Warwick 2.57 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 11 run - Good

 

Lizzie Ray won at 33/1 out of the blue at Southwell last time and is around 9/4 today. I'm always a bit circumspect of Southwell form in general and especially so as this one was poor prior to that win in first time cheekpieces. The aids may or may not work again but 9/4 is far too short for me. Honey Jack has won off a mark of 88 but then struggled off a mark of 94 last time when the jockey reported a "respiratory noise" if it runs like that again you can't be investing, if it runs like when it won you could, but at the price I will leave it alone. Luna Runa should be ideally suited to conditions but may need the run off a break of 141 days and De Vegas Warrior was running very well last time until a crashing fall two fences out, one to watch for the future although feared and respected if no mental scars from that fall.

 

My top 2 rated are LYNESS DANCER whose best run so far was last time and who looks like a horse still to reach its ceiling. 81 with a 5 lbs Claim looks like a fair mark and I'll be disappointed if we're not in the places at the very least. At the other end of the scale experience wise is the fully exposed NEWTONIAN, best on better ground so the last run (when tipped) was disappointing, however the horse has a Course win at this sort of trip (on the inner Hurdle Course) off a mark of 79 last May and a mark of 77 with a 5lbs claim and frankly on the same track for most of the trip, suggests a better run should be imminent. (RJ)

 

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Clonmel 3.42 - Handicap Chase - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 14 run - Yielding

 

At the top end of the market here we have Bite That who arrives after 4 x runner up efforts and a win up 8lbs and in trip, so I think vulnerable to an improver or one off a nice mark. Doonberg Dan looks to be quite high in the handicap now too as does One Horse Army and joining them in the top 4-5 in the market is the lovely mare Emily in Paris, a very consistent horse but one who usually needs a run of two after a break and she has been off since mid November, her chance will come before too long and we'll be waiting.

 

Maciver arrives on a 5 timer including a Course and Distance win off a mark of 89 and I'll doff my cap if it won here again off a mark of 106 (- 3). At big Odds a little mention for Jump The Shark who I've added to the Tracker, lame last time and one who might need a bit more time, and the deeply frustrating Robyndeglory who is just going to pop up one of these days (if you want a small ew saver)

 

My clear top 2 rated are PEBBLE BLEU a Punchestown winner off a mark of 99 last Spring on Good ground, back to a mark of 102 with the 3lbs Claim bang on that win mark and one who I can significantly improve on recent form now back on better ground. BALDUR'S GATE is second rated as I think this slight drop from an extended 3 miles down to a furlong shy of 3 miles will be ideal, a solid profile with a lot of strong runs to this sort of trip before fading of longer, I will be very disappointed if this one doesn't place here.

 

The other one who really caught my eye and if you CAN - back "in running" if you can't consider a small investment on HARVEY'S QUAY , runs prominently, can win, style of running will really suit this Course but with that prominent style comes a fizzy horse who twice in the past 4 runs has over-jumped the first obstacle and fallen. Its purely down to exuberance so if you can, watch it (hopefully) safely over the first and then have a few quid place on the exchange "in running" (MG)

 

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