Ascot 3.40
By DC Tips
ASCOT 3.40 - Sodexo - Handicap Chase
There is plenty of rain in the forecast for Ascot ahead of post time for this 3m handicap chase and there is every chance that the going will be soft by the time the starter drops his flag to send the 14 strong field on their way in this.
Top weight in the field is BLACK CORTON and he represents the trainer and jockey combination that pulled off a win in the big handicap chase last Saturday with Frodon and they will no doubt be hoping that history repeats itself. This 9 year-old is an admirably consistent performer and has completed the course in 34 of his 35 races under NH rules and, as if to underline his consistency, he has only ever finished outside of the first 4 in those races on one occasion – when 5th in the 2018 RSA Chase at Cheltenham. He ran in this contest last year when, again, he had to shoulder top weight and will be looking to improve on his 3rd place finish on that occasion. He is 2lbs lower this year but that is still 5lbs higher than his last winning mark so needs a career best here. He has undergone wind surgery over the summer, which may bring about some improvement, and looks a solid each-way contender here.
It is interesting, given all of his success, that Paul Nicholls has never trained the winner of this race and this year he fires two bullets at the contest as he also runs ADRIEN DU PONT. This 8 year-old is in the same ownership as Cyrname who was, originally, also entered here before connections decided to take their chance in The Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. He ran in the race last year and was pulled-up whilst he competed too in the 2018 renewal when finishing 4th. The horse has largely disappointed since winning a valuable chase, over this distance, at Kempton almost two years ago but does find himself now back down to that last winning mark and has the added benefit of his rider’s 5lb claim. He is often ridden patiently but can have a tendency to pull too hard early in the race. He will, therefore, want a strong pace here and will be hoping his stable-mate can take them along at a good clip.
Champion trainer, Nicky Henderson, also runs a couple in here and the first of them is MIGHT BITE. This quirky 11 year-old has rather lost his way since he had a stellar couple of years in 2017 and 2018 and connections now see his future lying, perhaps, over the cross-country fences. He ran in that discipline at The Cheltenham Festival and was far from disgraced and it could be that this race is a bit of pipe-opener to get him ready for more challenges over the banks. The handicapper has given him a real chance, based on his old form, but it would take a brave punter to confidently pin their hopes of him reprising former glories.
The second runner from Seven Barrows is VALTOR. This 11 year-old only joined this yard 2 years ago and announced himself on the British stage with an impressive win over this course-and-distance when taking a listed contest a few weeks later. This is only his 8th start for the Henderson stable and it will be his 4th appearance at this venue. It is a venue he has run well at on his previous 3 visits, winning 2 and finishing 2nd in the other. He is only 2lbs higher than the mark he ran from on debut and will enjoy the likely soft ground. Henderson won the race in 2012 and has had several placed in it since and he always seems to target this early Ascot meeting. The only negative to my mind is the fact that Darryl Jacob, who is the retained rider for the owners, is heading up to Wetherby rather than riding here but they do have a very able deputy in Aiden Coleman who has a decent strike-rate for this yard in recent seasons.
Another horse who has proven he goes well at this track is REGAL ENCORE. He is now 12 years old and this will be his 10th appearance at the course. On his previous visits he has won 3 times and finished in the places twice. One of those places was in this race last year, when he was 2nd, although he is 3lbs higher here. He, subsequently, won on his next visit here last December (finishing ahead of BLACK CORTON) before finishing 3rd here in February when just over a length behind VALTOR. He is 1lb better off with the Henderson horse here so is entitled to get closer and he has had wind surgery over the summer. His trainer is in decent form right now, and there could still be one last pay-day in the horse, but his record on reappearance is not great and he may improve for this run.
Another trainer who is double-handed in this race is Nigel Twiston-Davies. His first entry is FLYING ANGEL and this horse won on his last visit to this track just under 12 months ago. That win came over 2miles 5 furlongs and was in soft ground but the horse has never won over this far. He is 2lbs higher here and is well held by VALTOR on their running here just under 2 years ago.
TOWNSHEND also represents Twiston-Davies and this former Willie Mullins inmate is another who has won over course-and-distance. That came in an amateur jockeys' race in January and was after a 9-month absence from the track. He, then, ran well for a long way in The Ultima Chase at Cheltenham, before pulling up, but was disappointing on seasonal debut last month when finishing last over hurdles at Perth. The owner’s son takes the ride and was in the plate when the horse won in January. His best runs have come, largely, in soft or heavy conditions and it would not be a surprise to see him out-run his likely odds here.
The favourite for this race for most of the week has been COMMANCHE RED. The 7 year-old has one piece of stand-out form and that came in his only handicap run so far when bolting in at Kempton last Christmas over 2 ½ miles. He beat the promising, and now 157 rated, Simply The Betts by 9 lengths that day, when in receipt of 3lbs. That horse, of course, went on to win at The Cheltenham Festival and has only been beaten on that one occasion over fences. Chris Gordon’s charge is now 13lbs higher but could still be well-handicapped based on that piece of form. The third horse that day has won twice subsequently whilst the fourth home has also franked the form of the race. He had excuses when beaten in a grade 2 next time out but, personally, I would want to see more than just one piece of form to be keen on a horse at the current odds in a race like this and especially given that he is yet to try a trip this far. He may prove me completely wrong, in which case I will doff my cap and move on, but he is not on my short-list.
Another in the field who could still have improvement to come over fences is WHATMORE and he gets in here off a nice low weight. He had a solid first campaign over fences, winning his debut in a 3-runner affair, and never finished out of the first 4. He is a hold-up performer who was, on occasion, given too much to do in his races last term. His jumping is not always the most fluent and it could cost him here if it hasn’t sharpened up. He ran a very good race at The Cheltenham Festival when finishing 4th in the 2 ½ mile novice chase but he shapes as though 3 miles is his better trip. He is still rated below his hurdle mark, which suggests there is still improvement to come, and, with Richard Johnson on board, he could run a big race here. He is definitely one for my shortlist.
Of the others in here, MISTER MALARKY finished down the field in this contest last year, is 1lb higher and may come on for this run en route to the Ladbroke Trophy next month. WALK IN THE MILL is another who probably has other targets and, whilst he is a course-and-distance winner, owned by Dido Harding, you don’t need any ‘track and trace’ system to indicate that he is being aimed for a repeat victory in The Becher Chase in early December.
My final short-list for this race contained 4 horses. Firstly, WHATMORE, who could be nicely handicapped and has a nice low weight, could play a part at the finish if getting his jumping right. His price has, however, shortened somewhat in the last 48 hours so he misses out on value grounds. Then, there is ADRIEN DU PONT who, being trained by Nicholls, has to be taken seriously. He is running off a career-low mark when taking into account his rider’s claim and is best going right-handed. He will, ideally, want a strong pace to enable him to settle first-time out and that may not be guaranteed here so he just misses the cut (although would be first reserve should one of the two main selections not run).
VALTOR is another who has attracted support on Friday but he is still an each-way price and looks the value play in here. He has won on seasonal debut at this track for the last 2 seasons, has a decent record in general at the track and should enjoy the likely soft ground. His trainer likes to target this meeting as a bit of a springboard for the season and, whilst a number of his opponents in here may be being primed for other targets, this is probably Plan A for the horse.
BLACK CORTON is a little shorter in the betting but he looks a solid each-way player, given his consistent record and the fact he goes well fresh. Connections will be looking for a repeat of last Saturday’s outcome with this top-weight. There may be one or, even, two better on the day but it’s difficult to envisage him out of the placed (especially if taking advantage of the enhanced place offers).
TIP - Valtor - 1 point each way / Tracker - Black Corton - 1/2 point each way