Musselburgh 4.25 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - Series Final - 3 miles - 15 run

 

A Final like this can be rated as a Class 2, but with most of the Qualifying races and participants having run in Class 4 races to get here, it is important to reflect that in the analysis.  

 

At the top end of the market we have PRINCE OF PERTH a facile Course and Distance winner recently and upped 6lbs but one who really looks progressive and from a Yard that could probably have 4-5 others who would see this as a stepping point. It will take a good progressive well handicapped one to beat this or possibly a lurking veteran laid out for the race.

 

Top Man Tom for Sandy Thompson has won off marks of 98 and 104 including over Course and Distance but has been clobbered up to a mark of 115. You Some Girl, one of three for Rebecca Menzies had an early season hat trick off marks of 84 and 91 (twice) but is another who may now be in the grip of the handicapper off a mark of 107, despite a 5lbs regular Claim. Fierce Warrior runs for Henderson (see side bet after the Newbury race analysis) and whilst feared by me, form figures don't cry out for an investment. Forged Well who fell in contention last time after winter wins and Edgewell, 3 times a winner already this season, also arrive off career high marks they will do well to win from.

 

Be The Difference is a likely pace setter and will take them a long way but may be better left handed and at big odds don't completely rule out another running off penalties in Punxsutawney Phil who has obliged for me twice this winter already. I was sorely tempted to include him here but may have a few quid each way as a saver bet.

 

My clear top 2 rated though are PRINCE OF PERTH, already mentioned and HOSTILE HOTELIER, who was runner up to PoP previously but whose form prior to that warrants a confident each way punt with the Yard in cracking form and again, the penalty looks on the lenient side.

 

With 15 runners and plenty of enhanced places my next 2 rated in preference order are ANAMANDA who has had plenty of promising runs here over Course and Distance and who looks very competitive weighted to run a big race again and STAR VANTAGE, who may be the least fancied of the Menzies runners in the market, but who is a thorough stayer and despite being 4 lbs of the handicap which ensures a low weight, off what could be a very lively pace, this one could finish very well up the home straight. (Northern)

 

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Newbury 4.37 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 3 miles - 14 run - Good / Good to Soft

 

A lot of unexposed and somewhat disappointing younger types in here and a few far more exposed whose form levels and marks make them interesting.

 

The likes of Geturguccion from the Alan King yard, Murphy's Milan from the Hobbs yard and Kintal from Hendersons yard with form figures of Last / PU / PU / UR head the market and whilst all have shown glimmers of promise, all have questions to answer after disappointing recent runs. They may well fulfil potential today but they do look vulnerable in terms of actual form.

 

Pachacuti for the Pipe team ended up as my 3rd best rated and is worth a small investment IF you want to play enhanced odds, or can be a handy reserve if we have a non runner. I also noted Glimpse of Gala who has dropped down in class off a fast diminishing handicap mark as one who could revive at some point and not completely discounted. 

 

My top 2 rated though are in the "exposed" category and both placed in the corresponding race last year, both return off slightly lower marks and certainly aren't progressive but both look laid out for this race again and are certainly running well enough to warrant an investment.

 

MAHLER MOON was runner up last year after a wind operation off a mark of 103. They have tinkered with the wind again and off a mark of 98, following a run over shorter just to blow the cobwebs away, I'll be disappointed if we don't place again at the very least. The same applies to the gallant veteran I'M A STARMAN 3rd off 107 last year, down to a mark of 98, but this long straight suits and the booking of Harry Cobbden for a spare ride really caught my eye. (RJ)