Ascot 4.10 Britannia

Thursday is a day for the 3 year-olds when it comes to the handicaps and the 4.10 race sees The Britannia Stakes run over the straight mile.

There is plenty of rain in the forecast for much of the day which, if getting into the ground by the time this race starts, may put a premium on an ability to see out the trip.

The first two days have seen a draw bias on the straight course in favour of high numbers and that has, also, been the pattern in recent renewals of this race. Whether that will continue here, on possible softer ground, remains to be seen but, as things stand, logic would dictate that those drawn middle-high have an advantage.

There is a maximum field of 24 set to go to post here and 99% of the time I am eager to take on the favourite in such contests. The betting is headed here by FINEST SOUND and the case for him looks obvious. He ran some promising races last year, in his juvenile season, and recorded a trio of 3rd place finishes. The first of those was behind Palace Pier, where he wasn't beaten far despite running a little ‘green’, and that horse is well fancied for a Group 1 contest here on Saturday. He also finished 3rd behind Kinross in October who has since come out and ran a perfectly respectable race to finish 6th in the 2000 Guineas.

Following a gelding operation and wind surgery over the winter, he returned in impressive style when winning a handicap at Haydock last week. He gets a 5lb penalty here for that win but he has been raised 12lbs by the handicapper and, so, is still 7lbs well-in here. Although now jointly-named on the licence with his son, Simon Crisford won this race two years ago and, therefore, knows what it takes here. He has a decent draw in stall 17 and, having been heavily supported in the market during Wednesday, is worthy of a ‘win saver’ recommendation here.

One trainer who has been going great guns since the resumption of racing is John Gosden and he fires 4 bullets at this race. The one the market likes best, currently, is ENEMY. He is one of three horses in here who have only raced twice so far in the careers and was beaten at odds-on two weeks ago on his seasonal reappearance at Yarmouth. That was over 7 furlongs and his jockey, Oisin Murphy, said straight away that he needs to step up to this trip and that may be the case. He should strip fitter for his reappearance and is well drawn too.

VERBOTEN contested the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at the back end of last season, finishing 7th behind 2000 Guineas’ hero Kameko, but could only manage 4th place when sent off favourite on his reappearance, over 7 furlongs, at Lingfield 13 days ago. To be fair to him, he was posted out wide that day for much of the race and he came home strongly to suggest that he needs this extra furlong. Frankie Dettori takes the ride for Godolphin and he is another drawn high. He gets a pull in the weights here with 2 of the 3 horses that finished ahead of him at Lingfield so should reverse the form with those.

The other Gosden horses are both trading at much bigger odds and, whilst CHEROKEE TRAIL started his career off in promising fashion for his high-profile owners, he does have a few questions to answer now following several below-par efforts. Ryan Moore will, also, have to produce an excellent ride if he is to get him to win from stall 2.

ESHAASY shows up here having been gelded over the winter and he was thought good enough last season to contest the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. He is well bred and has a good-looking draw but he does have to show improvement to take this.

The race that VERBOTEN contested last time at Lingfield could be a key piece of form here as the first 4 horses home all meet again. The race was won by ZIGGLE POPS for Richard Hannon and owners more associated, in the past, with jumpers. That win on the all-weather was a big improvement on anything he had achieved before as he came with a late run, in what was a fairly rough race, to snatch victory on the line.

The horse just denied that was KONDRATIEV WAVE who was given an enterprising ride by Hollie Doyle from the front. On the evidence of that, and previous runs, this step up in trip does not look the obvious way to go.

The horse who finished 3rd that day is, also, now weighted to reverse the form with both of the 2 who finished narrowly in front of him. That horse is GROVE FERRY and he finished the race in a manner that suggests that this step up in trip will suit. He is one of those in the line-up who won’t mind too much if the forecast rain arrives, and the ground eases, as he has winning form on soft. He has high draw but his run style suggests he may need some luck in-running as he is likely to be played late.

Another of those to have only run twice so far is KHALOOSY. He runs for Roger Varian, who ended Wednesday with a nice winner here, and represents an owner and jockey who have tasted plenty of success already this week. His last run came at Wolverhampton, in November, when he won very well, quickening nicely under a hands and heel ride in the final stages of a race run over a distance just beyond a mile. The horse who finished 2nd that day has won since to frank the form although it is just possible that the race fell apart a little. He is yet to race on turf but all-weather form does seem to translate well here at Ascot and this horse could well prove much better than handicap level in time. He is another with a high draw, being stalled in 19.

One with rather more experience is GREAT AMBASSADOR, having had 5 runs as a 2 year-old and he has been well supported in the market on Wednesday evening. He won easily on the last of those starts, his only victory to date, but it is his 2nd place finish behind Pyledriver last July that catches the eye, given the taking victory of that horse here on Tuesday. He also ran well in a strong race at Goodwood where several of those involved are now rated much higher than the mark he finds himself on here. He’s an interesting contender and is also drawn high.

One horse for whom the draw has done no favours is STARCAT. He ran an excellent race in the 2000 Guineas, on what was only his second career start, and takes a step down in class here. His trainer does well with his 3 year-olds at Ascot and does like to target this meeting but the potential softening of the ground and the draw temper my enthusiasm for him here.

In summary, FINEST SOUND is the obvious one here and it is worth having a ‘win saver’ on him to cover the stakes on the e/w selections. For the e/w selections, the race at Lingfield could be key and the two horses who finished 3rd and 4th there (VERBOTEN and GROVE FERRY) could well reverse form with their victors, given the swing in the weights and the extra furlong here. In addition to these, I can’t resist a stab at KHALOOSY who could prove to be much better than this grade in time. His price has been shortening even as I write this piece but he still retains some e/w value.