Mention Race Ffos Llas 4.35
Ffos Llas 4.35 7 Shotgun Paddy @ 6/1 / 8 Misty Mai @ 10/1 - small each way stake to your "mention level" - SkyBet odds to 4th.
There are 2 ways to look at this race really, with a form eye and analysis or with a pin, I think anyone who puts up any
kind of tip in this race and claims it as confident or strong is probably being as honest with you as those who write our newspapers and read
our news, so with a tongue very firmly in the cheek, lets try and analyse as best we can a veritable rogue gallery of runners.
This is Ffos Llas where "heavy means heavy" and where the unrelenting nature of the circuit means it is an end to end slog; it must be a bit
like running down two never ending tunnels with a bend at each end, and it is a Course that throws up some weird and wonderful results;
may be a pin is the best solution?. I can't be taking anything at 4-5/1 in this race and both Jennys Surprise and Cailleach Annie have to prove
they get the trip on this type of Going, some Courses are less challenging but I want to fins something firm and conclusive to base an assessment
on. The locals will no doubt look at Bob Ford and Henri Parri Morgan, well you can look at both of those, rub your head, ache your brain and ponder
until the cows come home, quite simply, they are horses that will over and over again make an absolute "chump" of you. Could they win, yes;
will they win, maybe; could you rate the degree of certainty on a scale of 100 = 1. Good Luck if you side with either; but the rationale has to
be that a pin would be the best way to pick either. Lac Sacre would have some foundation in logic but really I kept coming back to a pair in
whom it is possible to have at least a modicum of faith and trust and whose actual form stands close analysis.
SHOTGUN PADDY is not the horse he was, as a result he has dropped down the Handicap, but as we saw last time he is still competent
and competitive enough in this Grade to plod on and on, he won't give up and he won't throw his toys out of the pram, what you see is what
you get and at 6/1 with Sky offering odds to 4th, he looks the nearest thing to rock as you will find in this desolate place. MISTY MAI has
some Course form, always reminds me of a slugger and a slogger, what it lacks in class, and politely it doesn't have much, in makes up for
in sheer heart and guts and on this day, I'd rather go that way than something like Bob Ford or Henri Parri Morgan, the equine equivalent
of a rabbit in the headlights once the pressure is on. If some of the rogues have an "on day" they can win, but 9 times out of 10 in a race
of this type, I want something that I know is at least trying and hence SHOTGUN PADDY and MISTY MAI...but very small stakes only!