Sandown 3.35 - Bet 365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase 3 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 20 run - Good to Soft (rain)

 

I think the rain coming in here could be significant as the turf has probably been watered and it may not take too much to change the Going to genuinely soft. That suits a lot more than others and something to keep a close eye on. It's definitely not going to get firmer but more likely considerably softer.

 

The other keep think I bear in mind here is that whilst some horses are equally adaptable going left or right handed, most have a preference and therefore course specialists right handed here and at Courses like Kempton and Ascot cannot be ignored and can be given leeway for poor run at places like Cheltenham and Aintree.

 

A quick glance at those not selected and why, I think rain and a long season will blunt the admirable Kittys Light, our Irish experts fancy Minella Cocooner over Nick Rockett, Amirite and Aime Desjy, so make of that what you will IF you want an Irish horse in this race. Does He Know and Rapper would have been more seriously considered had it not been for the rain coming in and Annual Invictus is similarly ignored today.

 

I was left with 4 real fancies but a desire to keep to 3 pokes and for the record and transparency and those who might like to know Bangers And Cash @ 33/1 who ticks a lot of boxes for me at nice e/w odds was the 4th rated so we'll class as a suggested reserve if there is a non runner later on amongst these 3, who carry my most confidence.

 

THREEUPTHRUFIVE may or may not have been saved for the by Paul Nicholls, almost certainly too late to save his Title aspirations but clearly a horse they think a lot of and a win or very strong run here would almost certainly open up a more structured and planned Autumn campaign for next season. He won't mind the rain, gets the trip and has a distinct advantage in terms of freshness. SLIPWAY comes from the Pauling yard who have consistently out-performed Odds in this type of race all season, he is what he is, best right handed, in form but the 6lbs penalty does not look excessive, in the form of his life, and proven at the trip and another who would not be disadvantaged by rain. ENRILO just got the nod for the final selection, best right handed, lightly raced, unlucky in this in 2021 and lurking off a very nice mark. (Spec)

 

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NAVAN  4.35 Handicap (Flat) 1 mile 5 furlongs - 20 Run - Yielding

 

An early season race that will stretch the stamina of all of these and with some likely to need the run, some coming from NH racing is a decent puzzle to try to solve.

 

San Martino is appealing on his old Flat mark and could outrun odds, Rain is a Course and Distance winner who will almost certainly need this run, Byker has some interesting UK Flat form for Richard Hannon and was lightly discarded and Newport and Make Good are unexposed and dangerous types that I'm TRACKING forwards as both should be winning this season. I'm going to take on Narlita and Bay Of Sanibel at the top of the market as both make their seasonal debut so fitness has to be taken on trust.

 

I'm very keen on FOLLY BEACH who is AW race fit and who has very commendable Course form here and really no excuses, ST FAZ is very interesting off a mark of 73 based on an eyecatching effort at Down Royal last summer that validated form and stamina and RICH BELIEF won this race last year off a mark of 74, has had a similar break but clearly runs well fresh and every chance of a place at least off a mark of 76. (MG)

 

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Sandown 5.20 - Class 2 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 18 run - Soft

 

I'm taking it that Going by this time will be softer,

 

I fear a few dark horses in Will Carver, Bad and Gold Dancer, it's interesting that some think that if Mullins has tied up the Title by this time he may pull Sa Majeste who has an entry at Punchestown. Authorised Speed @ 12/1  and Monviel @ 20/1 were my 4th and 5th best rated and big runs for both would be no surprise.

 

I'm very keen though on PIC ROC, lightly raved but an excellent sequence and is the one they all have to beat here and I have no weather concerns. MARK OF GOLD has form right handed and any rain is a plus and ARQOOB just got the nod over Authorised Speed as it is a course winner , clearly best right handed and again , no weather concerns.  (TA)

 

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Doncaster 6.40 Handicap (Flat) Cl 3 - 6 furlongs - 19 run - Soft (dry)

 

These Donny Sprints can be a minefield and I will not partake too often this season but the Going and early season nature of the form ,or lack of it, really did give me a clear cut and standout 3 options rated well above almost everything else in the field.

 

Magical Spirit is probably going to need the run, Sterling Knight is another who may be better after a few runs and Oso Rapido @ 50/1 and Dakota Gold @ 14/1  are the only pair at bigger odds who merited serious consideration and either could pop up at a nice price so take note if you wish.

 

My clear top 3 rated though are LETHAL NYMPH a Course and Distance winner, race fit off a very nice mark and no excuses, you can write exactly the same synopsis really for FANTASY MASTER and the only mitigating factor to doubt ASCOT ADVENTURE who ticks all the same boxes is that he may not be as well handicapped in terms of a slightly higher than ideal handicap mark. (North)

 

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