Punchestown 2.25 - Grand National Trial - 3 miles 3 furlongs - 17 run - Soft

 

A race that has significance not just for the Aintree and Irish versions in April but possibly also for the Scottish version at Ayr. the UK Midlands version at Newcastle and may be a few other big races too.

 

At the top end of the market are the likes of Will Do (solid form but extra 2 furlongs is a niggle), Fovouri De Champdou (mixed form messages but one who can pop up), Ask Anything (yard form a plus as is some promise last season and just missed out in our final analysis). At mid range sort of prices I looked long and hard at Bushman's Pass (trip concerns); Cleatus Poolaw (significant jumping issues), St Dennis Well (stamina concerns but dangerous if getting trip), Where It All Began (facile winner of this last season, poor since but could easily revive) and Spanish Harlem (interesting Scottish National run last year and may be being trained for that again).

 

The other at bigger early prices worth a mention would be Macdermott (too bad to be true so far this season but still only a 7 year old) .

 

I was left with a short list of 4 comprising one of the favourites, one in mid range betting market and two at longer odds who I have a degree of quiet confidence about that warrants a small bet. 

 

VELVET ELVIS is worth a win or craft each way bet at around 5/1. The yard is in cracking form and is one who I think will go in 100% to win races now and not like some others who will tend to hide horses in races looking for better handicap marks come Cheltenham / Aintree etc. I can't see any reason with luck in running why VELVET ELVIS is the one they all have to beat here. MACS CHARM is a big price and is at first sight out of form. I note with great interest though that his handicap mark has now fallen to well below his last winning mark of 135 and off 132 here at ideal trip and conditions, I will be frankly disappointed if he's not in the first 5 home and in the money.  

 

STORMY JUDGE was a remote 5th in this last year beaten 30 lengths by the winner (Where It All Began) and is in better form this season than that one and gets not only a stone pull in the weights with that one but is 7lbs lower today and did finish closer the the runner up last year than the runner up did to the winner. A run in to at least 5th is therefore my expectation today. Finally, at the big priced end of the market again, I think SPHAGNUM who has wins at slightly further than this off marks of 116 and 125 runs off a mark of 131 with a 5lbs Claimer and provided it is not too soft should outrun Odds of 20/1 or higher. (Placespotter)

 

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