Carlisle 3.20 - Handicap Chase - Class 2 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 16 run - Good

 

There are 16 runners here over an extended 3 miles on Good ground.  The market, aside from 3-4 at Odds over 20/1 is very compact with around 8-10 horses in the 10-14/1 range. You can make claims for most of them but equally you can make counterclaims so in reality I was left with a very short list of 6 horses.

 

I think that Hold The Note who won this in 2023 on heavy but who is out of form and not at best on Good ground, Monochromix, from an in form yard but with very mixed form, Catchcatchfire, a progressive 6 year old who may have needed some rain and Emotional Roller, who was my 3rd best rated if we have a non runner, deserve at the least a passing mention. 

 

I'm very strong though on the favourite RED HAPPY who won over Course and Distance last time, after winning its previous race, off a 3lb penalty and a mark of 114, which seems lenient, I think it's the one they all have to beat with luck in running. The other one i could not leave out of calculations is Course and Distance specialist UPTOWN HARRY who will love the ground, clearly gets the trip and Carlisle and most interesting that it's last 2 wins have been in March, 2023 and 2024...let's hope for a trio of March wins (Northern)

 

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Limerick 4.38 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 13 run - Good

 

In contrast there are plenty with a chance here and the likes of Whatey's Quest (mark?) , Sainte Dona (trip), Banprinosa (trip?) at the top of the market may be vulnerable. Emily In Paris is a favourite of ours and very consistent but past evidence is she'll need the run off a winter break. At bigger odds, Where's Frankie on only his second Chase start after setting off at just 16/1 in the 2024 Irish National, and Clonmeen who has slipped to a very nice mark but who may need rain, were very strongly considered and 4th and 5th in my final analysis.

 

I really like MADE IN THE WOODS and GAME AND GLORY though, MADE IN THE WOODS was winner of this race in 2023, a runner up over Course and Distance here last time and ticks all the right boxes. GAME AND GLORY has a very nice Chase Handicap mark and again ticks all the right boxes. My 3rd rated is the Gavin Cromwell trained INVICTUS MACHIN and with the yard form he can't be ignored and may well improve for the trip and ground, so a small e/w is strongly suggested. (MG)

 

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