Newton Abbot 3.30

Newton Abbot 3.30 Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 5 + 1/2 Furlongs - 16 declared ( now 15 runners) - Good
 
There are a few in here who may welcome the better Ground but who will probably need the run but who could win small races at nice Odds when tuned up.
 
I'd certainly be watching Comeragh Lad, who is a 3 mile P2P winner and 4th at Exeter in the Autumn as a type to do well once tuned up and it will surely benefit from this run today. The same should apply to Crossfirehurricane off a break of 142 days and Katies Escape from the Hobbs yard who should appreciate summer ground more and who could be in the "anything" category.
 
The Frosts are always to be feared here and Alex Thorne gets the leg up on What A Baloo, it's hard to know so far what the best trip is for this one, more than a hunch this intermediate trip might suit and another to keep an eye on for your summer jumping Trackers. 
 
In terms of actual bets, the favourites are Beau Haze who gets a 5lb penalty for a nice win at Hereford last time but who wasn't winning anything other than out of turn there and possibly not the type therefore to suddenly run up a sequence. At the price I can leave it out of calculations although clearly fit and well. The same applies to Clongowes whose 3rd place at Plumpton may turn out to be rather flattering in what looks a deeper field here.
 
The pair for me are BIG PICTURE who has won on good off a mark of 78 at Market Rasen, and who subsequently won on soft off a mark in the mid 80's when they said it needed soft. That hides the fact though that it was Ground very similar to this at MR and with lush turf cover the mark of 81 here looks very exploitable. The other one I like is MYSTIC COURT who has won a P2P over 20 furlongs on Good, is race fit and who should be spot on for this race off a decent mark, so absolutely no excuses or reason why it shouldn't be very competitive.
 
TRACKERS - MYSTIC COURT + BIG PICTURE