too sharp for him and he is another in here with form over further than this trip. In an interesting move, connections remove the hood that he has worn in every race since donning it for the first time in this event last year.
Another horse who only raced a week ago is ANOTHER BATT. He ran at Leopardstown and finished well down the field in a 7 furlong handicap but prior to that he had won over this trip at Thirsk on debut for this yard. Previously in the part-ownership of footballer Charlie Austin, this 5 year-old has raced mainly over further trips than this but his record over 6 furlongs is good. In 9 starts at the trip, so far, he has won 3 times and finished placed twice. His new trainer, David Barron, is well known for his prowess with sprinters and he wasted no time in getting this horse over 6 furlongs once he had him in his care and it could be that this race was always the ultimate aim. He has been raised by 5lbs since that Thirsk win but gets to run off a mark only 3lbs higher so is 2lbs ‘well in’ and has won off a much higher rating in the past. He won on his only visit here, albeit 3 years ago, and is one for the short-list.
Two other horses who regularly turn up in these big field handicaps are STAXTON and SPANISH CITY. The former comes here chasing a hat-trick after a brace of wins at Ripon last month. The second of those was in the Great St Wilfrid and the penalty he got for winning that was enough to see him sneak into this race towards the bottom of the handicap. He had become very well-handicapped prior to his two wins, so it was no surprise to see him return to form at a track he runs well at, and, although he runs off a 6lb higher mark here than last time, he has won off higher marks than this in the past so is entitled to be in the mix. In addition to this, the form of the Great St Wilfrid is working out well with multiple winners already emerging from those who finished behind. The trainer could certainly not be in any better form but the one big negative is that the horse has contested the last two runnings of this race and has been well beaten on both occasions.
SPANISH CITY has threatened to win a race like this on several occasions in the past and he has often run with great credit. This season he finished 3rd in The Wokingham, off this mark, but has the assistance of his very good jockey’s 5lb claim here to help. A strongly-run 6 furlongs is what he needs to be seen at his best and he should get that here. He does, however, like fast ground and, although the ground is drying, conditions may not be quite quick enough for him here.
Another horse who looks to prefer a sounder surface is NAHAARR. He looks a genuine contender if the track continues to dry and was sent off a very short favourite for The Stewards Cup at the start of last month. The track didn’t seem to suit him that day and he was running just 13 days after his previous outing so that may have been a factor also in why he finished out of the frame. William Haggas is not really renowned for sprint handicappers or for tilting at unrealistic targets so the fact that they send this highly-promising 4 year-old on the long journey has to be respected. The horse has looked a very smart prospect and, until Goodwood, had never finished out of the first 4 in any of his 8 career starts (winning 5 of them). He runs off a 1lb lower mark than he did at Goodwood and he is weighted to confirm form with all 6 of the horses who finished behind him that day who re-oppose here. He is another proven over 7 furlongs and, if coping with possibly the slowest ground he has run on to date, he is a big danger to all.
The Bronze Cup on Friday pointed to the possibility of a high draw being favourable and, whilst races like this often sees the field splitting into two or even three groups, the jockeys all seemed to favour coming over to the stands side of the track. If that happens here, the ability to bag a handy position on the rail may be important and a horse who could well end up doing that is one of the outsiders in the field BUNGEE JUMP. The horse won on his first start of the season at Newmarket before running well when finishing 2nd in a listed contest at Goodwood (ahead of WISE COUNSEL). He is now 8lbs higher and has run less well since, albeit on ground slower than ideal, so faces a tough task here but I could easily see him running a bold race from the front against the rail and may risk a little loose change at the big odds available in the hope that he can hang on to one of the extended places.
In summary, in one of the toughest punting races in the calendar, I eventually narrowed my final short-list to 6 horses. Of those, I have had to discard SOLDIERS MINUTE and, more reluctantly, BIELSA who, despite not showing much form so far this season, may have been managed with this target race in mind and clearly possesses a fair amount of ability and potential.
This leaves me with 2 main tips as ANOTHER BATT who remains well-handicapped on old form, has won on his sole visit to this track and has a good record over this trip and NAHAARR who should be more suited to this track than he was Goodwood and is better judged on his previous winning outing at Newbury. Like ANOTHER BATT, he, too, has form over further which is an added plus here.
WISE COUNSEL is another with 7 furlong form who looks to have been targeted at this and, also, won his only start here. The addition of first-time cheekpieces should hopefully help him concentrate more than he has done on occasions in the past whilst, at bigger odds, I think it’s worth a play on BARBILL. After a very good 2 year-old season, he lost his way last year but, since being gelded over the winter, he has shown improved form this term with 2 wins from 4 runs and excuses in the other 2 events and, with the ground set to suit, this test looks ideal for him to produce a big run.