Newmarket 2.50 - Bunbury Cup Handicap - Class 2 - 7 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Firm

 

I think that the market will largely dominate here and I discarded both More Thunder who steps back up in trip and Ten Pounds who ran poorly last time but who otherwise would have solid claims in favour of RUN BOY RUN who ran as well as his draw probably allowed at Royal Ascot and who went in to the TRACKER as a result and who also has a good Course and Distance record here and AKKADIAN THUNDER who looks progressive and still well handicapped and one we may not have seen the best of yet. IF there is a Draw bias I think it's middle to high! (RJ)

 

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York 3.10 - John Smith's Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 and 1/2 furlongs - Good to Firm - 18 run

 

A cracking renewal of the race and I really found it tough to whittle down to a short list of 3.

 

The favourite is the 3 year old Archivist who may well have scope to improve and who may be ahead of its mark, but there are some exposed and indeed unexposed older horses in here and for that reason I'll take on the baby of the field.

 

I think low to middle is preferable draw wise unless you fly the traps and are able to get across before the turn in without expending too much energy , once further back you can hit a wall of horses and require considerable luck in running.

 

I looked closely at the likes of Brioni whose 5lbs penalty is less of a concern than Stall 18 or 18, Faylaq is better over further but does run this Course very well so hard to leave out on that basis, Dark Moon Rising is out of form but runs well here, 50/1 does have some sort of appeal if you fancy shrapnel e/w and I have added this one to my TRACKER as I feel sure a revival will come, hopefully not today. Fox Legacy ran better than final position suggested at Royal Ascot and was my 5th best rated here and would have been a tip but for being in Stall 19, another to keep a close eye on when better drawn. Hand Of God may still need a few runs but has shown glimmers of form after a year off, and finally my 4th best rated, IF you want to play enhanced places and certainly as a very strong reserve IF we have a non runner is HAVE SECRET an exposed but ultimately consistent type who is the chosen runner from the Fahey yard that doesn't currently seem to have the ammunition it once had.

 

My top 3 are chosen on form, analysis of form, Course record and draw consideration, the fact they come from the Camacho, Burke and Bethell yards is significant. I think of the changing of the guard up North. The Camachos were a family who focussed on a small number of low grade horses for ages, ticking over, that was until Julie took over the mantle and focussed on a very specific type of unexposed 4 year olds initially to go to war with in the better races. Karl Burke has had his issues but has always been a top horse man, he's focussed very much on 2 year olds retaining them at 3 and then bringing some through maturity to this type of race at 4-5 and picks up some nice outside recruits too as his name and reputation grows. Ed Bethell, another family steeped in Northern racing folklore, has followed somewhat the Camacho route, getting in Owners with better funding, focusing on a niche and delivering some notable success on route.

 

So in NAQEEB a proven performer at 10 to 12 furlongs, handicapped to win and for who the intermediate trip may be ideal, THUNDER RUN 4 wins from his last 8 races, 2 out of 2 at York and who looks a lovely strong travelling horse whose ceiling could yet be higher and finally SEE THAT STORM who may be more exposed (like HAVE SECRET) but whose Course form makes him hard to leave out, all carry significant quiet confidence (Northern)

 

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York 5.25 - Sprint Handicap - Class 4 - 6 Furlongs - Good to Firm - 20 run

 

I noted 13 of the 20 runners.

 

I won't go into all of them, suffice to say I think Course form, a low to middle draw and ability to handle the ground are best options. A few drawn high like Strike, Iris Dancer and Ingelby Archie may well have been tip but for the draw, and the likes of Juan Les Pains, who as we always say finds ways not to win and the wonderful Abrahama Gold, can't be easily discounted whilst in Raatea we have one making seasonal debut off a incredibly lenient mark who must be TRACKED forwards. Manilla Scouse and others all came into the equation.

 

With 20 runners I have a top 3 and a pair to consider at bigger odds to enhanced places.

 

Top 3 are ALFA WHITEBURD who drops back in trip, Hollie Doyle is booked, has got the course form and I think stall 10 in the middle of the field and arrowhead is the prime draw area. FISCAL POLICY is strong and solid in the grade, could get a lovely tow from Stall 4 and very confident pick IF my draw bias view is correct. ROCK OPERA drawn 5 will also get a good tow into the race and is weighted to go very close. 

 

The other pair are INGLEBY ARCHIE who I anticipate will blaze trail up the far rail, lead them all a merry dance and carry the lower numbers along and if they get the fractions right, should be placing top 5 and KINGS MERCHANT who has been out of form so far this season, dropped to a very nice mark as a result, has gone to Phil Kirby and if that just stokes back any degree of enthusiasm could run a massive race at a big price to 5 places. (Speculator)

 

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TRACKERS 

 

Newmarket 2.50 Run Boy Run / Dark Thirty (tip race)

Hamilton 9.00 Alnayef