Fairyhouse 1.22 - Novices Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 19 run - Soft / Heavy

 

A lot of these are being penalised for decent wins in the past but taking a long time to come down the handicap. The Irish handicappers do tend to overreact sometimes and it can mean a nice win can be penalised by upto a stone in weight and the horse then treads water for 12-18 months. The likes of Must Go Now; Collaborative, Crescent moon very much fall into this category. Young Lucy is building a solid profile and should be in contention and just missed out on a tip as did Newtown Ramber for Henry De Bromhead who had 3 quick Autumn runs and definitely one to TRACK forwards. He'd be my reserve if any in the top 3 rated were a non runner.

 

KRABAT is a 10 year old so hardly a Novice and has gone close enough a number of times to suggest he just needs the cards to fall perfectly once.  Big field experience in the mud will be a strong benefit here and it just may be the day when everything falls right. He's Gorgeous will benefit for a recent spin and should strip fit enough now, he's capable of running an each way place here in optimum conditions. BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA is another who ticks all the right boxes and with form up to 3 miles if it becomes a real slog he should be ploughing on when many have raised the white flag. His mark is on the high side but the stamina angle is too strong for me to ignore (MG)

 

----

 

Cork 3.22 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 20 run - Yielding (some rain)

 

A race full of possibilities and a few probably more likely to appreciate the conditions.

 

West Is Awake and both Robyndeglory and Aleish Lass, who are first and second reserve have shouts on old form and are coming down the handicap but we've been saying that all winter. John Storey and Cullig are in a similar bracket at the moment but feared nonetheless, Getaway charlie was my 5th rated and one to keep a very close eye on as he is rapidly falling in to handicap mark range and will be winning soon. At the head of the market is the most progressive and scopey horse in the race in ROKATHIR and despite a 12lbs penalty a win-saver especially at around 5-6/1 would be a sensible backstop.

 

With enhanced odds to 5th and 6th my top 4 rated in preference order are-:

 

THOR KHAV - this one really caught my eye on some Novice form that suggests this handicap mark may yet be lenient and the thought that he really does have latent untapped ability that he just needs to turn into results.

 

EMANCIPATOR could improve markedly for a recent run, very well handicapped now and surely one who is going to deliver a tangible result soon

 

CHOSEN THYME on a receding mark, generally consistent and a very solid each way poke to finish in the first 5 home

 

SIR BOB a 13 year old veteran but still sprightly enough to be very competitive here on a Course where he thrives and gets ideal conditions so hard to discount.

 

(Sean)