CHEPSTOW 2.50 - Welsh Grand National - Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 3 miles 6 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Soft

 

Always eagerly awaited and we don't get the hock deep heavy ground this year, I think the going will be that sort of dead puddling like gloopy ground that some like and others don't it will test stamina I think and that assessment has had a major bearing on my selections. It's still misty weather and that adds moisture to the ground which won't dry out with little in the way of winds.

 

Looking at the market from top to bottom, I would be concerned about the trip in this ground for the enigmatic Monbeg Genius and maybe the horse will be aimed at Cheltenham again and not bottomed out once chance has gone here, Jubilee Express is an unexposed young horse from the Yard of the excellent Sam Thomas, a 282 days off just puts me off but the Trainers prowess makes him a massive danger. We have Where It All Began also returning off a longish break of 270 days, and together with Stuzzikini who skips some big Irish races to come here but one who is untested at the trip and in this sort of ground, and Evies Vladimir, another with stamina queries, all three coming over form Ireland and therefore dangers as the Irish raiders always are.

 

Fontaine Collonges may struggle off top weight and upped in trip with an 8lbs penalty; Val Dancer and Atlanta Brave, a pair of scopey and progressive young Chasers are not lightly dismissed but may be getting a handy sighter here for future seasons and at a very big price the gradually improving No Hubs No Hoobs off 10stone 4lbs was my 5th top rated and if you wanted a poke, I would not put you off.

 

With 16 declared and enhanced places, I have a clear top 3 and a 4th as a reserve.

 

IRON BRIDGE was runner up in this last year, 36 lengths behind the runaway winner Nassalam but winner of the race between the rest, he looks to have been aimed at this race again, the Course form and proven stamina are big ticks and he runs off a mark 6lbs lower and that attracts me in expecting another bold show. GALIA DES LITEAUX come from the Skelton yard and they will be targeting a race of this nature with a good prize, especially with no Nicholls or Henderson runners in the Trainer Title chase. Two runs should have him spot on for this and I like the proven stamina he has and scope to improve. YOUR OWN STORY comes down from the Lucinda Russell yard and off a nice weight and handicap mark looks like an out and out stayer who I think they run tactically to finish, not getting involved too early and expect the horses stamina to come in to play late on hopefully running in to a place. My 4th rated is the 2021 winner and runner up last year IWILLDOIT who runs very well fresh and after running off 153 last year arrives off 147 with a very handy 7lbs claim bringing it down to its 2021 winning mark of bang on 140. I don't think he's the horse he was then but if he gets in to a rhythm can run a gallant place and he certainly knows the way around here. (Robin)

 

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LEOPARDSTOWN 3.00 - Paddy Power Chase - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - 28 run - Good to Yielding

 

The unseasonably dry ground, the possibility of mist and fog once again and the fact half the field comes from 2 yards and two thirds from 4 yards make this an incredibly tough race to fathom. I suspect at least half a dozen of the MUllins runners will need the run and may then be put in cotton wool for Cheltenham, and I've therefore looked for 2-3 here who I think may be primed for the day and the big prize.

 

I could go through 20 + of the 28 but I discounted the likes of Harantzau D'Airy and Perceval Legallois in my final draft and on another day they may have been in my final 5. I'll stick to 3 here for sporting each way bets.

 

POSITIVE THINKER a 7 year old off a mark of 129 with a good 5lbs claimer up looks worth a small punt at odds of 33-40/1 and I'd be quietly confident that this one could finish in the first 10 home or better with luck in running. MARS HARPER is the one from the two big Yards that I most fancy, I've a real soft spot for him and I think he'll be running to win this rather than to get or protect a mark. If there is one at massive Odds who may just fire then I would say FAKIR D'ELENE is a silly price and it would not be a massive surprise to see some weird and strange big priced outcomes to this race today (Sean)

 

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WETHERBY 11.50 Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles - 16 run - Good to Soft

 

Very competitive as always and at the top of the market Lets Go Joe and Glengolly arrive in great form and reoppose each other but are upped in trip and together with The Big Breac for Sue Smith are massive dangers and very likely to be the ones to beat along with Geordie Night and the returning the Questioner, but it's a race where proven stamina may come in to play.

 

At big odds the prowess of Jimmy Moffat and Mickey Hammond in this sort of race means that neither Jelski nor Royle Street can be easily discounted. I had a final short list of 5 horses and both Supreme Authority (5th rated) who steps up in trip but who could improve for it and Mersey Street, an unexposed ex 3 mile P2P horse for Jonjo who steps up to 3 miles for the first time under Rules were very closely considered and if you need a reserve pick if we have a non runner then it would definitely bt MERSEY STREET.

 

My top 3 rated though are PERCOLATOR who has excellent Course and distance form off marks in the mid 90's and who runs off a mark of 100 for the excellent Tom Midgeley, STAR VANTAGE who was noted running on in to 3rd on a first try over 3 miles last time for the equally excellent Rebecca Menzies and finally BERGENTOWN for the Candlish yard who can always find a Christmas time winner, this one is in the TRACKER and I think ready to fire! (Northern)

 

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