Ascot 1.50
By DC Tips
QUEEN ANNE 1.50 - Elite Service / David
This Group 1 contest is one of the highlights of the week for many and has been won by some fine horses over the years.
It could be argued that the mile division has not been the strongest in recent years, however, and the last two renewals have not been the strongest and, it seems that this also does not look the strongest of Group 1 contests on paper.
The ground is currently described as Good on the straight course and, although there is an uncertain forecast for the week ahead, it’s unlikely to be riding much different by the time they go to post in this one. There should not, therefore, be any excuses on that front if that is the case.
I would expect that the field may well split into two groups from the gate, as can often be the case here, but, after a furlong or two, may then come together and race in an ‘arrowhead’ formation up the centre of the track. There looks to be quite a bit of pace in the field and the race may well suit one that can maybe be held up and produced in the last furlong.
The current favourite is CIRCUS MAXIMUS who represents the all powerful Aiden O’Brien yard and ridden by Ryan Moore. Surprisingly, Ryan Moore has never won The Queen Anne but the Ballydoyle trainer has won this race 3 times in the past and it is easy to see why the bookies make his charge favourite to give him a 4th success. A drop in trip to this mile distance and the fitting of blinkers were the making of him last season after he had finished 6th in The Derby and he looks to follow in the illustrious footsteps of Canford Cliffs and Frankel in doing the Royal Ascot Mile double of The St James’s Palace Stakes and The Queen Anne after winning the former here 12 months ago. He followed that up with a good win in another Group 1 at Longchamp in September before disappointing a little at The Breeders Cup at Santa Anita at the end of the season.
He proves that he can run well after a long break, having won The Dee Stakes at Chester on seasonal debut last year, but he is yet to win on a straight course, in 3 attempts, and I have to oppose him at the current odds in such an open looking contest.
Another at shortish odds I think is worth opposing is TEREBELLUM. She gave Frankie Dettori his first winner in the Godolphin Blue silks since his split with them when she won at Newmarket 10 days ago and she certainly won very well that day. She drops down in trip here for the first time, and is up in class, whilst it is also the first time she has competed against horses outside of her own sex. The trainer and jockey are as good as they come and, whilst I will doff my cap to them both should she prevail here, she looks a poor price to me on what she has achieved so far.
The top-rated horse in this race is MUSTASHRY and he proved to be better than ever last season, as a 6 year-old, when winning the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. He was a winning tip for this service on that occasion and showed, again, what a master Michael Stoute can be at improving horses as they get older. He rather disappointed after that in this race 12 months ago but rounded off the season nicely by making all in a Group 2, over 7f, at Newmarket. He’s gone well fresh in the past and is fairly versatile with regards to distance but Jim Crowley has jumped ship and it could be a younger more unexposed type is what is required to win this race this year.
The horse that Jim Crowley has chosen to ride is MOHAATHER who represents Marcus Tregonning. The trainer has certainly hit the ground running since racing’s resumption and can boast a strike-rate of 40% in the past fortnight. This 4 year-old looked to be a major contender for the 2000 Guineas last season following an impressive win in The Greenham bust sustained a stress fracture and missed much of the rest of the season as a result. He returned with a very encouraging run in the QueenElizabeth II stakes on Champions Day over course-and-distance last October, keeping on well in the heavy ground after the lengthy lay-off. His run in The Greenham proves that he can run well fresh and, with an un-interrupted winter reported, he should be well prepared for this new test. He looks like a horse who travels well through his races and has a nice turn of foot. He is drawn alongside the likely front-runner in here, MARIE’S DIAMOND, and could get a nice tow into the race as a result. Jockeys don’t always get it right but Jim Crowley must see something to convince him to get off the top-rated, proven Group 1 winner, for this lad.
MOHAATHER comes from the same breeding line as ACCIDENTAL AGENT and he sprang a shock in this race when winning 2 years ago. He, then, blotted his copybook last year when refusing to race and he has not won since tasting success here 2 years ago. He is a horse who likes to be held up and come from off a strong pace and, in that regard, he may well get the race run to suit. For a former winner, he is a massive price but there really has been no encouragement in any of his recent outings and he is usually best having had a prep run.
With a lot of question marks remaining over the older milers, I think it is worth focussing on the 4 year-old contingent in this year’s contest.
Cases could be made for the likes of SKARDU, SPACE TRAVELLER, DUKE OF HAZZARD and ROSEMAN but, in addition to the aforementioned MOHAATHER, the other horse from the 4 year-old generation that catches my eye is FOX CHAIRMAN.
He was unraced as a 2 year-old and was only lightly-campaigned last year but he has run some good races and it looks like there is still plenty of improvement to come. He has won over a mile, when winning on debut last April, but his other 3 outings all came over further. He came 3rd behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS in The Dee Stakes last season, when not getting the clearest of passages round Chester’s tight turns, and was, again, the victim of misfortune when finishing 2nd in The Hampton Court Stakes (3 places ahead of ROSEMAN) at this meeting last year. There is a risk that this trip may be a little on the short side for him but it is a stiff mile at Ascot and, with a strongly-run race looking likely, he should be staying on at the end. Providing he doesn’t get too badly out-paced and SDS can produce him without getting into any traffic problems this time, connections will be hoping he can gain some compensation for them following the narrow defeat of the ill-fated Beat The Bank in this race last year.
Whilst I believe that the race could be dominated by the 4 year-olds, I cannot resist a small saver, with a bit of loose change, on an old favourite of SP2A. That horse is the 5 year-old mare BILLESDEN BROOK. Longer-standing members will recall that she was a 66/1 selection when she won the 1,000 Guineas in 2018 and that was the first of 2 Group 1 contests she has won. She is, obviously, up against it here, taking on the boys, but she is a big price for a horse with her ability and she ran well to finish 2nd, under a 7lb penalty, last week at Kempton. That run will have blown the cobwebs away and she does seem to enjoy a strongly-run race up a straight mile course. Her trainer knows how to win this race, having claimed it 3 times in the past, and, especially if the rain does come sooner and in greater quantity than expected, she is the one most likely to spring a surprise at a big price in my opinion.