Ascot 4.10
By DC Tips
WOKINGHAM - Ascot 4.10
As the final day of Royal Ascot arrives, things don’t get any easier for the betting public with, traditionally, one of the most competitive sprint handicaps of the year taking place.
The Wokingham is run over the straight 6 furlongs, and is usually a bit of a cavalry charge, and, despite the maximum field this year being reduced, it still looks as difficult a puzzle to solve as always.
The market for the race was shaken up a little on Friday when the favourite was withdrawn and this has now left the lightly-raced 5 year-old, BIELSA, at the top of the market. This Kevin Ryan-trained son of Invincible Spirit is sure to prove popular with Leeds fans and was purchased by his current owners over the winter with this race in mind. He could be the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’ but, at the current odds, he is short enough given the competitive nature of the race and his relative inexperience and, so, I am willing to take him on.
A trainer I always respect in this big handicaps is David O’Meara and he has 3 entries in here. He has quietly, under the radar, been coming into a bit of decent form with his string in the past week and I would not discount any of his runners in this contest.
According to the betting, the one with the best chance of success here is the ultra-consistent SUMMERGHAND. He is a horse, we have tipped up on this service several times in the past and he has often delivered place returns. He was 5th in this race last year, was placed in The Stewards Cup at Goodwood, The Great St Wilfrid at Ripon and, also, in The Ayr Gold Cup but only got his head in front once last year when successful at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day. He was kept busy in Dubai over the winter but ran a very good race, when 2nd behind TINTO, on return at Newmarket two weeks ago.
He is only 1lb higher than last year and has a very good jockey on board but, although the ground is drying now after Thursday’s rain, I have always felt he is better on a sounder surface than is likely here. I’m sure he will run another very solid race and he is a very strong contender for a place at least.
The race that SUMMERGHAND ran in on return featured several other runners that line up here. One of those is stable-mate GULLIVER who never really got involved that day but should strip fitter after the run. He may, also, have found the ground a bit lively that day so should appreciate the easier conditions more here. He won a couple of big-field handicaps last season, both at York, and then won a handicap on the fibresand at Southwell over the winter giving away lumps of weight. Taking that form literally would mean that he is thrown in here off his turf handicap mark as he runs off 2lbs lower than that day and is now rated 7lbs below his revised all-weather rating. There is a danger, however, in taking the form at Southwell too literally and there is no doubt he faces a stiffer task here. The booking of Ryan Moore, however, is one that catches the eye and, if he progresses for the prep run at Newmarket, he could run a big race off a mark that is only 2lbs higher than that he raced off when winning the valuable Coral Sprint Trophy at York in October. He beat a number who re-oppose here on that occasion and is weighted to repeat the form with them if running to the same level in this race.
With O’Meara’s final runner, ARECIBO, I must start by declaring an interest as I did have a bet on him for this race earlier this week when he was 33/1 as I thought that was just too big a price. Obviously, I still like his chances of running a big race but he has been strongly supported in the market in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at less than half those odds. I thought it significant that he is the mount of stable-jockey Danny Tudhope but that may be more to do with the fact that he is contracted to ride for the part-owners rather than any preferred choice on his part. He does, however, have some decent form at the track. He finished 2nd in two handicaps last season, in differing ground conditions, and, after a pipe-opener a fortnight ago in The Palace House Stakes at Newmarket looks primed for this. Since arriving from France, he has competed more at 5 furlongs than he has at this distance and both of his runs here last season came over the minimum distance. He was, however, staying on in both races and the second of those, in particular, was a very creditable effort as it came against Dakota Gold who was in a real purple patch at the time. Like his two stable-mates he could run a big race but some of the value has now gone from his price.
The weights are headed by DANZENO who is another who is a model of consistency in big sprints. He finished 3rd in the race won by GULLIVER at York and was also 3rd in this race 12 months ago. He is, however, 4lbs worse off with GULLIVER here and is, also, 4lbs higher in the handicap than he was this time last year which will make things tough.
ANGEL ALEXANDER won the Ayr Gold Cup last September, as a 3 year-old, and is an improving sprinter. He spent the winter competing in Group contests in Meydan so these are calmer waters but he is high in the handicap. He does, however, have a high draw which, historically in this race and, this week has proven to be an advantage.
Of those drawn low, I would expect the early pace-setters to include BIELSA, RECON MISSION and JACKS POINT. The latter ran a stormer here earlier in the week when finishing 2nd in The Buckingham Palace Stakes over 7 furlongs. He actually found himself still in front with a furlong left so this step-back shouldn’t be a problem. He runs off the same mark here and has run within a week of previous race in the past.
Coming out of the high stalls, the pace could be set by HIGHLAND DRESS, AIR RAID and SOLDIER'S MINUTE. The latter is hardly the most consistent animal but he did run well on the all-weather over the winter and had a facile win at York, last May, when he blew a very good field away from the front off a mark 8lbs lower than he runs off here. In behind that day were ARECIBO and GULLIVER and, although both are better off at the weights, they were some way behind. The drying ground will be in his favour whilst Joe Fanning has ridden him to 3 of his 4 career wins to date. In fact, their record together as a partnership is 3 wins and 3 places from 11 runs so they do seem to get on well with each other. It is not always easy to lead all the way up this stiff 6 furlongs but the horse does have winning form over 7 furlongs which, in the past, has proved a useful facet to have in this race. The Dalgleish stable have not really fired since racing’s resumption, which is a small worry, but this horse did win off a long break first time up last year so he is capable of a big run at decent each-way odds.
Drawn next to SOLDIER’S MINUTE, in stall 19, is SPANISH CITY. This 7 year-old has been a regular in big-field handicaps in the past couple of seasons and has often run with great credit. Much of his form is over 7 furlongs which, with 8 of the last 10 winners of this race having winning form over that trip, is no bad thing over this stiff 6 furlongs. He should get a nice tow into the race, and his stable have been in fine form this week, but, although the ground is drying, he may want the going to be quicker than this.
AIR RAID would have been very high on my short-list if the ground had remained soft for this race. He is a horse who, so far in his career, either wins or gets well beaten and 4 of his 5 wins have come on soft going. He won 3 races, all at Hamilton, last summer which saw him rise 19lbs in the handicap and, although he has started to creep back, he still needs a career best here. He is another with winning form over 7 furlongs.
Clive Cox had a big winner on Day 4 of Royal Ascot and he runs two contenders here. KONCHEK had some very good form as a 2 year-old but was rather disappointing last season. His only previous run in a field this big was in last September’s Portland Handicap and he rather ‘bombed out’ and he does have it all to prove here.
Stable jockey Adam Kirby takes the ride on LETHAL LUNCH and he enhanced, his excellent record when riding on the straight track at Ascot by partnering the big winner for Cox on Friday. This horse is another who has winning form over 7 furlongs and 4 of his 5 wins have come over that distance. Perhaps significantly, however, his sole success over 6 furlongs actually came at this track so the drop back in distance at this course holds no fears. He finished 9th on his only other visit here, last September, but was badly hampered that day when just starting to make his move a furlong out so we can probably draw a line through that effort and he duly won his next race just a week later. There is a small question mark about him handling the hustle and bustle of a big field, as he has not had much experience of that so far, whilst he will certainly want the ground to dry as much as possible having been pulled from the opening race on Tuesday due to the good-to-soft ground. He wears a first-time tongue-tie here and is likely to be produced late so will need the gaps to appear at the right time.
In summary, I think David O’Meara could have a say in this race and, of his horses, at the prices, I think GULLIVER is the value play, with him having decent form over further than this trip, so we will have 1pt each-way on him and, at a bigger price, 1pt each-way on LETHAL LUNCH who, also, has winning form over 7 furlongs and, in the absence of Jamie Spencer this year, probably has the best jockey over the straight course on board.
SUMMERGHAND is such a consistent performer in these contests that, with enhanced places on offer, it is worth making him a ‘tracker selection’ at ½ pt each-way whilst, at much bigger odds again, SOLDIER’S MINUTE is capable of running into the places if able to get an early prominent position in the race so we will make him a second ‘tracker bet’ in the race.