Ayr 3.35 - Scottish National - Handicap Chase - 4 miles - 23 run - Good to Soft

 

It's drying ground and Mullins runs about 25% of the field. They include the 2 favourites who are both very unexposed and upped in trip and whilst you have to fear such types I don't see either Chosen Witness and Olympic Man as being of great value with stamina to prove. 

 

Of the Irish contingent I picked out 4 and in preference order of the Irish I would rate them as SPANISH HARLEM who was 6th in this race last year as a 5 year old, a season older and whilst not yet really progressing he clearly can get round and the stamina for the trip is more assured than some. He runs off a few pounds lower this time, almost certainly a target race and I think a bit overlooked in the betting. FLASH DE TOUZAINE was a staying on 3rd in this last year after hitting a flat spot and some trouble in running, the style of that run suggests he has an excellent chance of a place at least at nice e/w odds. KLARC KENT another for Mullins who had a sighter in this race last year so we know the stamina is there and as yet untapped and he also runs off a lower mark and may just have been kept in reserve for this race. Finally for the Irish is BRANDT uo 1/2 mile in trip and visual evidence suggests he may come on for it and if a smaller Irish yard is going to take this he'd be the obvious choice.

 

For the Home side the likes of Henry's Friend for Ben Pauling and Famous Bridge for Nicky Richards are both potential improvers upped in trip but not proven to stay the trip as yet. Rock my Way ran exceptionally well at Cheltenham, this is only 2 furlongs further and on a less taxing Course but my niggle is that the horse may just have left too much behind in that race 5 weeks ago and I think he is a cracking prospect for next season. 

 

My top 3 from the UK are SURREY QUEST runners up in this last year, just beaten close home and surely primed to the day for a repeat effort. OUR POWER lasted a long way in the 2023 Grand National and is an interesting option here at a very nice price. the trip looks ideal and at 25/1 + I'd hope for a top 5 finish. MAGNA SAM returned to form to win again at Musselburgh over the New Year and is probably bets there and right handed but his ability to run well at the trip on this ground should not be overlooked. (Northern)

 

Our final agreed 1-5 in order are-: Spanish Harlem / Surrey Quest / Flash De Touzaine / Klarc Kent and Our Power.

 

----

 

Newbury 3.12 - Spring Cup - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 14 run

 

Very important to note that this race has been switched from the Straight mIle and the Round Mile and that puts a very different complexion on the Race in my opinion.

 

I looked long and hard at Ebt's Guard and Two Tempting at decent e/w prices both run well round a bend and fresh and they were not lightly discarded. Son and Classic for Richard Hannon, who must always be first and foremost in your sights here at Newbury both suggest they may need the run and might be better on Straight Tracks but very dangerous as is Metal Merchant, winner last year on the Straight Course.

 

My top 2 though are URBAN LION , drawn 1 so gets the benefit of the rail round the bend, AW fit, turf form is better than it may suggest and with that race fitness I think they will try to play "catch us if you can". PEARL HIGH is the Spring mIle winner from Doncaster so clearly fit, gets a nice low draw and although a follow up is not obvious that fitness edge, draw and a decent mark rank it second best. Clear 3rd best if you want to play enhanced places is COGITATE A DRAW in Stall 13 is the main and only real  negative. He's a improving type who may well flourish as a 4 year old and if anything comes late and "over the top" I figure it's him (RJ)

 

---

 

Newbury 4.54 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 15 run - Good To Firm

 

An interesting race and a couple of wholly unexposed 4 year olds who have had very truncated careers so far but who are being persevered with in Parkland for Andrew Balding who has had a recent AW spin and Westridge for the Gosdens who specialise in such types. Both frankly "could be anything, something or nothing".

 

Metallo with 5 AW runs in the winter will be absolutely race fit but the sum total of the form doesn't entice me in.

 

SWEET REWARD and GREAT CHIEFTAIN at the top end of the market but both e/w values are clearly the best rated for this and I think both are worth an e/w punt. With 15 runners and 4 or 5 places my third best rated and at early double figure odds is ROARIN SUCCESS, a nice mark, was fit and ready early last season and just the type Harry Charlton will expect to win races. (TA)