The Curragh 3.45 - Irish Lincolnshire - 1 mile - 27 run - Soft to Heavy

 

At first sight this is a bit of a lottery but if we analyse carefully the trends it does suggest that early season on this ground that a draw in the 20's can be an advantage, previous Course and Distance form too a bonus, clearly the ability to handle the ground and also evidence of previous Spring and early season form either fresh or off some AW or Hurdling action.

 

Applying that logic and adding that key element of "gut feel", I will have a bet on 5 of the 27, with 3 main selections and a could at smaller stakes.

 

I looked closely at the hot favourite Gleneagle Bay who is no value at 9/4 off a low draw, race specialist Raadobarg has changed Stables, Orandi has optimum trends but is on a high mark and would be the biggest danger to my final 5. The likes of Rhythm King, Smooth Tom, Independent Expert, Flying Finn(added to TRACKER); Bill Silvers and No More Porter warranted and got a close inspection of their form before being discarded from my middle list.

 

My top 5 in preference order are-

 

FLEETFOOT ticks draw, going and form boxes and has no excuses from Stall 29 unless the draw totally flips on its head (which it can do!). EARLS is a selection on pure merit, ideal draw, mark, conditions and profile, add in it's trained by man of the moment one G Cromwell, well you can almost start writing that script!. CASANOVA is a very big price but has run some cracking races here in mud and early season and late season seems to suit and could be very well handicapped and drawn to run a place at very big Odds.

 

A couple who definitely deserve a small investment are SAN AER, drawn 11 but very well handicapped and definitely unlucky in running in this race last season and if one is to come down the middle or far side, I'd want to be on this one. Finally, TITANIUM another at a big price, fit from hurdling and form on soft, high draw and a very nice Flat handicap mark.

 

Let's hope we can start the Irish Flat season with a bang! (Sean)